Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, January 5, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET | Paycom Center
Key Information
Critical Context
- OKC is the NBA’s best team (30-5) on a 4-game win streak with dominant home performance (17-2)
- Charlotte playing third game in four nights (3-in-4 schedule flag) - fatigue factor for road team
- Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC’s starting C) questionable with calf injury - significant impact on Thunder’s interior dominance
- Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel has emerged as go-to scorer averaging 19.4 PPG on elite 42.8% from three
- H2H this season: OKC won 109-96 in Charlotte on Nov 15 - Thunder dominated defensively
Injury Impact Assessment
CHARLOTTE (Significant):
- Ryan Kalkbrenner (C) - OUT (elbow) - Major loss vs OKC’s elite rim protection
- Mason Plumlee (C) - OUT (groin surgery, 6 weeks) - Depth depleted at center
- Moussa Diabate (F) - Questionable (wrist) - Key rebounder (8.1 RPG)
- Tidjane Salaun (F) - Questionable (ankle) - Rotation wing
- Kon Knueppel (G) - Questionable (hip) - If out, massive scoring void
OKLAHOMA CITY (Potentially Significant):
- Isaiah Hartenstein (C) - OUT (calf) - Major impact; averages 9.6 RPG, elite screen-setter
- Jaylin Williams (F) - OUT (heel) - Depth/energy concern
- Nikola Topic (G) - OUT (season) - Non-factor
- Thomas Sorber (C) - OUT (ACL) - Non-factor
Market Analysis
| Market | Line | Fair Value | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | OKC -15.5 | OKC -13.5 | CHO +15.5 (+2.0) |
| Total | 232.5 | 226 | UNDER (-6.5) |
| Moneyline | OKC -1149 / CHO +714 | — | No value |
Team Profiles
Charlotte Hornets (12-23)
| Metric | L6 Games | Season | |——–|———-|——–| | Record | 3-3 | 12-23 | | PPG | 119.5 | 115.8 | | Opp PPG | 115.0 | 118.4 | | Off Rating | 125.3 | 116.4 | | Def Rating | 120.5 | 119.0 | | Net Rating | +4.9 | -2.6 | | Pace | 95.4 | 97.9 |
Recent Results (L6):
- Jan 3: W @ CHI 112-99 ✅
- Jan 2: L @ MIL 121-122 ❌
- Dec 31: L vs GSW 125-132 ❌
- Dec 29: L vs MIL 113-123 ❌
- Dec 26: W @ ORL 120-105 ✅
- Dec 23: W vs WAS 126-109 ✅
Trends:
- Offense trending UP (+6.0 ORtg last 5 games vs first 5)
- Defense trending DOWN (+4.1 DRtg - getting worse)
- Road record: 5-13 (poor)
- On 1 day rest: 4-14 (horrible - key today)
Four Factors (L6):
- eFG%: 56.2% (good)
- TOV%: 10.9% (excellent ball security)
- ORB%: 31.0% (elite second chances)
- FT Rate: 0.209 (below average)
Oklahoma City Thunder (30-5)
| Metric | L6 Games | Season | |——–|———-|——–| | Record | 4-2 | 30-5 | | PPG | 122.7 | 121.9 | | Opp PPG | 111.5 | 107.2 | | Off Rating | 121.9 | 120.9 | | Def Rating | 111.7 | 105.9 | | Net Rating | +10.2 | +15.0 | | Pace | 100.5 | 101.4 |
Recent Results (L6):
- Jan 2: W @ GSW 131-94 ✅ (dominant)
- Dec 31: W vs POR 124-95 ✅
- Dec 29: W vs ATL 140-129 ✅
- Dec 28: W vs PHI 129-104 ✅
- Dec 25: L vs SAS 102-117 ❌
- Dec 23: L @ SAS 110-130 ❌
Trends:
- Offense trending UP (+9.8 ORtg recent vs earlier)
- Defense trending UP (-5.4 DRtg improvement)
- Home record: 17-2 (dominant)
- On 2+ days rest: 8-1 (elite with rest advantage)
Four Factors (L6):
- eFG%: 58.0% (elite)
- TOV%: 11.6% (slightly careless lately)
- ORB%: 24.1% (below average - Hartenstein absence?)
- FT Rate: 0.187 (below average)
Head-to-Head
Season Series: OKC leads 1-0
| Date | Location | Score | Key Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 | Charlotte | OKC 109-96 | SGA 33pts, Hartenstein 12reb |
Analysis: OKC’s defense dominated, holding CHO to 96 points (well below their average). Hartenstein’s presence was crucial with 12 rebounds. His absence tonight levels the rebounding battle.
Common Opponents Analysis
| Opponent | CHO Result | OKC Result |
|---|---|---|
| ATL | L 110-113 | W 140-129 |
| GSW | L 125-132 | W 131-94 |
| IND | L 118-127 | W 141-135 (2OT) |
| LAC | L 116-131 | W 126-107 |
| LAL | L 111-121 | W 121-92 |
| MIN | L 105-122 | W 113-105 |
| NOP | L 112-116 | W 137-106 |
| PHI | L 121-125 | W 129-104 |
| UTA | W 126-103 | W 144-112 |
| WAS | W 139-113, 126-109 | W 127-108 |
| CHO vs Common: 4-8 | OKC vs Common: 16-1 |
The gap is enormous. OKC outscores common opponents by +19.6 PPG differential vs CHO.
Schedule & Rest Analysis
| Team | Rest Days | Schedule Context | Fatigue Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHO | 1 day | 3rd game in 4 nights | ⚠️ HIGH |
| OKC | 2 days | Light schedule | ✅ FRESH |
Charlotte’s Schedule:
- Jan 3 @ CHI (played)
- Jan 2 @ MIL (played)
- Jan 5 @ OKC (tonight - 3rd in 4)
- Jan 7 vs TOR
OKC’s Schedule:
- Jan 2 @ GSW (played)
- Jan 5 vs CHO (tonight)
- Jan 7 vs UTA
Rest Performance:
- CHO on 1 day rest: 4-14 (brutal)
- OKC on 2+ days rest: 8-1 (elite)
Pace & Projected Total
| Factor | Value | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| CHO Pace (L6) | 95.4 | Slow |
| OKC Pace (L6) | 100.5 | Fast |
| Blended Pace | ~97.5 | Moderate |
| CHO Def Efficiency | 120.5 | Poor |
| OKC Def Efficiency | 111.7 | Good |
Pace Analysis:
- Charlotte plays slow (95.4) - among slowest in L6
- OKC plays fast (100.5) - home team usually controls pace
- Expected possessions: ~98-100
Total Projection:
- OKC offense vs CHO defense: ~122 points
- CHO offense vs OKC defense: ~104 points (Hartenstein absence helps slightly)
- Projected Total: 226 points
Market at 232.5 is inflated by OKC’s recent high-scoring wins. But those came against worse defenses and with Hartenstein. Charlotte slows pace significantly.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Play: UNDER 232.5 (-110)
Rating: 4/5 stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Rationale:
- Charlotte’s slow pace (95.4) will drag possessions down
- Hartenstein’s absence hurts OKC’s second-chance points and rim protection
- CHO fatigue = less offensive efficiency on road
- First meeting was 205 total (109-96) with Hartenstein playing
- Fair value ~226; market overreacting to OKC’s recent blow-outs
Risk: If CHO’s young guards (Ball, Knueppel) catch fire, could push over.
Secondary Play: CHO +15.5 (-110)
Rating: 3/5 stars ⭐⭐⭐
Rationale:
- 15.5 is a large number even for elite home favorites
- Hartenstein absence impacts OKC’s interior dominance significantly
- Charlotte has been competitive in losses (lost by 1, 7, 10 in last 3 L)
- LaMelo Ball factor - capable of single-handedly keeping games close
- Knueppel shooting 42.8% from three provides random variance
Risk: CHO fatigue could lead to blowout. OKC still has SGA, Holmgren, Jalen Williams.
Avoid: OKC Moneyline (-1149)
No value laying -1149 in any spot. 8% implied win probability for CHO is too low; they’ll win outright ~12-15% of the time with a hot Ball/Knueppel game.
Star Player Projections
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
| Stat | Projection | Line | Lean | |——|————|——|——| | Points | 31 | 29.5 | OVER | | Assists | 6 | 5.5 | PUSH | | Rebounds | 6 | 5.5 | OVER |
Notes: Without Hartenstein, SGA will dominate usage. CHO lacks rim protector with Kalkbrenner out.
Chet Holmgren (OKC)
| Stat | Projection | Line | Lean | |——|————|——|——| | Points | 22 | 20.5 | OVER | | Rebounds | 9 | 8.5 | OVER | | Blocks | 3 | 2.5 | OVER |
Notes: With Hartenstein out, Holmgren should feast on CHO’s center-less roster.
LaMelo Ball (CHO)
| Stat | Projection | Line | Lean | |——|————|——|——| | Points | 24 | 22.5 | OVER | | Assists | 9 | 8.5 | OVER | | Rebounds | 6 | 5.5 | PUSH |
Notes: OKC’s perimeter defense with Dort/Caruso makes scoring tough, but LaMelo’s usage will be high.
Final Summary
| Play | Line | Rating | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNDER 232.5 | -110 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | HIGH |
| CHO +15.5 | -110 | ⭐⭐⭐ | MEDIUM |
| SGA Over 29.5 pts | -115 | ⭐⭐⭐ | MEDIUM |
Key Factors:
- ✅ Hartenstein absence (major for OKC)
- ✅ CHO fatigue (3rd in 4 nights)
- ✅ Pace mismatch favors under
- ⚠️ OKC home dominance (17-2)
- ⚠️ CHO road struggles (5-13)
Bottom Line: This is a classic “buy low on the underdog” spot due to injury + pace factors, but the Under is the cleaner play. OKC wins by 10-14 in a 108-96 type game.
Report generated: January 5, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, CBS Sports