Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers
January 5, 2026 | 10:00 PM ET | Moda Center, Portland
Key Information
Critical Injuries:
- Portland OUT: Jerami Grant (Achilles), Jrue Holiday (calf), Scoot Henderson (hamstring - 2+ weeks), Damian Lillard (season), Matisse Thybulle (knee), Blake Wesley (foot)
- Portland QUESTIONABLE: Robert Williams III (knee)
- Utah OUT/QUESTIONABLE: Walker Kessler (consistent DNP), Georges Niang, Ace Bailey (missed last 2), Lauri Markkanen (missed 1/1 at LAC)
Recent Form:
- Portland 4-2 L6, won 4 of last 5 (beat BOS, DAL, NOP, SAS)
- Utah 2-4 L6, lost 4 of last 5 (only wins vs DET, @SAS)
Rest & Schedule:
- Both teams on 1 day rest (2 days since last game Jan 3)
- Portland in 3-in-4 and 4-in-6 stretch
- Critical: Utah is 0-15 on 1 day rest this season
Season Series: Portland won first meeting 136-134 at Utah (Oct 29)
Situational Analysis
The Utah Rest Factor Disaster
The most striking data point in this matchup: Utah is 0-15 when playing on 1 day of rest. Both teams last played on January 3rd, giving them identical rest. This should theoretically favor the home team slightly, but Utah’s complete inability to perform on short rest is alarming.
By contrast, Portland is 9-12 on 1 day rest - not great, but they actually win games. The Jazz score only 109.8 PPG on 1-day rest vs their 119.7 season average, while allowing 125.3 PPG.
Portland’s Injury Situation
The Trail Blazers are without several key pieces:
- Jrue Holiday (OUT) - Their veteran floor general and defensive anchor
- Jerami Grant (OUT) - Key scorer and defender
- Robert Williams III (QUESTIONABLE) - Rim protection
However, Portland has been thriving despite injuries. Deni Avdija has emerged as a borderline All-Star (7th in Western Conference voting), averaging elite production. Donovan Clingan has stepped up massively at center with 18-rebound performances.
Utah’s Struggles
The Jazz defense is historically bad - 30th in the league at 122.7 DRtg. They allow opponents to shoot well, don’t force turnovers (11.5% opponent TOV% in L6), and give up easy buckets consistently.
Without Lauri Markkanen at full health (missed Jan 1), this team relies heavily on Keyonte George (24.5 PPG, 6.9 APG) who has been inconsistent on the road.
Statistical Comparison (L6 Games)
| Metric | Utah | Portland | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 4-2 | POR |
| Pace | 100.3 | 98.2 | UTA (+2.1) |
| Off Rating | 119.4 | 115.0 | UTA (+4.4) |
| Def Rating | 124.5 | 117.8 | POR (-6.7) |
| Net Rating | -5.1 | -2.8 | POR |
| eFG% | 57.2% | 53.7% | UTA |
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 54.7% | POR |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 33.9% | POR (+10.9) |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 13.9% | Even |
| PPG | 120.0 | 112.3 | UTA |
| Opp PPG | 125.0 | 115.3 | POR |
Home/Away Splits
Utah on the Road:
- Record: 4-11
-
PPG: 111.3 Opp PPG: 123.3 -
Off Rating: 110.2 Def Rating: 121.8
Portland at Home:
- Record: 7-9
-
PPG: 116.6 Opp PPG: 119.1 -
Off Rating: 113.5 Def Rating: 116.2
Head-to-Head: October 29, 2025
Portland 136, Utah 134 (at Salt Lake City)
- High-scoring, fast-paced affair (107.7 pace)
- Portland won despite playing on the road
- Both teams shot well (POR 58.9% eFG, UTA 55.4% eFG)
- Portland’s offensive rebounding (31.8% ORB%) was decisive
- Utah committed 17.2% TOV - turnover issues evident
Key performers that game:
- Jrue Holiday (27 points for POR - now OUT)
- Both teams combined for 270 points
Projection Model
Pace Projection
- Utah L6 pace: 100.3
- Portland L6 pace: 98.2
- League average pace: ~100.0
- Projected pace: 99.0-100.0
Efficiency Projection
Adjusting for home court and recent form:
- Utah road ORtg: 110.2 (L6: 119.4, but road struggles)
- Portland home DRtg: 116.2
-
Utah adjusted ORtg: ~113.0
- Portland home ORtg: 113.5
- Utah road DRtg: 121.8
- Portland adjusted ORtg: ~117.0
Score Projection
Using blended pace of 99.5:
- Utah projected: 112.3 points
- Portland projected: 116.4 points
- Projected total: 228-229 points
- Projected spread: Portland -4
Market Assessment
Fair Lines (Model-Based)
| Market | Fair Price | Edge Threshold | |——–|————|—————-| | Spread | POR -4 | 3% edge = POR -2.5 or better | | Total | 228.5 | 3% edge = 223 or 234 | | ML | POR -175 | Value at -150 or better |
Key Factors Supporting Portland
- Utah 0-15 on 1-day rest - Historic futility
- Portland 4-2 L6 with wins over quality opponents (BOS, DAL)
- Home court advantage (typically 2-3 points)
- Superior defensive metrics in L6 (-6.7 DRtg advantage)
- Elite offensive rebounding (33.9% vs 23.0%)
- Won first meeting on the road
Key Factors Supporting Utah
- Higher pace team could push tempo
- Better L6 shooting efficiency (57.2% vs 53.7% eFG)
- Portland missing Holiday, Grant, potentially Williams
- Utah’s young core can explode offensively
Concerns
- Portland’s injury situation is significant - Holiday and Grant are major losses
- Utah can score when clicking (120 PPG in L6)
- This could be a shootout that goes over
Betting Recommendations
Primary Play: Portland -3.5 to -5
Confidence: Medium-High
The 0-15 rest angle for Utah is nearly impossible to ignore. Even with Portland’s injuries, they’ve found ways to win. Avdija and Clingan have carried the load effectively, and the home court provides stability.
Secondary Play: OVER 226.5-228
Confidence: Medium
Both teams have defensive issues. Utah allows 126.7 PPG (worst in NBA). Portland’s injuries leave them more vulnerable defensively. First meeting hit 270 combined. This has shootout potential.
Avoid
- Large spreads beyond -6 (Utah can randomly explode)
- Under bets (both defenses are porous)
Game Script Scenarios
Most Likely (55%): Portland controls tempo, leads most of the way, wins by 5-10 points. Utah makes a late run but can’t complete comeback. Final: POR 118, UTA 111.
Upset Scenario (25%): Keyonte George goes nuclear, Utah shoots lights out from three, overcomes road woes. Final: UTA 125, POR 119.
Blowout Scenario (20%): Utah’s road struggles and rest issues compound. Portland leads wire-to-wire. Final: POR 124, UTA 105.
Summary
Portland should win this game. The combination of Utah’s catastrophic 0-15 record on one day rest, Portland’s recent excellent form (4-2 L6 with quality wins), and home court advantage all point toward a Trail Blazers victory.
The injuries to Holiday and Grant are concerning, but Portland has proven they can win without them. Avdija has emerged as a legitimate star, and Clingan provides interior presence.
Lean: Portland -4, O227.5
Analysis generated January 5, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, CBS Sports, team blogs