CHI @ BOS | January 5, 2026

Key Information

Critical Injury Impact - Chicago Bulls

• Josh Giddey (OUT) - Hamstring, re-evaluation in 2 weeks. Primary playmaker and triple-double threat. His absence removes Chicago’s best secondary creator and transition facilitator.
• Zach Collins (OUT) - Sprained right toe, at least 10 more days. Starting-caliber big who provides spacing and rim protection.
• Coby White (QUESTIONABLE) - Calf. If out, severely depletes backcourt scoring punch. White has been a key offensive catalyst.
• Jalen Smith (OUT) - Concussion protocol. Rotation big, reduces frontcourt depth.
• Trentyn Flowers (OUT) - Knee. Young rotation piece sidelined.
• Noa Essengue (OUT) - Shoulder surgery, season-ending.

Boston Celtics Injury Situation

• Jayson Tatum (OUT) - Achilles, season status uncertain. However, Celtics have been rolling without him.
• Ron Harper Jr. (Day-to-Day) - Calf, listed as available. Minimal impact.

Narrative Summary

Chicago visits Boston severely shorthanded, missing their primary playmaker (Giddey), key scorer (possibly White), and multiple rotation bigs. Boston, despite losing Tatum for likely the season, has found their identity with Jaylen Brown (50 pts in last game) and a deep rotation. The Celtics are 5-1 in L6 with an elite +13.3 net rating and just demolished the Clippers 146-115. Chicago’s 3-in-4 and 4-in-6 schedule density adds fatigue concerns.

Situational Factors

Edge: BOS - Both on 1 day rest, but Chicago on a grueling schedule (3-in-4) with extensive injuries while Boston is home after an emphatic road win.

Team Profiles

Chicago Bulls (17-18, 3rd Central)

Four Factors (L6):

• eFG%: 52.9%
• TOV%: 11.4%
• ORB%: 22.1%
• FT Rate: 0.176

Alarming Trend: Chicago’s offense has cratered from 130 PPG in the first half of their L10 to just 111.6 PPG in the recent half. Off rating dropped from 123.3 to 111.1.

Boston Celtics (22-12, 2nd Atlantic)

Four Factors (L6):

• eFG%: 59.1% (elite)
• TOV%: 10.9% (clean)
• ORB%: 29.2% (aggressive)
• FT Rate: 0.202

Hot Streak: Boston’s offense has surged from 110 PPG to 128.6 PPG in recent games. Jaylen Brown scored 50 in the last game. They’re generating high-quality looks with 59.1% eFG%.

Head-to-Head

Common Opponents (15 teams): | Team | Record | PPG | Opp PPG | |——|——–|—–|———| | CHI | 12-14 | 117.3 | 120.5 | | BOS | 16-11 | 116.6 | 110.9 |

Boston has been significantly better against shared opponents, outscoring the opposition by 5.7 PPG while Chicago is outscored by 3.2 PPG.

Home/Away Splits

Chicago on the Road

• Record: 7-9
• PPG: 123.8
• Opp PPG: 126.3
• Off Rating: 117.0
• Def Rating: 119.4

Boston at Home

• Record: 10-5
• PPG: 118.6
• Opp PPG: 111.7
• Off Rating: 123.8
• Def Rating: 116.6

Boston is a solid home team with +6.9 PPG differential at TD Garden.

Rest Performance Splits

Boston thrives on 1-day rest (68.4% win rate), while Chicago struggles (47.6% win rate).

Roster Context

Chicago Bulls Active Roster

Guards: Ayo Dosunmu, Jevon Carter, Tre Jones, Kevin Huerter Forwards: Matas Buzelis, Patrick Williams, Julian Phillips, Dalen Terry, Isaac Okoro, Emanuel Miller Centers: Nikola Vucevic, Lachlan Olbrich

Notable: Without Giddey and possibly White, playmaking falls to Dosunmu and Vucevic. Huerter provides 3-point shooting but limited creation.

Boston Celtics Active Roster

Guards: Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Anfernee Simons Forwards: Sam Hauser, Jordan Walsh, Josh Minott, Chris Boucher, Baylor Scheierman Centers: Neemias Queta, Xavier Tillman, Luka Garza

Notable: Brown has been sensational (50 pts last game, averaging 30+ over hot stretch). Pritchard had 42 pts recently. This team has adapted well post-Tatum.

Pace & Scoring Projection

Implied Totals Based on L6 Efficiency:

• CHI projected: ~109 (111.6 off rating in L6, road regression expected)
• BOS projected: ~127 (129.3 off rating, home boost)
• Combined: ~236

However, Chicago’s injuries and defensive struggles could push this toward a blowout.

Market Analysis

Fair Lines (Calculated)

Based on L6 net ratings, home advantage, and situational factors:

Expected Market Lines

Typical market pricing would show:

• BOS -9.5 to -11.5
• Total: 226-230
• BOS ML: -500 to -600

Betting Edges

Primary Recommendation: BOS -10.5 or better

Edge Rating: B+

Rationale:

1. Injury disparity is massive. Chicago missing Giddey (their best playmaker), likely White (scoring punch), Collins, and Smith creates a skeleton crew.
2. Form divergence. Boston 5-1 in L6 with +13.3 net rating vs Chicago’s 3-3 with -4.6 net rating.
3. Trend confirmation. Chicago’s offense has collapsed (130 PPG -> 111.6 PPG in L10), while Boston’s has surged (110 PPG -> 128.6 PPG).
4. Situational advantage. Boston home, fresh off emphatic 146-115 road win. Chicago on 3-in-4 schedule density.
5. Rest splits favor Boston. BOS is 13-6 on 1-day rest; CHI is 10-11.

Concern: Boston’s defense has been slightly porous (115.9 def rating in L6), which could keep Chicago close enough in garbage time.

Secondary Look: OVER 227 (if available)

Edge Rating: B-

Rationale:

• Boston’s L6 combined games averaging 236 total points
• Chicago allows 116.2 def rating (very poor)
• Even garbage time could inflate scoring

Concern: Chicago’s injuries could tank their offensive output. If they can’t score, total stays low despite Boston’s output.

Avoid: Chicago ML

Even at +400+, the talent and health disparity makes this a trap.

Risk Assessment

Conclusion

Boston is the clear side here. The Celtics are playing their best basketball since losing Tatum, with Jaylen Brown emerging as a true alpha scorer. Chicago arrives depleted, on a tough schedule, and in freefall offensively. This has blowout potential.

Final Recommendation:

• BOS -10.5 (-110) - 2 units
• BOS Team Total OVER 122.5 (if available) - 1 unit

Report generated: January 5, 2026 Data sources: bball-stats MCP, ESPN, RotoWire

REPORT_FILE: data/reports/CHI_at_BOS.md