Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers
January 6, 2026 | 7:00 PM ET | Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Key Information
Donovan Mitchell is OUT (rest) - Cleveland’s leading scorer (29.8 PPG) will not play. This fundamentally changes the matchup dynamics. The Cavaliers are also without Jarrett Allen (illness - questionable), Dean Wade (knee), Larry Nance Jr. (calf), and Max Strus (foot).
Indiana on historic 12-game losing streak - The Pacers are attempting to avoid a franchise-worst 13th consecutive loss. They haven’t had a streak this long since three separate seasons in the 1980s (1982-83, 1984-85, 1988-89).
Season series context fuels Mitchell vengeance - Cleveland won both previous meetings (120-109, 135-119) with Mitchell combining for 75 points. He’s admitted Indiana’s playoff upset last year still motivates him - but he won’t be available tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton out for season - The Pacers’ star guard underwent Achilles surgery and remains their most impactful absence. Bennedict Mathurin (thumb) is also out “a while” and Isaiah Jackson (concussion) is ruled out.
Market Analysis
| Line | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | IND +5.5 | 234.5 | CLE -222 / IND +184 |
Note: Lines may adjust significantly once Mitchell’s absence is widely known.
Situational Factors
| Factor | Cleveland | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-17 | 6-30 |
| L6 Record | 3-3 | 0-6 |
| Rest Days | 2 days | 2 days |
| Back-to-Back | No | No |
Rest Impact: Cleveland is 13-11 with 1 day rest (118.3 PPG). Indiana is 3-19 with 1 day rest (111.3 PPG). Both teams have 2 days rest tonight - Cleveland is 3-2, Indiana is 1-6 with 2+ days rest.
Team Profiles (L6 Games)
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Metric | Value | League Context |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 100.7 | Below average |
| Off Rtg | 114.0 | Solid |
| Def Rtg | 112.6 | Below average |
| Net Rtg | +1.3 | Slightly positive |
| PPG | 114.8 | |
| Opp PPG | 113.2 |
Four Factors (L6):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| eFG% | 54.8% |
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 13.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% |
| FTr | 0.187 |
| Opp FTr | 0.197 |
Trend: Offense declining (-10.8 rating from first to second half of L10), but defense improving (-12.5 points allowed per 100). Scoring down 15 PPG from first half to second half of last 10 games.
Indiana Pacers
| Metric | Value | League Context |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 103.0 | Above average |
| Off Rtg | 114.8 | Solid |
| Def Rtg | 126.3 | Atrocious |
| Net Rtg | -11.5 | Very poor |
| PPG | 117.8 | |
| Opp PPG | 129.7 | Bleeding points |
Four Factors (L6):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| eFG% | 58.0% |
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 13.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.8% |
| ORB% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% |
| FTr | 0.184 |
| Opp FTr | 0.251 |
Trend: Offense improving (+5.9 rating), but defense collapsing (+3.5 worse). Scoring up 10.4 PPG from first to second half of last 10 games, but still losing every game.
Head-to-Head (2025-26)
| Date | Location | Result | Key Performer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21 | CLE | CLE 120-109 | Mitchell 32 pts |
| Dec 1 | IND | CLE 135-119 | Mitchell 43 pts |
Cleveland has dominated, outscoring Indiana by 27 total points. However, Mitchell was responsible for 75 of those points - his absence tonight is enormous.
Home/Away Splits
| Team | Home Record | Home Off Rtg | Home Def Rtg |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 7-8 away | 117.3 | 115.9 |
| IND | 5-14 home | 111.3 | 116.4 |
Cleveland is below .500 on the road. Indiana’s home defense (116.4) is actually significantly better than their overall recent numbers (126.3 L6).
Common Opponents Analysis
| Team | Record | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland | 17-16 | 118.9 | 117.2 |
| Indiana | 5-22 | 108.3 | 118.1 |
Against 19 common opponents, Cleveland is +12 in record differential with significantly better offensive production.
Injury Impact Assessment
Cleveland Injuries
| Player | Status | Role | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | OUT (rest) | Star - 29.8 PPG | CRITICAL - Cavaliers’ entire offense flows through him |
| Jarrett Allen | QUESTIONABLE (illness) | Starting C - 10.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG | Major - Rim protection and rebounding |
| Dean Wade | OUT (knee) | Rotation F | Moderate |
| Larry Nance Jr. | OUT (calf) | Rotation F | Moderate |
| Max Strus | OUT (foot) | Rotation G | Moderate - 3PT spacing |
Without Mitchell: Cleveland loses their primary scorer, playmaker, and crunch-time player. Sam Merrill moved into starting lineup recently (15 pts vs DET with 5 3PM). Expect heavy reliance on Evan Mobley and Darius Garland.
Indiana Injuries
| Player | Status | Role | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton | OUT (Achilles - season) | Star PG | Season-defining absence |
| Bennedict Mathurin | OUT (thumb) | Key scorer | Major - averaging double figures |
| Obi Toppin | OUT (foot surgery) | Rotation PF | Moderate |
| Isaiah Jackson | OUT (concussion) | Rotation C | Moderate |
Pacers rotation: Pascal Siakam (23.8 PPG this stretch) carries the offensive load with Andrew Nembhard running point. Both have been solid but can’t compensate for the defensive attrition.
Recent Game Context
Cleveland’s Last Game (Jan 4)
L 110-114 vs Detroit (at home)
- Mitchell: 30 pts (23 in 2nd half)
- Garland: 16 pts, 6 ast
- Lost despite Pistons missing Duren and Harris
- Daniss Jenkins (G-League call-up) torched them for 25 pts
- Allen scratched with illness
“We should have won this game and we didn’t. And that’s on us.” - Donovan Mitchell
Indiana’s Last Game (Jan 4)
L 127-135 @ Orlando
- Siakam: 34 pts, 10 reb
- Nembhard: 20 pts, 11 ast
- Led by 12 in Q1, gave up 17-0 run in Q2
- 12th straight loss, matching franchise worst
“There are positives. We’re making progress.” - Rick Carlisle
Projected Pace & Totals
| Metric | Cleveland | Indiana | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season Pace | ~101 | ~103 | ~102 possessions |
| L6 PPG | 114.8 | 117.8 | |
| L6 Opp PPG | 113.2 | 129.7 |
Total projection: With Mitchell out, Cleveland’s offense drops significantly. However, Indiana’s defense has been giving up nearly 130 PPG over the last 6 games. The 234.5 total feels about right given the crosscurrents - Cleveland’s offensive decline without Mitchell vs Indiana’s defensive incompetence.
Betting Analysis
Spread: IND +5.5
Case for Cleveland covering:
- 2-0 in season series, dominant margins
- Indiana on 12-game losing streak, broken mentally
- Better coaching, more depth even without Mitchell
- Common opponent record strongly favors Cleveland
Case for Indiana covering:
- Mitchell OUT - this changes everything
- Allen questionable - could be without both key players
- Home court for desperate team avoiding franchise-worst streak
- Siakam/Nembhard have been solid
- Cleveland just lost at home to Detroit’s bench players
Assessment: The Mitchell absence is the variable that the market may not have fully priced in yet. At -5.5, Cleveland was likely a 7-8 point favorite with Mitchell. Without him, this line is close to fair. Lean: IND +5.5
Total: 234.5
Over factors:
- Indiana allowing 129.7 PPG over L6
- Both teams scoring well recently
- Pace should be moderate-to-high (102+)
Under factors:
- Mitchell’s 30 PPG disappears from Cleveland’s offense
- Cleveland’s defense has improved recently (110.2 in last 5)
- Garland/Mobley are lower-usage players
Assessment: The total was set with Mitchell playing. His absence removes 25-30 points of offense. Indiana’s defensive issues don’t automatically generate points for a Cleveland team that may struggle offensively. Lean: UNDER 234.5
Fair Lines & Edges
| Market | Current | Fair Value | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | IND +5.5 | IND +3.5 | IND +5.5 has value |
| Total | 234.5 | 226-228 | UNDER has value |
| ML | CLE -222 | CLE -160 | IND +184 has value |
Key assumption: Mitchell’s absence is worth 6-8 points to the spread and 8-12 points to the total. If Allen also sits, add another 2-3 points.
Recommended Plays
Primary
IND +5.5 (-110) | Confidence: Medium
- Mitchell’s absence fundamentally changes this matchup
- Indiana desperate to avoid franchise-worst streak
- Cleveland’s road record is mediocre (7-8)
- Line should be closer to 3
Secondary
UNDER 234.5 (-110) | Confidence: Medium
- Mitchell’s scoring disappears
- Cleveland’s recent defense has tightened
- Total was set with full-strength Cleveland in mind
Speculative
IND ML +184 | Confidence: Low
- High variance play but positive expected value
- If Allen joins Mitchell on the sideline, this becomes live
Market Timing Notes
- Monitor: Jarrett Allen’s status will be announced closer to game time
- Line movement expected: Once Mitchell’s rest is widely disseminated, expect line to move toward Indiana
- Best entry: IND +5.5 before line moves; UNDER before it drops
Final Projection
Cleveland 112, Indiana 108 (without Mitchell)
- Cavaliers grind out a win but fail to cover inflated spread
- Pacers’ streak reaches 13 but they compete better than recent games
- Game stays under adjusted total
This analysis assumes Mitchell OUT. If he plays, void all recommendations and reassess.