Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves
January 6, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET | Target Center | NBC/Peacock
Key Information
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Rematch from 3 days ago: Minnesota won 125-115 in Miami on January 3rd. Naz Reid exploded for 29 points (10-15 FG, 4-7 3PT) off the bench while Anthony Edwards had 33 points. Miami shot poorly from three (11-34, 32.4%) and turned it over 14 times.
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Miami missing key players: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (ankle - OUT), Tyler Herro (toe - Questionable), and Terry Rozier (league leave - OUT) all sidelined. Herro provides secondary shot creation that Miami desperately needed in the first meeting; his absence forces heavier reliance on Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo.
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Schedule fatigue for Miami: Playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in 6 nights, traveling to Minnesota after hosting New Orleans yesterday. The Heat are 5-2 on 0 days rest but 7-10 on the road overall.
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Edwards heating up: Ant has scored 30+ in 5 of his last 7 games including 35 vs Washington on Jan 4. He’s averaging 29.4 PPG on 50.6% shooting this season.
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Minnesota’s defensive regression: The Wolves have allowed 116.9 DRtg over their last 6 games compared to 113.3 for the season. They gave up 123 to Brooklyn and 126 to Atlanta in recent losses.
Team Profiles
Miami Heat (20-16)
| Metric | Season | L6 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-16 | 5-1 | Hot |
| Off Rtg | 115.6 | 122.0 | +11.9 (improving) |
| Def Rtg | 112.2 | 109.6 | -3.6 (improving) |
| Net Rtg | +3.4 | +12.4 | +15.5 |
| Pace | 104.3 | 105.8 | Fastest in NBA |
| PPG | 120.8 | 128.8 | +16.6 (L5 vs L5 prior) |
Key Players:
- Norman Powell: 24.4 PPG, .582 eFG% - carrying the scoring load
- Bam Adebayo: 17.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG - anchor but shot poorly (5-13) in first meeting
- Andrew Wiggins: 16.1 PPG, quietly consistent
- Kel’el Ware: 12.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG - rookie rim presence
Injuries:
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF) - OUT (ankle)
- Tyler Herro (SG) - QUESTIONABLE (toe contusion)
- Terry Rozier (PG) - OUT (league leave)
- Keshad Johnson (SF) - Probable (back)
- Nikola Jovic (PF) - Probable (groin)
Minnesota Timberwolves (23-13)
| Metric | Season | L6 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-13 | 3-3 | Uneven |
| Off Rtg | 118.2 | 121.0 | +11.6 (improving) |
| Def Rtg | 113.3 | 116.9 | +7.9 (declining) |
| Net Rtg | +4.9 | +4.1 | -0.8 |
| Pace | 100.2 | 101.2 | League average |
| PPG | 119.6 | 124.8 | +6.6 |
Key Players:
- Anthony Edwards: 29.4 PPG, .590 eFG% - MVP-level play
- Julius Randle: 22.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 5.7 APG - playmaking hub
- Rudy Gobert: 11.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG - rim protection
- Naz Reid: 14.3 PPG off bench - was electric in first meeting (29 pts)
- Jaden McDaniels: 14.4 PPG - perimeter defense
Injuries:
- Terrence Shannon Jr. (SG) - OUT (foot strain, 2 weeks)
- Rocco Zikarsky (C) - G-League assignment
Situational Factors
Rest & Schedule
| Team | Rest Days | B2B | Schedule Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | No | 3-in-4, 4-in-6 nights |
| MIN | 1 | No | 3-in-4 nights |
Miami Schedule Density: The Heat have played 4 games in 6 days (vs IND 12/27, vs DEN 12/29, @ DET 1/1, vs MIN 1/3, vs NOP 1/4, @ MIN 1/6). This is significant fatigue compounded by cross-country travel to Minneapolis.
Home/Away Splits
| Team | Record | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA Away | 7-10 | 114.7 | 113.2 | +1.5 |
| MIN Home | 12-6 | 116.1 | 111.0 | +5.1 |
Minnesota is significantly better at home (+5.1 Net) while Miami struggles on the road (7-10).
Performance by Rest
| Team | 1 Day Rest Record | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 11-9 | 122.5 | 117.3 |
| MIN | 14-9 | 118.9 | 114.1 |
Both teams functional on 1 day rest, but Minnesota has the better record.
Head-to-Head
Season Series: MIN leads 1-0
January 3, 2026 @ Miami - MIN 125, MIA 115
- Naz Reid dominated: 29 pts (10-15 FG, 4-7 3PT, 5-5 FT) in 25 minutes
- Anthony Edwards: 33 pts, 5 ast on 10-19 shooting
- Norman Powell: 21 pts for Miami, but shot 6-13
- Miami turnovers (14) and poor 3PT shooting (32.4%) were decisive
- MIN shot 60.6% eFG vs MIA’s 55.2%
- Four Factors: MIN dominated pace control at 99.5
Four Factors Comparison (L6)
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | .559 | .570 | MIN +1.1% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 10.6% | MIN (fewer TOs) |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 26.6% | MIA +3.1% |
| FT Rate | .179 | .216 | MIN +.037 |
Minnesota has been more efficient from the field and better at protecting the ball. Miami’s only advantage is offensive rebounding.
Betting Analysis
Line Movement Expectation
Based on the data, I expect the line to open around:
- Spread: MIN -5.5 to -6.5
- Total: 229.5-231.5
Fair Lines (Model-Based)
Spread Analysis:
- MIN home court: +3.5 points
- Season net rating diff: MIN +1.5 points
- L6 performance: MIA playing better (+12.4 vs +4.1) but…
- Miami road struggles: -2 points
- Schedule fatigue (MIA 4-in-6): -1.5 points
- Injuries (Jaquez OUT, Herro ?): -1 to -2 points
- Recent H2H dominance: -0.5 points
Fair Spread: MIN -5.5
Total Analysis:
- Combined L6 pace: 103.5 (moderate)
- Combined L6 ORtg: 243.0
- Combined L6 DRtg: 226.5
- First meeting: 240 total at 99.5 pace
- Miami’s uptempo style (104.3 pace) vs MIN’s control (100.2)
Fair Total: 230.0
Market Edges
| Bet | Fair Line | If Market Shows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN -5.5 | -5.5 | -4.5 or less | BET MIN |
| MIN -5.5 | -5.5 | -7 or more | BET MIA +7 |
| Over 230 | 230 | 227 or less | BET OVER |
| Under 230 | 230 | 233 or more | BET UNDER |
Best Bet: MIN -5.5 to -6
Rationale:
- Minnesota just beat Miami by 10 in Miami 3 days ago
- Miami on brutal schedule (4-in-6) and traveling to Target Center
- Jaquez OUT, Herro questionable - Miami lacks depth
- Edwards is scorching hot (35 pts last game)
- Naz Reid owned this matchup in first meeting (29 pts off bench)
- Minnesota 12-6 at home vs Miami 7-10 on road
Lean: UNDER 230
Rationale:
- First meeting had 240 points but at slow 99.5 pace
- Minnesota plays slower at home (controls pace with Gobert)
- Miami fatigue could slow offensive execution
- Minnesota’s interior D with Gobert will force perimeter shots
Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Lean | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | PTS O/U ~14.5 | OVER | Destroyed Miami (29 pts) in first meeting, favorable matchup |
| Anthony Edwards | PTS O/U ~28.5 | OVER | Averaging 29.4, scored 33 and 35 in last 2 games |
| Norman Powell | PTS O/U ~23.5 | UNDER | Shot poorly vs MIN (6-13), harder without Herro spacing |
| Rudy Gobert | REB O/U ~10.5 | OVER | Grabbed 12 rebounds vs MIA, Miami lacks interior size |
Projection
| Team | Projected Score |
|---|---|
| MIA | 112 |
| MIN | 119 |
| Total | 231 |
| Spread | MIN -7 |
Summary
Minnesota holds significant advantages in this rematch: home court, fresher legs, recent head-to-head dominance, and a healthier roster. The Wolves just beat Miami by 10 on Miami’s home floor three days ago, and now get them again in Target Center with the Heat on a brutal schedule.
Miami’s recent L6 surge (5-1, +12.4 net rating) is impressive but came mostly at home and doesn’t account for tonight’s absence of Jaquez and potential absence of Herro. The Heat’s road woes (7-10) and schedule fatigue (4th game in 6 nights) are real concerns.
Best Bets:
- MIN -5.5 to -6 (primary play)
- Naz Reid Over Points (game-specific)
- Under 230 (lean)
Note: Line and prop values are projections. Check actual market prices before placing bets.
Report generated: January 6, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, MCP Stats Server