Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings
January 6, 2026 | 11:00 PM ET | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
Key Information
Injuries & Availability:
- DAL OUT: Kyrie Irving (knee, indefinite), Dereck Lively II (foot surgery), Dante Exum (season-ending knee surgery)
- DAL DOUBTFUL: P.J. Washington (ankle)
- SAC OUT: Domantas Sabonis (knee, 4-5 more weeks), Keegan Murray (ankle - ruled out for this game)
- Both teams operating without their primary playmakers and key contributors
Critical Context:
- Rematch from December 27 - Sacramento won 113-107 at home
- In that game: Both teams were missing key players (Kyrie Irving, Sabonis out)
- Sacramento’s Russell Westbrook (21pts/9ast) and rookie Maxime Raynaud (19pts) led the win
- Cooper Flagg had 23pts/6reb/5ast for Dallas but committed 5 turnovers
- Sacramento built early lead (31-23 Q1) and held on despite Dallas 33-29 Q3 surge
Form & Trajectory:
- Dallas (13-23, 2-4 L6): Scored 110 in last game W vs HOU. Offense declining (-8.8 PPG over 10 games). Defense improving slightly.
- Sacramento (8-28, 1-5 L6): In complete freefall - 5 straight losses. Offense collapsed (-18.8 PPG over 10 games). Net rating of -20 in L6.
- SAC has allowed 115+ in 5 of last 6 games
Schedule:
- Dallas: 2 days rest (last played 1/3). Light schedule - 2 games in last 7 days
- Sacramento: 1 day rest (last played 1/4). Slightly heavier - 3 games in last 7 days
Matchup Analysis
Team Profiles
| Metric | DAL | SAC | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season Record | 13-23 | 8-28 | DAL |
| L6 Record | 2-4 | 1-5 | DAL |
| L6 Net Rating | -4.3 | -20.0 | DAL +15.7 |
| L6 Pace | 102.3 | 98.7 | DAL faster |
| L6 Off Rating | 113.3 | 103.0 | DAL +10.3 |
| L6 Def Rating | 117.6 | 123.0 | DAL +5.4 |
Four Factors (L6)
| Factor | DAL Off | SAC Def | DAL Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 56.4% | 57.6% (allows) | Push |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 11.7% (forces) | SAC |
| ORB% | 17.0% | 77.1% DRB% | SAC |
| FT Rate | 0.174 | 0.228 (allows) | DAL |
| Factor | SAC Off | DAL Def | SAC Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 49.6% | 55.3% (allows) | DAL |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 10.7% (forces) | Push |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 74.9% DRB% | SAC |
| FT Rate | 0.185 | 0.143 (allows) | SAC |
Home/Away Splits
| Team | Venue | Record | PPG | Opp PPG | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Home | 10-10 | 114.0 | 115.6 | -1.6 |
| DAL | Away | 3-13 | 112.8 | 119.8 | -7.0 |
| SAC | Home | 5-12 | 109.6 | 120.8 | -11.2 |
| SAC | Away | 3-16 | 110.9 | 123.6 | -12.7 |
Key insight: Dallas has been terrible on the road (3-13). Sacramento is terrible at home (5-12) but slightly better than away.
Rest Performance
| Team | Rest Days | Record | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2+ days | 2-4 | 117.5 | 123.2 |
| SAC | 1 day | 4-17 | 109.9 | 120.7 |
Head-to-Head (2025-26)
| Date | Venue | Result | Key Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27 | SAC | SAC 113-107 | Westbrook 21/9ast, Raynaud 19, Flagg 23/5TO |
Takeaway: Sacramento won despite missing Sabonis. They controlled pace (103) and had better turnover margin (9.3% vs 18.0%). Dallas committed 18 turnovers.
Common Opponents Analysis
| Team | Record | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 9-16 | 113.6 | 118.5 |
| SAC | 7-25 | 110.6 | 122.3 |
Dallas has performed better against shared opponents (-4.9 vs -11.7 net).
Roster Situation
Dallas Mavericks
Available Key Players:
- Cooper Flagg (rookie star) - 23 PPG in H2H
- Klay Thompson - veteran shooter
- D’Angelo Russell - secondary playmaker
- Daniel Gafford - rim protection
- Anthony Davis - scoring/rebounding anchor
- Naji Marshall, Max Christie - role players
P.J. Washington Doubtful - big loss if out (17pts in H2H)
Sacramento Kings
Available Key Players:
- DeMar DeRozan - primary scorer (25 PPG season avg)
- Russell Westbrook - playmaking (21pts/9ast in H2H)
- Zach LaVine - scoring (when healthy)
- Dennis Schroder - backup PG
- Maxime Raynaud - emerging rookie center
- Malik Monk - bench scoring
- Keon Ellis - 3&D wing (21pts in H2H)
Key Out: Sabonis (team’s best player) and Murray (starting forward) both out significantly hampers offense.
Statistical Projections
Pace Projection
- Dallas L6 Pace: 102.3
- Sacramento L6 Pace: 98.7
- League Average: ~100
- Projected Pace: ~100-101 (moderate tempo)
Scoring Projection
Dallas Projected:
- Base: L6 avg 115.7 PPG
- Road adjustment: -2 (poor road record)
- vs SAC defense (123 DRtg L6): +3-5
- Range: 114-120 points
Sacramento Projected:
- Base: L6 avg 101.7 PPG
- Home adjustment: +2
- vs DAL defense (117.6 DRtg L6): +2
- Missing Sabonis/Murray: -5
- Range: 100-108 points
Projected Total: 218-224 points
Point Spread Analysis
Efficiency Differential:
- Dallas Net Rating L6: -4.3
- Sacramento Net Rating L6: -20.0
- Raw differential: +15.7 Dallas
Adjustments:
- Home court advantage: +3 SAC
- Travel/fatigue: +1 SAC (cross-country trip for DAL)
- Injuries even out (both missing stars)
Fair Line: Dallas -5 to -6
Betting Analysis
Spread
Fair Value: Dallas -5.5
Market is likely to see:
- Dallas as road favorites around -4.5 to -6
- If PJ Washington plays: lean -6
- If PJ Washington out: lean -4.5
Assessment:
- Dallas significantly better team on efficiency metrics
- Sacramento in complete freefall (1-5 L6, -20 net rating)
- However, Dallas 3-13 on road is concerning
- December H2H was close (6-point SAC win)
Edge: If line is DAL -4 or less, there’s value on Dallas. At -6 or higher, it becomes a stay-away.
Total
Fair Value: 219-222
Factors:
- Dallas declining offense but should feast on SAC’s terrible D
- Sacramento’s offense has collapsed without Sabonis
- Both defenses have been poor
- Pace will be moderate
Assessment:
- Under looks attractive if total is 224+
- Sacramento has been held under 106 in 4 of last 5
- Dallas road games averaging 232.6 combined (not great for unders)
Edge: Lean Under if total is 223+, Over if 218 or less.
Player Props to Watch
- Cooper Flagg Points - Expect 22-28 range; he’s the focal point
- DeMar DeRozan Points - More usage with Murray/Sabonis out; 28+ possible
- Russell Westbrook Double-Double - Had 21/9 in H2H; triple-double threat
- Maxime Raynaud - Emerging with Sabonis out; 15+ points likely
Summary & Recommendation
Game Thesis: Dallas is the better team by every efficiency metric, but their road struggles (3-13) create legitimate concern. Sacramento is in complete collapse mode without Sabonis and Murray, having lost 5 straight with awful defensive numbers. The December meeting was closer than expected largely due to Dallas turnovers (18) and Sacramento getting hot shooting from role players.
Key Factors:
- Sacramento’s defense has been atrocious (-20 net rating L6)
- Dallas road woes are real but may be exaggerated by schedule
- Both teams missing key players evens injury impact
- Sacramento’s home crowd won’t help much - team is demoralized
Recommended Plays:
| Market | Line | Recommendation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DAL -4.5 or less | DAL -4.5 | Medium |
| Spread | DAL -6 or more | Pass | - |
| Total | 223+ | Under | Medium |
| Total | 218 or less | Over | Low |
Best Bet: Dallas -4.5 (if available)
Sacramento’s freefall is real and Dallas should capitalize despite road struggles. Expect a 6-10 point Dallas win in a moderate-tempo game.
Predicted Score: Dallas 116, Sacramento 108
Report generated: January 6, 2026 Data sources: MCP basketball statistics, ESPN injuries, team schedules