Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets
January 5, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET | Toyota Center
Key Information
Critical Injuries Reshape This Matchup:
- Houston loses Alperen Sengun (ankle) - OUT - Their 2nd-leading scorer (22+ PPG) and primary playmaker at center. Steven Adams is questionable with ankle issues, leaving HOU thin at the 5.
- Phoenix still missing Grayson Allen (knee) and Jalen Green (hamstring) - Both traded-for pieces remain sidelined, limiting backcourt depth.
- Fred VanVleet (ACL tear) is out for the season for Houston.
Season Series Context: Houston has won both meetings convincingly (114-92, 117-98), but neither game featured full-strength rosters. The Dec 5 game had Booker out for PHO; the Nov 24 game had Durant out for HOU.
Hot Streaks Converging: Phoenix is 5-1 in their last 6 with surging offensive efficiency (+8.3 rating improvement). Houston is 4-2 but coming off a loss at Dallas.
Matchup Overview
| PHO | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-14 | 21-11 |
| L6 Record | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| Rest Days | 3 | 2 |
| Back-to-Back | No | No |
Head-to-Head (Season Series: HOU leads 2-0)
| Date | Location | Score | Key Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | @ PHO | HOU 114-92 | Durant OUT (HOU), Allen/Green OUT (PHO) |
| Dec 5 | @ HOU | HOU 117-98 | Booker OUT (PHO), Sengun OUT (HOU) |
Statistical Comparison (Last 6 Games)
| Metric | PHO | HOU | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 99.0 | 94.1 | PHO (+4.9) |
| Off Rating | 122.7 | 123.3 | HOU (+0.6) |
| Def Rating | 111.4 | 115.1 | PHO (-3.7) |
| Net Rating | +11.3 | +8.2 | PHO (+3.1) |
| eFG% | 55.5% | 57.4% | HOU (+1.9%) |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 13.2% | PHO (-1.2%) |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 38.9% | HOU (+5.0%) |
| FT Rate | 0.185 | 0.165 | PHO (+0.020) |
| PPG | 121.2 | 115.7 | PHO (+5.5) |
| Opp PPG | 110.3 | 108.2 | HOU (-2.1) |
Situational Factors
Home/Away Splits
Phoenix on the Road:
- Record: 9-9
-
PPG: 113.9 Opp PPG: 117.1 -
Off Rating: 114.1 Def Rating: 117.0 - Significantly worse defensively away from home
Houston at Home:
- Record: 10-2
-
PPG: 121.3 Opp PPG: 108.7 -
Off Rating: 124.8 Def Rating: 111.9 - Elite home performance - 83% win rate
Rest Performance
PHO on 3 days rest: 5-3, 112.8 PPG HOU on 2 days rest (proxy: 2+ days): 8-3, 123.3 PPG
Trend Analysis
Phoenix (L10)
- Scoring Trend: IMPROVING (+8.2%)
- First 5 games: 110.0 PPG
- Last 5 games: 119.0 PPG
- Rating Trend: Net rating improved from -5.3 to +8.4 (swing of +13.7)
- Recent Results: W vs SAC (129-102), L @ CLE (113-129), W @ WAS (115-101), W @ NOP x2
Houston (L10)
- Scoring Trend: STABLE (-2.3%)
- First 5 games: 120.0 PPG
- Last 5 games: 117.2 PPG
- Rating Trend: Net rating improved from -3.2 to +14.3 (swing of +17.5)
- Recent Results: L @ DAL (104-110), W @ BRK (120-96), W vs IND (126-119), W vs CLE (117-100)
Injury Report
Phoenix Suns
| Player | Status | Impact | |——–|——–|——–| | Grayson Allen | OUT (knee) | Key 3PT shooter and defender | | Jalen Green | OUT (hamstring) | Primary scorer, 2-3 week re-eval |
Houston Rockets
| Player | Status | Impact | |——–|——–|——–| | Alperen Sengun | OUT (ankle) | MASSIVE - 2nd scorer, primary playmaker | | Steven Adams | Questionable (ankle) | Starting center depth | | Fred VanVleet | OUT (ACL) | Season-ending |
Roster Context
Phoenix Key Players:
- Devin Booker - Elite scorer, averaging 30+ PPG in recent games
- Dillon Brooks - Physical wing defender, scoring 25+ at times
- Mark Williams / Oso Ighodaro - Rim protection
- Collin Gillespie - Point guard duties with Allen out
- Jordan Goodwin - Energy off bench
Houston Key Players:
- Kevin Durant - Primary option, consistent 25-30 PPG
- Klay Thompson - 3PT threat, coming off strong stretch (28 PPG)
- Reed Sheppard - Rookie PG playing bigger role
- Amen Thompson - Athletic wing
- Jabari Smith Jr. - Stretch 4
- Clint Capela - Will start at C with Sengun out
Common Opponents Analysis
Both teams have played 15 common opponents:
- PHO vs Common: 18-11, 117.0 PPG, 113.2 Opp PPG
- HOU vs Common: 13-10, 118.9 PPG, 113.3 Opp PPG
Phoenix has a better record against shared opponents, though Houston scores slightly more.
Model Projections
Pace Projection
-
PHO prefers: 99.0 HOU prefers: 94.1 - Expected Pace: ~96.5 possessions (Houston controls pace at home)
Efficiency Projection
-
PHO Road Off Rating: 114.1 HOU Home Def Rating: 111.9 -
HOU Home Off Rating: 124.8 PHO Road Def Rating: 117.0
Projected Score
Using blended L6 and H/A splits with Sengun OUT adjustment:
Base Projection:
- PHO: ~110 points (road efficiency depression)
- HOU: ~116 points (home boost, but Sengun absence ~5-7 pt impact)
Sengun Adjustment: His absence typically costs Houston 5-8 points of offensive efficiency. However, Durant can elevate.
Final Projection: HOU 113, PHO 109
Betting Analysis
Spread Analysis
- Likely Line: HOU -3.5 to -4.5
- Fair Value: HOU -3.0 to -4.0
Case for Houston:
- 10-2 at home (elite)
- Kevin Durant healthy and dominant
- Won both H2H meetings this season
- Phoenix struggles defensively on road (117.0 Def Rating)
Case for Phoenix:
- Better L6 net rating (+11.3 vs +8.2)
- Sengun OUT is huge for Houston
- Booker healthy (was out in last HOU meeting)
- More rest (3 days vs 2)
- Hot offensive stretch
Verdict: Phoenix +4 or better is playable. The Sengun absence is significant - he’s their second-best player and primary offensive hub. Houston is still favored at home with Durant, but the spread should be closer to 3.
Total Analysis
- Likely Line: 224-226
- Fair Value: 222-225
Pace Context:
- PHO pushes pace (99.0), HOU slows it (94.1)
- At home, Houston typically controls tempo
- Expected pace ~96 possessions
Factors:
- Phoenix scoring 121+ PPG lately
- Sengun OUT reduces Houston’s offensive ceiling
- PHO road defense leaky (117.0 rating)
- HOU home defense solid (111.9 rating)
Verdict: Lean Under 225.5. Houston home games tend toward slower pace, and without Sengun, their half-court offense may stall. Phoenix’s road defense gives up points but Houston may not exploit without their playmaking center.
Sharp Angles
-
Sengun Absence is Underpriced - The market may not fully adjust for Sengun being OUT. He’s their offensive engine, and his absence in the Dec 5 game still saw HOU win because Booker was out. With Booker healthy, PHO becomes more dangerous.
-
Phoenix Road Splits Fade - PHO is 9-9 on road with -2.9 net rating. Elite home teams (HOU 10-2) typically expose road weaknesses.
-
Revenge Game / Third Meeting Factor - Third meetings in a season series often see adjustments. PHO now has Booker healthy for first time against HOU.
-
Rest Advantage - PHO has 3 days rest to HOU’s 2. Not massive, but matters on the margins.
Recommended Plays
| Play | Line | Rating | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHO +4.5 | -110 | B+ | Sengun OUT massively impacts HOU; Booker healthy |
| Under 225 | -110 | B | HOU controls pace at home; Sengun absence limits offense |
| PHO ML | +160 | C+ | Only if Sengun OUT confirmed and Adams also sits |
Key Number Watch
- PHO +5 or better: Strong play
- Under 223 or lower: Pass (too tight)
- HOU -2.5 or less: Consider Houston
Final Verdict
This is a Phoenix +4.5 spot in a game where the market may not fully discount Sengun’s absence. Houston’s dominance in the season series came with asterisks (Durant out in Game 1, Booker out in Game 2). With Phoenix’s Big 3 healthy for the first time against Houston, and HOU missing their second-best player, this line is too wide.
Houston is still likely to win at home with Durant, but keeping it within 4-5 points is very achievable for a Phoenix team trending upward with a +11.3 net rating over their last 6 games.
Best Bet: PHO +4.5 (-110) Lean: Under 225 (-110)