NYK @ DET | January 5, 2026

Game Information

Date: Monday, January 5, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
TV: Peacock
Season Series: First meeting

Key Information

Critical Factors

Detroit’s defensive collapse: Pistons’ defensive rating has cratered from elite (102.7 in first 5 games) to poor (118.4 in last 5), a 15.7-point decline. This is the most significant trend in the matchup.
NYK missing key personnel: Josh Hart (ankle - out for re-eval), Landry Shamet (shoulder - out), and Mitchell Robinson (missed 2 of last 3) leave Knicks thin on depth. Hart’s absence removes 12.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 5.1 APG.
Detroit severely shorthanded: Jalen Duren (ankle - out), Tobias Harris (hip - out for 2 weeks), and Caris LeVert (knee - out) are all sidelined. Duren is particularly impactful (14.6 PPG, 12.4 RPG, elite rebounder).
NYK’s scheduling disadvantage: Playing 3rd game in 4 days coming off back-to-back home losses (vs ATL, vs PHI). Lost all 3 L6 games and scoring just 99 PPG in last 2.
Cunningham carrying historic load: With DET’s injuries, Cade averaging 27+ PPG, 8+ APG, 10+ RPG in recent stretch. Sustainability is questionable but he’s been exceptional.

Betting-Relevant Insights

NYK’s defensive rating has declined sharply (122.8 L6) - worst stretch of season
DET has home-court advantage with 13-3 home record (116.4 ORtg/108.5 DRtg at home)
Both teams trending toward higher-scoring games: combined L6 averages suggest 237+ point potential
NYK is 8-8 on the road; DET’s recent defensive struggles may neutralize home advantage
This line opened around DET -2.5 suggesting market expects close game despite records

Current Lines

Market	Line
Spread	DET -2.5
Moneyline	DET -147 / NYK +124
Total	234.5

Team Profiles

New York Knicks (24-12)

| Metric | Value | L6 Trend | |——–|——-|———-| | L6 Record | 3-3 | Declining from strong start | | Off Rating | 120.4 | Above season average | | Def Rating | 122.8 | Concerning regression | | Net Rating | -2.4 | Negative recent stretch | | Pace | 101.6 | Moderate | | PPG | 122.3 | High variance | | Opp PPG | 124.8 | Defensive issues |

Last 6 Games: | Date | Opp | Result | Notes | |——|—–|——–|——-| | Jan 3 | PHI | L 119-130 | Home loss | | Jan 2 | ATL | L 99-111 | Home loss - worst offensive game | | Dec 31 | @SAS | L 132-134 | Road loss - high scoring | | Dec 29 | @NOP | W 130-125 | Road win | | Dec 27 | @ATL | W 128-125 | Road win | | Dec 25 | CLE | W 126-124 | Christmas Day win |

Key Stats:

eFG%: 53.8% (solid)
TOV%: 10.8% (excellent ball security)
ORB%: 27.0% (good offensive glass work)
FT Rate: 0.222 (average)

Injuries:

Josh Hart (ankle) - OUT - Cleared for light court work, re-eval in 1 week
Landry Shamet (shoulder) - OUT - Not cleared for contact
Mitchell Robinson - QUESTIONABLE - Missed 2 of last 3 games
Trey Jemison - DAY-TO-DAY

Expected Lineup: Brunson / Bridges / Anunoby / Towns / Robinson (if available)

Detroit Pistons (25-9)

| Metric | Value | L6 Trend | |——–|——-|———-| | L6 Record | 3-3 | Coming off West Coast trip | | Off Rating | 119.1 | Solid | | Def Rating | 116.3 | Declining significantly | | Net Rating | +2.8 | Still positive | | Pace | 99.9 | Controlled | | PPG | 119.0 | Consistent | | Opp PPG | 116.0 | Elevated |

Last 6 Games: | Date | Opp | Result | Notes | |——|—–|——–|——-| | Jan 1 | MIA | L 112-118 | Home loss | | Dec 30 | @LAL | W 128-106 | Blowout road win | | Dec 28 | @LAC | L 99-112 | Road loss | | Dec 26 | @UTA | L 129-131 | OT road loss | | Dec 23 | @SAC | W 136-127 | Road win - high scoring | | Dec 22 | @POR | W 110-102 | Road win |

Key Stats:

eFG%: 56.6% (excellent)
TOV%: 13.9% (concerning - too many turnovers)
ORB%: 30.3% (elite offensive rebounding)
FT Rate: 0.238 (average)
Opp eFG%: 53.0% (decent)
Forces TOV%: 14.7% (good at forcing turnovers)

Injuries:

Jalen Duren (ankle) - OUT - Re-eval in 1 week
Tobias Harris (hip) - OUT - Re-eval in 2 weeks
Caris LeVert (knee) - OUT
Wendell Moore Jr. - DAY-TO-DAY (new 2-way signing)

Expected Lineup: Cunningham / Thompson / Green / Reed / Stewart (or C rotation)

Situational Analysis

Schedule & Rest

| Team | Rest Days | Schedule Density | B2B? | Travel | |——|———–|——————|——|——–| | NYK | 1 day | 3-in-4, heavy load | No | Road trip | | DET | 3 days | Light | No | Home after West trip |

Edge: DET has significant rest advantage. NYK played Jan 2 and Jan 3 at home before traveling.

Home/Away Splits

| Team | Record | PPG | Opp PPG | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | |——|——–|—–|———|———|———| | NYK (Away) | 8-8 | 119.1 | 117.9 | 120.0 | 118.8 | | DET (Home) | 13-3 | 119.2 | 111.3 | 116.4 | 108.5 |

Edge: DET has been dominant at home (13-3). Their home defensive rating (108.5) is far better than L6 average (116.3).

Common Opponents Performance

| Team | Record | PPG | Opp PPG | |——|——–|—–|———| | NYK | 19-10 | 120.0 | 115.2 | | DET | 20-8 | 119.0 | 112.9 |

Edge: Slight edge to DET - better record (20-8 vs 19-10) and better defensive performance vs common opponents.

Four Factors Comparison (L6)

Factor	NYK	DET	Edge
eFG%	53.8%	56.6%	DET +2.8%
TOV%	10.8%	13.9%	NYK +3.1%
ORB%	27.0%	30.3%	DET +3.3%
FT Rate	0.222	0.238	DET +0.016
Opp eFG%	58.0%	53.0%	DET +5.0%
Force TOV%	11.1%	14.7%	DET +3.6%
DRB%	75.9%	70.8%	NYK +5.1%
Opp FT Rate	0.234	0.305	NYK +0.071

Summary: DET has significant edges in shooting efficiency and forcing turnovers. NYK’s only clear advantages are taking care of the ball and defensive rebounding. DET’s concerning stat is allowing too many opponent free throws (0.305 rate).

Rating Trends (L10)

New York Knicks

| Period | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Net | |——–|———|———|—–| | First 5 | 117.5 | 119.6 | -2.1 | | Last 5 | 119.5 | 122.8 | -3.3 | | Trend | +2.0 | +3.2 (worse) | -1.2 |

Analysis: NYK’s offense has improved slightly but defense has cratered. Net rating has declined from -2.1 to -3.3. This is a team in a slump.

Detroit Pistons

| Period | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Net | |——–|———|———|—–| | First 5 | 115.6 | 102.7 | +12.9 | | Last 5 | 120.1 | 118.4 | +1.7 | | Trend | +4.5 | +15.7 (much worse) | -11.2 |

Analysis: DET’s defensive collapse is dramatic (102.7 to 118.4). However, their offense has also improved significantly. This could be road fatigue resolving now that they’re home.

Pace & Scoring Projection

Pace Calculation:

NYK L6 Pace: 101.6
DET L6 Pace: 99.9
Expected Pace: ~100.8 possessions

Efficiency-Based Projection:

NYK expected points (at their away rating of 120.0): ~121
DET expected points (at their home rating of 116.4): ~117
Raw projection: NYK 121, DET 117

Injury-Adjusted Projection:

NYK without Hart/Shamet loses ~15 PPG in bench scoring
DET without Duren/Harris/LeVert loses ~35 PPG combined (though some redistributed)
Both teams should be slightly lower scoring

Final Projection: NYK 114-117, DET 115-118

Total: ~231-235

Betting Analysis

Spread: DET -2.5

Case for DET -2.5:

Massive rest advantage (3 days vs 1 day)
Elite home record (13-3) with strong home defensive rating
Better record vs common opponents
NYK on 2-game losing streak, traveling after back-to-back home games
DET’s 4 days off should help reset defense

Case for NYK +2.5:

NYK’s roster is healthier overall (missing role players vs DET missing starters)
NYK has superior ball security (10.8% TOV vs 13.9%)
DET’s defensive collapse is significant (15.7 point decline)
Brunson/Towns/Bridges core still intact
2.5 points is a narrow margin for a competitive matchup

Fair Line Assessment: DET -1 to -2. The market at -2.5 is close to fair but may slightly overvalue Detroit.

Verdict: NYK +2.5 (-110) - Slight value. NYK’s core is intact, and DET’s injuries to Duren (rebounding monster) and Harris (veteran presence) are more impactful than NYK’s losses.

Total: 234.5

Over Case:

Both teams’ L6 averages: NYK 122.3/124.8 = 247.1; DET 119.0/116.0 = 235.0
Combined average: 241
NYK’s defensive struggles (122.8 Def Rtg)
High-scoring trends in recent games

Under Case:

Both teams missing key scorers (Hart, Duren, Harris, LeVert)
Pace projects ~100.8 (moderate)
DET home defensive rating is 108.5 (elite)
Game intensity for rivalry-feel matchup
NYK scored just 99 in last home game

Fair Total Assessment: 232-236. The 234.5 is approximately fair.

Verdict: PASS - No edge. Line is well-set. Lean Under if forced due to injury impact.

Moneyline: DET -147 / NYK +124

Implied Probabilities:

DET: 59.5%
NYK: 44.6%
Total: 104.1% (4.1% juice)

True Win Probability Estimate:

Based on home court, rest, ratings: DET ~55%, NYK ~45%
Market is pricing DET slightly high

Verdict: NYK +124 has value if you believe the injuries even out and NYK’s core can overcome the schedule disadvantage. Requires 44.6% win rate to break even; I estimate ~45% true probability. Marginal value.

Best Bets

Bet	Line	Rating	Reasoning
NYK +2.5	-110	B+	Best value. Core intact, DET’s injury situation underrated, 2.5 covers close games
NYK ML	+124	B-	Slight value, higher risk
Under 234.5	-110	C+	Lean only - injuries reduce scoring, but defensive struggles could inflate total

Recommended Plays

NYK +2.5 (-110) - 1 unit
NYK ML (+124) - 0.5 units (if seeking plus-money)

Summary

This is a matchup of two teams dealing with significant injury issues and trending in concerning directions. NYK has lost 3 of their last 6 with defensive struggles (122.8 Def Rtg), while DET has experienced a dramatic defensive collapse (15.7-point decline in Def Rtg over L10).

Key differentiators:

DET’s rest advantage (3 days vs 1) is substantial
DET’s home record (13-3) and home defensive rating (108.5) are elite
NYK’s injuries (Hart, Shamet, potentially Robinson) hurt depth but not core
DET’s injuries (Duren, Harris, LeVert) remove more aggregate production

The market has DET as a 2.5-point favorite, which feels slightly inflated given the injury situations. NYK’s star trio of Brunson, Towns, and Bridges is intact, while DET is leaning heavily on Cunningham without their starting center and key forwards.

Final Take: DET likely wins, but NYK covers the 2.5 spread in what projects as a close, competitive game between two teams in mini-slumps.

Report generated: January 5, 2026 Data current through: January 4, 2026