Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers
January 5, 2026 | 8:30 PM ET | Wells Fargo Center
Key Information
Critical Storyline: Jokic-less Nuggets face surging Sixers on 3-game win streak
- Denver is devastated by injuries: Nikola Jokic (hyperextended knee, 4+ weeks), Jonas Valanciunas (calf strain, 4 weeks), and Cameron Johnson (knee contusion) are all OUT. Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun just returned from extended absences
- Philadelphia is HOT: Sixers won 3 straight on the road including impressive wins at Memphis (OT), Dallas, and New York. Tyrese Maxey averaging 36+ PPG in this stretch
- VJ Edgecombe breakout: Rookie phenom has scored 23+ in each of the last 3 games; CBS/SI articles highlight him as “biggest dark horse in the East”
- Joel Embiid PROBABLE: Listed probable for this game - his first dunk of the season came in the last game. He’s had 22+ points in 7 straight
- Denver’s road trip disaster: Nuggets are 1-4 on their 7-game road trip; dropped to 3-6 in last 9 games overall
Betting Lines
| Market | Line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | PHI -12.5 | Steep but reflects Jokic absence |
| Total | 229.5 | Elevated despite DEN injuries |
| Moneyline | DEN +439 / PHI -599 | Heavily juiced toward home favorite |
Team Profiles
Denver Nuggets (23-11 season, 2-4 L6)
| Stat | L6 Avg | Trend | |——|——–|——-| | Pace | 99.5 | Slow without Jokic | | ORtg | 120.9 | Declining (-4.6 recent) | | DRtg | 124.9 | Collapsing (+4.2 worse) | | Net | -4.0 | Was +4.1 five games ago | | PPG | 122.5 | Down from 124.0 |
Four Factors (L6):
- eFG%: 57.0% (elite shooting)
- TOV%: 11.6% (disciplined)
- ORB%: 21.7% (below average)
- FT Rate: 0.231 (moderate)
Key Absences: | Player | Status | Impact | |——–|——–|——–| | Nikola Jokic | OUT (knee) | 29.6 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 11.0 APG - MVP candidate | | Jonas Valanciunas | OUT (calf) | Backup C, 10+ MPG | | Cameron Johnson | OUT (knee) | Starting SF role | | Tamar Bates | OUT (foot) | Rotation guard |
Available Returns:
- Aaron Gordon: Returned from bench (20 pts, 21 min vs BRK) - not 100%
- Christian Braun: Started (3 pts, 24 min) - rust visible
Rest: 2 days (last played Jan 4 @ BRK, L 115-127)
Philadelphia 76ers (19-14 season, 3-3 L6)
| Stat | L6 Avg | Trend | |——|——–|——-| | Pace | 100.3 | Standard | | ORtg | 114.6 | Stable | | DRtg | 116.8 | Slight decline (+3.2) | | Net | -2.1 | Improving on road trip | | PPG | 117.3 | Up to 130.7 last 3 |
Four Factors (L6):
- eFG%: 53.0% (below average)
- TOV%: 12.1% (acceptable)
- ORB%: 25.7% (strong on glass)
- FT Rate: 0.227 (moderate)
Injury Report: | Player | Status | Impact | |——–|——–|——–| | Joel Embiid | PROBABLE | 27+ PPG when playing | | Kelly Oubre Jr. | OUT (knee) | Wing depth | | Trendon Watford | OUT (adductor) | Forward depth |
Available:
- Tyrese Maxey: 31.1 PPG (leads league in MPG at 39.8)
- VJ Edgecombe: 23+ PPG in last 3 (ROY candidate)
- Paul George: Healthy and contributing
- Andre Drummond: 12+ RPG
Rest: 1 day (last played Jan 3 @ NYK, W 130-119)
Situational Analysis
Schedule Context
| Factor | Denver | Philadelphia | |——–|——–|————–| | Rest | 2 days | 1 day | | B2B | No | No | | Recent Load | 5 games in 12 days | 5 games in 11 days | | Travel | 7-game road trip (game 6) | Returning home |
Home/Away Splits
| Team | Home Record | Away Record | Key Metric | |——|————-|————-|————| | DEN | 10-5 | 13-6 | Away DRtg: 119.6 | | PHI | 9-8 | 10-6 | Home DRtg: 115.1 |
Rest Performance
| Team | 0 Days | 1 Day | 2+ Days | |——|——–|——-|———| | DEN | 3-2 (126 PPG) | 14-7 (122.6 PPG) | 6-1 (128.7 PPG) | | PHI | 4-2 (121.3 PPG) | 8-7 (117.9 PPG) | 6-5 (113.5 PPG) |
Head-to-Head
No meetings this season. Denver has won last 3 meetings historically.
Recent Form
Denver (2-4 L6)
| Date | Opp | Result | Key Notes | |——|—–|——–|———–| | Jan 4 | @BRK | L 115-127 | No Jokic; Murray 27p/16a | | Jan 2 | @CLE | L 108-113 | No Jokic; Murray 34p | | Dec 31 | @TOR | W 106-103 | No Jokic; Watson 24p | | Dec 29 | @MIA | L 123-147 | Blowout loss; defense collapsed | | Dec 27 | @ORL | L 126-127 | Heartbreaker | | Dec 25 | MIN | W 142-138 OT | Jokic 56p (last game) |
Trend: 1-4 without Jokic; averaging 115.5 PPG in those games
Philadelphia (3-3 L6)
| Date | Opp | Result | Key Notes | |——|—–|——–|———–| | Jan 3 | @NYK | W 130-119 | Maxey 36p; Embiid dunk | | Jan 1 | @DAL | W 123-108 | Maxey 34/8/10 | | Dec 30 | @MEM | W 139-136 OT | Embiid 34p; Edgecombe clutch | | Dec 28 | @OKC | L 104-129 | Blowout by elite team | | Dec 26 | @CHI | L 102-109 | Late collapse | | Dec 23 | BRK | L 106-114 | Home loss |
Trend: Won 3 straight on road trip; 130.7 PPG in wins
Statistical Comparison
| Category | Denver L6 | PHI L6 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Rating | -4.0 | -2.1 | PHI +1.9 |
| Pace | 99.5 | 100.3 | Even |
| ORtg | 120.9 | 114.6 | DEN +6.3 |
| DRtg | 124.9 | 116.8 | PHI +8.1 |
| eFG% | 57.0% | 53.0% | DEN +4.0% |
| TOV% | 11.6% | 12.1% | DEN +0.5% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 25.7% | PHI +4.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.7% | Even |
Pace & Projection
Expected Pace: ~100 possessions (average of both teams’ recent pace)
Efficiency Projection
| Team | Est. ORtg | Possessions | Projected Points | |——|———–|————-|——————| | Denver (w/o Jokic) | 112-115 | 100 | 112-115 | | Philadelphia | 116-120 | 100 | 116-120 |
Raw Projection: PHI 118, DEN 113.5 = PHI by 4.5
Adjustments
| Factor | Impact | |——–|——–| | Jokic OUT | DEN -8 to -10 pts | | Gordon/Braun limited | DEN -2 pts | | Embiid PROBABLE | PHI +0 (priced in) | | Home court | PHI +2-3 pts | | Rest advantage | PHI +1 | | Momentum (3-game streak) | PHI +1 |
Adjusted Projection: PHI 120, DEN 107 = PHI by 13
Fair Lines & Edge Analysis
Spread
| Factor | Estimate | |——–|———-| | Fair Line | PHI -11 to -12 | | Market Line | PHI -12.5 | | Edge | DEN +12.5 has ~1.5 pts value |
The market is pricing in maximum Jokic impact. However:
- Murray is still elite (27.5 PPG in 2 Jokic-less games)
- Denver’s shooting (.570 eFG%) doesn’t disappear
- Philly’s home defense isn’t elite (115.1 DRtg at home)
Total
| Factor | Estimate | |——–|———-| | Projected Total | 227-230 | | Market Total | 229.5 | | Edge | Slight lean UNDER |
Denver without Jokic has scored 106-123 (avg 115.5); Philly defense has been leaky but Denver’s pace will slow without Jokic orchestrating.
Moneyline
DEN +439 offers value only if you believe in live dog potential - not recommended given roster state.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Play
DEN +12.5 (-110) | Confidence: Medium
Rationale:
- Double-digit road dogs cover 53%+ historically
- Murray/Gordon/Braun can keep game competitive
- Philly has blown 2 of last 6 games despite talent
- Market overreacting to Jokic absence by 1-2 points
Secondary Consideration
UNDER 229.5 (-110) | Confidence: Low-Medium
Rationale:
- Denver’s pace drops significantly without Jokic (99.5 → likely 96-97)
- Sixers may coast with big lead, reducing 4Q scoring
- Combined L6 defense allows 120.9 PPG (under pace for 229.5)
Avoid
- PHI -12.5: Too much chalk at key number
- DEN ML: Not enough value for injury-depleted team
Game Script Scenarios
Blowout (40% probability)
PHI leads 15+ by halftime, cruises to 18-22 point win. Denver’s depleted roster can’t keep pace. Result: PHI covers, Over hits
Competitive (45% probability)
Murray keeps Denver within 8-12 through 3Q. PHI pulls away in 4Q but doesn’t cover. Result: DEN +12.5 covers, Under 229.5 likely
Upset (15% probability)
Denver plays inspired ball for injured teammates; Murray goes for 40+. Result: DEN +12.5 covers easily, total varies
Key Player Matchups
| Matchup | Edge | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Maxey vs Murray | Even | Both elite scorers; Maxey fresher |
| Embiid vs Watson/Nnaji | PHI | Size mismatch without Valanciunas |
| Edgecombe vs Braun | PHI | Rookie hot, Braun rusty |
| George vs Gordon | Even | Both coming off injury concerns |
| Drummond vs Brown | PHI | Drummond will dominate boards |
Summary
This is a classic “market overreaction” spot. Denver without Jokic is obviously diminished, but:
- The market has already priced in maximum damage
- Denver’s remaining players (Murray, Gordon, Braun) are quality NBA starters
- Philadelphia’s home court advantage isn’t as strong as their record suggests (9-8)
- Double-digit spreads historically favor the dog
The 12.5 number is key - if this line were -10.5 or -11.5, we’d pass. At 12.5, there’s approximately 1-2 points of value on Denver.
Final Verdict: DEN +12.5 is the play, with cautious lean to UNDER 229.5
Analysis generated: January 5, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, CBS Sports, SI.com, Yahoo Sports