GSW @ LAC Betting Analysis
Monday, January 5, 2026 | 10:00 PM ET | Intuit Dome | Peacock
Key Information
| Factor | Insight |
|---|---|
| Line Movement | LAC -1.0 per Dimers (near pick’em) |
| Jimmy Butler Trade Impact | Butler now on GSW (acquired from MIA), adding star power alongside Curry |
| Kawhi Leonard Status | Playing at elite level (28.3 PPG, 55 PTS vs DET on Dec 28) but LAC just got blown out by BOS 146-115 |
| LAC Injuries | OUT: Bradley Beal (season-ending hip surgery), Derrick Jones Jr. (MCL sprain 6 weeks), Bogdan Bogdanovic (hamstring no timetable). Niederhauser (illness) questionable |
| GSW Injuries | OUT: Seth Curry (sciatic nerve issue 2 weeks), L.J. Cryer (low back strain) |
| Head-to-Head | GSW won first meeting 98-79 at home (Oct 28) |
| Trend Clash | LAC on 5-1 L6 run with +13.6 net rating vs GSW 4-2 L6 with -1.6 net rating |
| Schedule Density | GSW on 3-in-4, 4-in-6 (heavy legs); LAC fresh with no schedule flags |
| Pace Mismatch | GSW plays fast (99.9 pace) vs LAC slowest in league (91.6 pace) - expect pace compromise ~95 |
Game Overview
Records & Standings
| Team | Record | Last 6 | Home/Away | Trend | |——|——–|——–|———–|——-| | GSW | 19-17 | 4-2 | 8-12 road | Won 3 of last 4 | | LAC | 12-22 | 5-1 | 8-9 home | Won 5 of 6 (lost to BOS) |
Situational Factors
| Factor | GSW | LAC | Edge | |——–|—–|—–|——| | Rest Days | 1 day | 1 day | Even | | Back-to-Back | No | No | Even | | Schedule Density | 3-in-4, 4-in-6 | Clean | LAC | | Travel | Just played UTA at home | Home stand | LAC |
L6 Statistical Comparison
Offensive Profile
| Metric | GSW | LAC | Diff | |——–|—–|—–|——| | Off Rating | 118.6 | 131.5 | LAC +12.9 | | eFG% | 56.2% | 60.1% | LAC +3.9% | | TOV% | 14.0% | 10.1% | LAC +3.9% | | ORB% | 26.3% | 22.8% | GSW +3.5% | | FT Rate | 0.243 | 0.303 | LAC +6.0% | | Pace | 99.9 | 91.6 | GSW +8.3 |
Defensive Profile
| Metric | GSW | LAC | Diff | |——–|—–|—–|——| | Def Rating | 120.2 | 117.9 | LAC +2.3 | | Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 53.3% | LAC +5.3% | | Forced TOV% | 12.4% | 13.0% | LAC +0.6% | | DRB% | 76.0% | 68.5% | GSW +7.5% | | Opp FT Rate | 0.165 | 0.209 | GSW +4.4% |
Net Ratings
| Team | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Net Rtg | |——|———|———|———| | GSW | 118.6 | 120.2 | -1.6 | | LAC | 131.5 | 117.9 | +13.6 |
Recent Form & Trends
GSW Last 6 Games
| Date | Opp | Result | Score | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | |——|—–|——–|——-|———|———| | Jan 3 | UTA | W | 123-114 | 127.0 | 117.7 | | Jan 2 | OKC | L | 94-131 | 92.5 | 129.0 | | Dec 31 | @CHO | W | 132-125 | 132.9 | 125.8 | | Dec 29 | @BRK | W | 120-107 | 125.3 | 111.8 | | Dec 28 | @TOR | L OT | 127-141 | 114.3 | 126.9 | | Dec 25 | DAL | W | 126-116 | 119.7 | 110.2 |
GSW Trend: Defense declining (avg 122.2 def rtg last 5 games vs 110.6 first half of 10-game sample). Got crushed by OKC 131-94 most recently, but bounced back vs Utah.
LAC Last 6 Games
| Date | Opp | Result | Score | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | |——|—–|——–|——-|———|———| | Jan 3 | BOS | L | 115-146 | 126.7 | 160.8 | | Jan 1 | UTA | W | 118-101 | 122.2 | 104.6 | | Dec 30 | SAC | W | 131-90 | 139.8 | 96.1 | | Dec 28 | DET | W | 112-99 | 126.2 | 111.6 | | Dec 26 | @POR | W | 119-103 | 133.0 | 115.1 | | Dec 23 | HOU | W | 128-108 | 141.3 | 119.2 |
LAC Trend: Offense dramatically improved (+13.0 off rtg last 5 vs first 5). Leonard healthy and dominant. Blowout loss to Boston is outlier - Celtics shot lights out.
Rest Impact Analysis
GSW by Rest
| Rest Days | Record | PPG | Opp PPG | |———–|——–|—–|———| | 0 days (B2B) | 5-3 | 115.0 | 110.1 | | 1 day | 8-10 | 113.2 | 114.8 | | 2+ days | 5-4 | 118.9 | 116.1 |
LAC by Rest
| Rest Days | Record | PPG | Opp PPG | |———–|——–|—–|———| | 0 days (B2B) | 0-5 | 107.2 | 115.8 | | 1 day | 9-10 | 113.7 | 112.3 | | 2+ days | 3-6 | 113.0 | 117.1 |
Both teams on 1 day rest - no significant edge here.
Injury Report
GSW Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact | |——–|——–|——–| | Seth Curry | OUT (sciatic nerve) | Minimal - depth guard | | L.J. Cryer | OUT (low back) | Minimal - end of bench |
LAC Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact | |——–|——–|——–| | Bradley Beal | OUT (season-ending surgery) | MAJOR - Starting guard gone | | Derrick Jones Jr. | OUT (MCL 6 weeks) | SIGNIFICANT - Key wing defender | | Bogdan Bogdanovic | OUT (hamstring) | MODERATE - Rotation shooter | | Yanic Niederhauser | GTD (illness) | Minor - backup C |
Injury Edge: GSW - Clippers significantly shorthanded beyond Leonard/Harden/Zubac core.
Key Player Matchups
Star Power
| GSW | Stats | LAC | Stats | |—–|——-|—–|——-| | Stephen Curry | 28.8 PPG, 4.3 AST, 47% FG | Kawhi Leonard | 28.3 PPG, 3.4 AST, 50% FG | | Jimmy Butler | 19.5 PPG, 5.5 REB, 5.0 AST | James Harden | 25.7 PPG, 8.0 AST, 43% FG | | Draymond Green | 8.5 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.1 AST | Ivica Zubac | 15.2 PPG, 11.0 REB |
Key Battle: Curry vs Harden
- Curry shooting 40% from 3, 93% FT
- Harden controlling LAC offense with 8.0 AST but 3.6 TOV
- Both veterans can take over in crunch time
Head-to-Head History
Season Series: GSW leads 1-0
| Date | Location | Score | Top Performers | |——|———-|——-|—————-| | Oct 28 | GSW | GSW 98-79 | Butler 21 PTS, Curry 8 AST; Harden 20 PTS |
First meeting was dominant GSW defensive performance holding LAC to 79 points. LAC significantly different team now with Leonard healthy and playing at MVP level.
Projected Pace & Totals
Pace Analysis
| Team | L6 Pace | Season Pace | |——|———|————-| | GSW | 99.9 | ~99 | | LAC | 91.6 | ~92 |
Projected Pace: ~95-96 possessions (compromise favoring LAC’s slower style at home)
Scoring Projection
| Scenario | GSW Pts | LAC Pts | Total | |———-|———|———|——-| | If LAC controls pace (92) | 108 | 114 | 222 | | If pace compromise (96) | 112 | 118 | 230 | | If GSW pushes pace (99) | 117 | 122 | 239 |
Betting Analysis
Current Lines (via Dimers)
| Market | Line | |——–|——| | Spread | LAC -1.0 | | Moneyline | GSW 44% / LAC 56% | | Total | ~228 (estimated based on pace/efficiency) |
Four Factors Edge Analysis
| Factor | Weight | GSW | LAC | Edge | |——–|——–|—–|—–|——| | eFG% | 40% | 56.2% | 60.1% | LAC | | TOV% | 25% | 14.0% | 10.1% | LAC | | ORB% | 20% | 26.3% | 22.8% | GSW | | FT Rate | 15% | 24.3% | 30.3% | LAC |
LAC holds edge in 3 of 4 factors weighted by importance.
Sharp Angles
For LAC (-1.0)
- L6 Form: LAC 5-1 with +13.6 net rating vs GSW 4-2 with -1.6
- Leonard Dominance: 28.3 PPG on 50% shooting, just dropped 55 on DET
- Home Court: LAC scores 3.8 more PPG at home (114.3 vs 110.5)
- GSW Schedule Density: 3-in-4 and 4-in-6 creates fatigue risk
- First Meeting Context: LAC without healthy Leonard (only played Oct 28)
For GSW (+1.0)
- Head-to-Head: Won convincingly 98-79 in first meeting
- LAC Injuries: Missing Beal, DJJ, Bogdanovic - thin depth
- Bounce Back: GSW typically responds after blowout losses
- Butler Addition: Star power upgrade since first meeting
- LAC BOS Hangover: May be deflated after 31-point home loss to Celtics
Total Considerations
- LAC controls pace well (91.6 L6)
- Both teams can score in bunches
- GSW defense leaking (120.2 def rtg L6)
- LAC’s L6 off rtg of 131.5 unsustainable but reflects healthy Kawhi
Fair Value & Edge
Side
| Team | Fair Win% | Implied Odds | Fair Line | |——|———–|————–|———–| | LAC | 58% | -138 | -2.5 | | GSW | 42% | +138 | +2.5 |
Market Line: LAC -1.0 Edge: LAC -1.0 offers ~1.5 point edge vs fair value
Total
| Projection | Points | |————|——–| | Based on L6 ratings | 229-231 | | Pace-adjusted | 226-228 | | With injury discount | 224-226 |
Recommended Plays
Primary: LAC -1.0 (-110)
Confidence: 3.5/5 Reasoning: Clippers’ L6 form, Leonard’s dominance, and GSW schedule fatigue favor the home team. The 1-point line offers value on a team with significantly better recent efficiency metrics.
Secondary: Under 228 (if available)
Confidence: 3/5 Reasoning: LAC controls pace extremely well at home. GSW’s schedule density may limit transition opportunities. Expect a grind-it-out game closer to 220-225.
Avoid
- Large spreads either way (too close to call)
- GSW 1H (slow starters on road trips)
Risk Factors
- Leonard Load Management: No indications, but always a concern
- GSW Curry Explosion: Can drop 40+ any night
- Recency Bias: LAC’s 146-115 loss to BOS may not reflect true form
- Butler Chemistry: Still integrating into GSW system
- Intuit Dome Atmosphere: New arena energy variable
Final Verdict
This is a matchup of contrasting trajectories: LAC peaking at the right time with healthy Leonard and improved offense, while GSW navigates schedule density and defensive struggles. The near pick’em line respects both teams’ star power, but LAC’s L6 dominance and home court tilt this toward the Clippers.
Lean: LAC -1.0 Total: Under 228
Report generated: January 5, 2026 Data sources: ESPN, Dimers, Basketball-Reference, MCP Stats Server