Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors
Monday, January 5, 2026 | 7:30 PM ET | Scotiabank Arena
Key Information
- Trae Young OUT (quadriceps) - Hawks missing their primary playmaker and leading scorer
- Kristaps Porzingis OUT - Second star absence compounds offensive concerns
- Jakob Poeltl OUT (back) - Raptors without starting center, but have adapted well
- Toronto 3-0 vs ATL this season - Complete domination in H2H, including 134-117 blowout 2 days ago
- Raptors scoring trend UP 19% - From 101.2 PPG to 120.4 PPG over last 5 games
- Hawks on 3-in-4 nights - Third game in 4 days for Atlanta
Matchup Overview
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-20 | 21-15 | TOR |
| L6 Record | 2-4 | 4-2 | TOR |
| Net Rating (L6) | -1.2 | +4.8 | TOR |
| Off Rating (L6) | 115.2 | 117.9 | TOR |
| Def Rating (L6) | 116.4 | 113.1 | TOR |
| Pace (L6) | 104.2 | 98.9 | ATL |
| Rest Days | 1 | 1 | Even |
Season Series (TOR leads 3-0)
| Date | Location | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | ATL | TOR 138-118 | Season opener blowout |
| Nov 7 | ATL | TOR 109-97 | Hawks held under 100 |
| Jan 3 | TOR | TOR 134-117 | Barnes/Ingram/Barrett combined 78 pts |
Pattern: Toronto has won all three matchups by an average of 19.7 points. The Hawks have not been competitive in this series.
Injury Analysis
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | Status | Impact | |——–|——–|——–| | Trae Young | OUT (quad) | Critical - 27.4 PPG, primary playmaker | | Kristaps Porzingis | OUT | High - Spacing/shooting/rim protection | | N’Faly Dante | OUT (ACL) | Season-ending | | Luke Kennard | GTD (back) | Moderate - Bench shooter |
Assessment: Hawks missing their two best players. Without Young’s playmaking (45+ PPG combined with assists), offense is heavily reliant on Jalen Johnson (30 pts last game) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (31 pts). Depth scoring from Dyson Daniels and Vit Krejci will need to step up.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | Status | Impact | |——–|——–|——–| | Jakob Poeltl | OUT (back) | Moderate - Starting C, rebounding | | Chucky Hepburn | Day-to-day | Minor - Guard depth |
Assessment: Poeltl’s absence hurts rebounding (TOR has 30.3% ORB% in L6 despite this), but Sandro Mamukelashvili (12 reb, 8 ast last game) has stepped up excellently. Core of Barnes/Ingram/Barrett/Quickley fully healthy.
Four Factors Analysis (L6)
Offense
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Better | |——–|—–|—–|——–| | eFG% | 56.5% | 51.6% | ATL | | TOV% | 12.6% | 10.0% | TOR | | ORB% | 19.7% | 30.3% | TOR | | FT Rate | 0.17 | 0.208 | TOR |
Defense
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Better | |——–|—–|—–|——–| | Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.6% | TOR | | Opp TOV% | 11.9% | 12.8% | TOR | | DRB% | 71.8% | 77.5% | TOR | | Opp FT Rate | 0.213 | 0.235 | ATL |
Analysis: Toronto’s elite offensive rebounding (30.3%) creates second-chance opportunities. Hawks’ turnover issues compound without Young’s ball security. Raptors’ defensive rebounding (77.5%) limits transition opportunities.
Home/Away Splits
Atlanta (Road)
- Record: 11-9
- PPG: 120.3
- Opp PPG: 119.0
- Off Rating: 116.2
- Def Rating: 114.9
- Note: Hawks actually play better on the road than at home (6-11)
Toronto (Home)
- Record: 11-8
- PPG: 114.7
- Opp PPG: 112.8
- Off Rating: 115.6
- Def Rating: 114.0
- Note: Raptors solid at home, opponents average just 112.8 PPG
Rest Performance
Atlanta (1 Day Rest)
- Record: 11-10
- PPG: 121.2
- Opp PPG: 118.6
Toronto (1 Day Rest)
- Record: 13-8
- PPG: 117.7
- Opp PPG: 113.2
Both teams on equal rest. However, ATL playing 3rd game in 4 days while TOR has had more manageable schedule (2 games in 7 days vs ATL’s 3).
Trends
Atlanta Hawks
- Scoring: Stable at 121.6 PPG over last 10 games
- Rating Trend: Improving - Net rating went from -10.4 to +1.3 (second half of L10)
- Concern: Lost by 17 to Toronto just 2 days ago
Toronto Raptors
- Scoring: IMPROVING +19% (101.2 to 120.4 PPG)
- Offense: Up 12.1 points in Off Rating
- Form: 4-2 in L6, comfortable wins over GSW (OT), ORL, MIA
Last Game (Jan 3, 2026)
Toronto 134, Atlanta 117
Key Performers
| Player | Team | PTS | REB | AST | |——–|——|—–|—–|—–| | Brandon Ingram | TOR | 29 | 9 | 1 | | RJ Barrett | TOR | 29 | 4 | 1 | | Scottie Barnes | TOR | 20 | 7 | 4 | | N. Alexander-Walker | ATL | 31 | 4 | 3 | | Jalen Johnson | ATL | 30 | 7 | 9 | | Dyson Daniels | ATL | 20 | 5 | 12 |
Takeaway: Toronto dominated despite missing Poeltl. Their three-headed monster (Ingram/Barrett/Barnes) combined for 78 points. Hawks got individual performances but couldn’t match depth or defense.
Price Discovery
Market Assessment
| Market | Line | Fair Value | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TOR -7.5 | TOR -8.5 | TOR |
| Moneyline | TOR -320 | TOR -400 | TOR |
| Total | 225.5 | 224 | Under lean |
Spread Calculation
- Base matchup: Toronto 3-point advantage (net rating differential)
- Home court: +3 for Toronto
- Injury adjustment: +4 for Toronto (Young/Porzingis OUT)
- H2H dominance: +1.5 adjustment
- Schedule fatigue (ATL 3-in-4): +1
- Fair Spread: TOR -8.5 to -9
Total Calculation
- ATL L6 avg: 119.8 PPG scored, 121.0 PPG allowed
- TOR L6 avg: 118.7 PPG scored, 114.0 PPG allowed
- Last H2H: 251 total
- Injury adjustments: ATL offense -4 (Young/KP OUT)
- Pace adjustment: ATL plays faster, but TOR controls tempo at home
- Fair Total: 222-226 (slight Under lean)
Betting Analysis
Best Bet: Toronto -7.5 (-110)
Rationale:
- Injury disparity is massive - Hawks missing Young AND Porzingis vs Raptors missing only Poeltl
- 3-0 H2H with average margin of 19.7 points - This isn’t close
- Schedule spot favors Toronto - ATL on 3-in-4, TOR had 2 days rest before last game
- Toronto trending up offensively - 19% scoring increase over last 5 games
- Atlanta’s defense can’t stop Toronto’s stars - Barnes/Ingram/Barrett have owned this matchup
Risk factors:
- Hawks played well on the road this year (11-9)
- Could see some rust/letdown from TOR after back-to-back wins
- Alexander-Walker/Johnson capable of explosive games
Confidence: 7.5/10
Secondary Play: Under 225.5 (-110)
Rationale:
- Hawks’ offensive ceiling limited without Young’s playmaking
- Toronto controls pace at home (98.9 pace vs ATL’s 104.2)
- January 3 game was 251 total but Young played and scored
- If Hawks get blown out early, garbage time could suppress scoring
Risk factors:
- Toronto’s offense is hot (120.4 PPG in last 5)
- Hawks still scoring 121+ without Young in recent games
Confidence: 5.5/10 (lean only)
Market Strategy
| Bet | Target Line | Stake | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR -7.5 | -7.5 or better | 2 units | Now |
| TOR -7 | Buy the half-point | 1.5 units | Alt line |
| Under 225.5 | 226+ | 0.5 units | Wait for movement |
Avoid:
- Moneyline at -320 (no value on short price for 7.5-pt favorite)
- Props dependent on Trae Young playing (he’s OUT)
Game Projection
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 26 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 106 |
| TOR | 31 | 30 | 29 | 26 | 116 |
Projected Final: Toronto 116, Atlanta 106
- Spread: TOR -10
- Total: 222
Summary
Toronto is the clear side here. The Hawks are short-handed (Young and Porzingis both OUT), on a compressed schedule, and have lost all three meetings this season by an average of nearly 20 points. The Raptors are healthy in their core, playing at home, and riding an offensive surge.
The 7.5-point spread undervalues Toronto’s advantages. While the Hawks have been competitive on the road this season, that success came largely with Young orchestrating the offense. Without him, and facing a Toronto team that has dominated this matchup, expect the Raptors to cover comfortably.
Final Call: Toronto -7.5 (2 units)
Analysis generated: January 5, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, MCP game statistics