LAL @ NOP - January 6, 2026
Game Information
- Matchup: Los Angeles Lakers (22-11) @ New Orleans Pelicans (8-29)
- Date/Time: Tuesday, January 6, 2026 - 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
- Broadcast: NBC Peacock
Key Information
Why Lakers Should Cover:
- Lakers are 2-0 vs Pelicans this season (W 118-104 at NOP, W 133-121 at LAL) - averaging 125.5 PPG
- Pelicans on brutal 6-game losing streak with defensive rating of 123.6 in that span
- Dejounte Murray still OUT (Achilles) - massive void in backcourt creation and defense
- Austin Reaves OUT for Lakers, but Doncic/LeBron duo still elite; NOP has no answer for them
- Lakers are 11-4 on one day’s rest; Pelicans are 4-19 in same situation - huge ATS split historically
Why Pelicans Could Cover:
- Zion Williamson averaging 22.8 PPG and could exploit Lakers’ poor interior defense (121 def rating L6)
- Lakers have blown leads recently - lost to DET and PHO at home in past two weeks
- Pelicans desperately need a win at home to avoid complete collapse
- Rookie Derik Queen has been a revelation (10+ RPG in multiple games)
Sharp Money Indicators:
- Line opened LAL -5, has moved to LAL -4.5 - mild reverse line movement suggests some NOP money
- Total opened 238, moved to 240.5 - sharp money on OVER given both teams’ poor defense
Current Betting Lines (ESPN)
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | LAL -4.5 |
| Total | 240.5 |
Injury Report
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | Status | Injury | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | OUT | Left calf strain (Grade 2) | Re-eval in ~4 weeks. HUGE loss - second leading scorer, primary ball handler |
| Rui Hachimura | OUT | Calf | Out for two-game road trip |
| Adou Thiero | OUT | Right MCL sprain | At least 4 weeks |
| Gabe Vincent | Questionable | Back | May be available, limited role if active |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | Status | Injury | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | OUT | Achilles | Could return after New Year’s (per Shams) - still out |
| Saddiq Bey | OUT | Hip | DNP most recent games |
| Herbert Jones | Questionable | Right ankle sprain | Key defender, uncertain availability |
Season Series (LAL leads 2-0)
| Date | Location | Score | Top Performer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14 | @ NOP | LAL 118-104 | Reaves 31 pts |
| Nov 30 | vs NOP | LAL 133-121 | Doncic 34/12/8 |
Key Insight: Lakers have averaged 125.5 PPG against Pelicans this season. Both games went OVER.
Team Profiles
Los Angeles Lakers (22-11)
L6 Performance: 3-3
| Metric | Value | League Context |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 98.8 | Below average |
| Off Rtg | 115.0 | Above average |
| Def Rtg | 121.0 | Poor |
| Net Rtg | -6.0 | Negative |
| PPG | 113.8 | - |
| Opp PPG | 119.2 | - |
Four Factors (L6):
- eFG%: 57.7% (excellent)
- TOV%: 15.4% (below average)
- ORB%: 23.4% (average)
- FT Rate: 0.252 (good)
Last 6 Games:
| Date | Opp | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4 | MEM | W | 120-114 |
| Jan 2 | MEM | W | 128-121 |
| Dec 30 | DET | L | 106-128 |
| Dec 28 | SAC | W | 125-101 |
| Dec 25 | HOU | L | 96-119 |
| Dec 23 | @PHO | L | 108-132 |
Splits:
- Away: 12-5 (116.2 Off Rtg, 117.6 Def Rtg)
- Home: 10-6 (120.7 Off Rtg, 119.4 Def Rtg)
- 1 Day Rest: 11-4 (115.3 PPG)
Trend Analysis:
- Offense: Stable (115.8 -> 115.1 Off Rtg)
- Defense: IMPROVING (124.8 -> 117.2 Def Rtg) - significant 7.6 point improvement in second half
New Orleans Pelicans (8-29)
L6 Performance: 0-6
| Metric | Value | League Context |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 101.3 | Above average |
| Off Rtg | 112.3 | Average |
| Def Rtg | 123.6 | Very poor |
| Net Rtg | -11.2 | Terrible |
| PPG | 113.3 | - |
| Opp PPG | 124.8 | - |
Four Factors (L6):
- eFG%: 50.5% (below average)
- TOV%: 12.3% (good)
- ORB%: 28.0% (excellent)
- FT Rate: 0.214 (below average)
Last 6 Games:
| Date | Opp | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4 | @MIA | L | 106-125 |
| Jan 2 | POR | L | 109-122 |
| Dec 31 | @CHI | L | 118-134 |
| Dec 29 | NYK | L | 125-130 |
| Dec 27 | PHO | L | 114-123 |
| Dec 26 | PHO | L | 108-115 |
Splits:
- Home: 6-16 (115.8 Off Rtg, 120.9 Def Rtg)
- Away: 2-13 (109.4 Off Rtg, 122.0 Def Rtg)
- 1 Day Rest: 4-19 (116.3 PPG, 124.9 Opp PPG)
Trend Analysis:
- Offense: Stable (114.0 -> 113.5 Off Rtg)
- Defense: DECLINING (114.2 -> 125.7 Def Rtg) - dramatic 11.5 point collapse
Scoring Trend: DECLINING (-6.8 PPG from first half to second half of L10)
Head-to-Head Analysis
Common Opponents Performance
| Team | Record vs Common Opps | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 12-10 | 114.4 | 118.5 |
| NOP | 5-21 | 114.7 | 122.7 |
Common Opponents: ATL, BOS, CHO, DAL, GSW, HOU, LAC, MEM, MIA, MIN, OKC, PHO, POR, SAS
Key Insight: Against the same opponents, Lakers are +7 wins better with 4.2 fewer points allowed per game.
Statistical Comparison (L6)
| Metric | LAL | NOP | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off Rtg | 115.0 | 112.3 | LAL +2.7 |
| Def Rtg | 121.0 | 123.6 | LAL +2.6 |
| Pace | 98.8 | 101.3 | NOP +2.5 |
| Net Rtg | -6.0 | -11.2 | LAL +5.2 |
| eFG% | 57.7% | 50.5% | LAL +7.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 12.3% | NOP +3.1% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 28.0% | NOP +4.6% |
Projected Score & Fair Lines
Pace-Adjusted Projection
- Expected Pace: ~100 possessions (average of both teams)
- LAL Offensive Output: (115.0 + 123.6) / 2 = 119.3 pts per 100
- NOP Offensive Output: (112.3 + 121.0) / 2 = 116.7 pts per 100
Projected Score: LAL 119 - NOP 117
Fair Value Assessment
| Market | Fair Line | Current Line | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LAL -2.5 | LAL -4.5 | NOP +2 pts value |
| Total | 236 | 240.5 | UNDER 4.5 pts value |
Best Bets
Primary Play: UNDER 240.5 (-110)
Rating: 4 Units
Rationale:
- Projected total of 236 gives 4.5 points of value
- Lakers have shown improved defense (7.6 point improvement in def rating L5 vs first 5)
- Lakers play slowest pace in league (98.8 L6) - will control tempo
- Both teams are on 1 day’s rest - no extra fatigue to boost scoring
- Season series inflated by two games when NOP had more offensive firepower
Risk Factor: Both defenses are poor, and first two meetings averaged 238 total.
Secondary Play: NOP +4.5 (-110)
Rating: 2 Units
Rationale:
- Fair spread of LAL -2.5 makes +4.5 a 2-point overlay
- Pelicans are desperate at home after 6-game losing streak
- Reverse line movement suggests some sharp action on NOP
- Lakers without Reaves (primary perimeter creator) - offense less dynamic
- Zion averaging 22.8 PPG could have big game vs Lakers’ poor interior defense
- Pelicans’ best player (Zion) healthy; Lakers missing their #2 scorer
Risk Factor: Lakers have dominated this matchup 2-0, and Pelicans’ defense has completely collapsed (125.7 def rtg in last 5 games).
Avoid: LAL ML (-180)
Lakers should win, but -180 juice doesn’t offer value given the fair line of -2.5 implies ~60% win probability. Actual odds reflect 64% implied probability - no edge.
Player Props to Watch
Luka Doncic OVER 33.5 Points - With Reaves out, Doncic will have higher usage. Averaging 33.7 PPG and scored 34+ in both Pelicans games this season.
Zion Williamson OVER 22.5 Points - Averaging 22.8 and has scored 24+ in 5 of last 10 games. Lakers allow 121.0 def rating - should feast inside.
Trey Murphy III OVER 19.5 Points - Primary wing scorer for NOP now. Has stepped up with 20+ in 4 of last 8.
Game Script Projection
- Lakers start fast with Doncic/LeBron pick-and-roll dominating NOP’s porous defense
- Zion attacks the paint and keeps Pelicans within striking distance through halftime
- Second half grind as Lakers slow pace and execute in half-court
- Pelicans make late push but lack closing lineup without Murray
- Final margin: Lakers by 3-5 points
Summary
This is a classic “talented road favorite vs desperate home underdog” spot. The Lakers are clearly the better team but are dealing with significant injuries (Reaves, Hachimura) that could limit their offensive ceiling. The Pelicans are in freefall defensively but have Zion healthy and are at home.
The market has correctly identified the Lakers as favorites, but the 4.5-point spread may be slightly inflated given the injuries and the Pelicans’ home desperation factor. The total of 240.5 appears too high given the Lakers’ slow pace and improving defense.
Final Recommendation:
- UNDER 240.5 (4u) - Best bet of the game
- NOP +4.5 (2u) - Value play on inflated spread
Report generated: January 6, 2026 Data source: Basketball-Reference via MCP, ESPN