ORL @ WAS | January 6, 2026
Report Generated: 2026-01-06 Data Sources: MCP bball-stats, Web pre-verified data
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
| Lean: ORL -6.5 | OVER 231.5 |
| Confidence: Medium | Edge: 3-4% |
- Efficiency differential misleading: ORL actually has WORSE L6 net rating (-2.2) than WAS (+0.8), but season records and head-to-head tell different story
- Franz Wagner OUT: Magic’s 25.8 PPG scorer sidelined - ALREADY reflected in recent games (3-3 L6)
- Washington’s home defense is catastrophic: 122.5 DRtg at home, allowing 126.2 PPG - worst splits in matchup
- Season series dominance: ORL destroyed WAS 125-94 on Nov 1 (31-point blowout)
- WAS 1-day rest performance: 6-14 record, 126.6 Opp PPG allowed - massive sample of poor performance
SCHEDULE & REST
| Team | Last Game | Rest | B2B? | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | Jan 4 vs IND (W 135-127) | 1 day | No | None |
| WAS | Jan 4 vs MIN (L 115-141) | 1 day | No | None |
Rest Edge: Neutral (both on 1 day rest) Travel Note: ORL traveling to DC, WAS at home
L6 EFFICIENCY COMPARISON
| Metric | ORL | WAS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| L6 Record | 3-3 | 4-2 | WAS |
| Pace | 99.0 | 102.3 | WAS +3.3 |
| Off Rating | 117.8 | 114.6 | ORL +3.2 |
| Def Rating | 120.0 | 113.9 | WAS +6.1 |
| Net Rating | -2.2 | +0.8 | WAS +3.0 |
| eFG% (Off) | .535 | .558 | WAS +2.3% |
| TOV% | 8.9 | 14.0 | ORL +5.1% |
| ORB% | 20.2 | 25.9 | WAS +5.7% |
| FT Rate | .246 | .183 | ORL +.063 |
Key Efficiency Note: L6 numbers favor Washington on net rating, but this is heavily influenced by WAS beating weak competition and ORL’s struggles without Franz Wagner. The SEASON numbers (20-16 vs 9-25) and head-to-head (ORL 125-94) paint a very different picture.
INJURY REPORT
ORL — Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | OUT | HIGH - 25.8 PPG scorer | Already priced (out 3+ games) |
| Moritz Wagner | OUT | Medium - rotation big | Already priced |
| Jalen Suggs | Missed 1/4 | Monitor | Day-to-day watch |
| Jonathan Isaac | Missed 12/31 | Low | Load management |
WAS — Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Whitmore | OUT | Medium - young rotation player |
| Kyshawn George | OUT | Low |
| Corey Kispert | OUT 2 of 3 | Medium - 3PT shooter |
Long-Term Absences (Already Priced In): Franz Wagner (ORL), Mo Wagner (ORL) Net NEW Injury Edge: NEUTRAL - both teams dealing with known absences
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Season Series: ORL 1-0
| Date | Location | Score | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | @WAS | ORL 125-94 | 31-point blowout |
H2H Context: Orlando dominated in their first meeting. Banchero (28 pts), Franz Wagner (25 pts), WCJ (16 pts, 12 reb). Washington shot just 44.4% eFG. Game played at 108 pace.
MATCHUP GEOMETRY
-
WAS Home Defense is Liability: 122.5 DRtg at home, allowing 126.2 PPG. This isn’t just bad - it’s among the worst home defensive splits in the league. ORL should score efficiently despite Franz Wagner absence.
-
Turnover Differential: ORL’s 8.9 TOV% vs WAS’s 14.0 TOV% is a massive advantage. Washington’s carelessness leads to transition opportunities even for a slower-paced team like ORL.
-
ORL Without Wagner Still Productive: Despite missing their leading scorer, ORL put up 135 points vs IND on Jan 4. Banchero has elevated, and the supporting cast is contributing.
-
WAS Blowout Hangover: Getting destroyed 115-141 by Minnesota on Saturday typically leads to flat performance. Plus, WAS’s 5-5 L10 is misleading - wins came against bottom-tier opponents.
-
Pace Mismatch: WAS plays faster (102.3) but ORL’s lower pace (99.0) historically controls games. First meeting was played at ORL’s preferred 108 pace.
PRICING & EDGE
Side
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Line | ORL -6.5 |
| Fair Price | ORL -7 to -8 |
| Edge | 1-3% |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Stake | 1.5u |
Fair Price Calculation:
- Season record differential: ORL 20-16 (.555) vs WAS 9-25 (.265) → significant class gap
- H2H: 31-point blowout suggests true talent gap larger than current spread
- Home court for WAS: +3.0 adjustment
- BUT WAS home splits are negative (5-12, -9.9 point differential)
- Franz Wagner out: Already reflected in recent results
- Net adjustment: ORL should be favored by 7-8 on neutral, WAS home doesn’t help much given their 5-12 home record
Total
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Line | O/U 231.5 |
| Projected | 234-238 |
| Fair Price | O/U 235 |
| Edge | 2-3% |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Stake | 1.0u |
Total Calculation:
- Combined L6 PPG: 116.5 + 117.2 = 233.7
- WAS home allows 126.2 PPG
- ORL away scores 116.9 PPG
- WAS home scores 116.1 PPG
- Projected range: 234-240
- First meeting total: 219 (ORL blowout, garbage time effects)
MARKET PLAN
| Primary Play: ORL -6.5 (-110) | 1.5u |
| Secondary Play: OVER 231.5 (-110) | 1.0u |
Timing Guidance:
- Line may move toward ORL if Franz Wagner absence is already fully priced
- Monitor Suggs status - if he’s confirmed OUT, line should move further toward ORL
Contingencies:
- If line moves to ORL -8 or higher: Pass on side, still play Over
- If Suggs confirmed OUT: Consider ORL -7 still playable
- If key WAS player returns: Reassess
KEY FACTORS SUMMARY
| Factor | Favors | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Season Record (20-16 vs 9-25) | ORL | High |
| H2H (125-94 blowout) | ORL | High |
| L6 Net Rating | WAS | Low* |
| WAS Home Defense (122.5 DRtg) | ORL | High |
| WAS 1-day rest record (6-14) | ORL | Medium |
| Franz Wagner OUT | WAS | Medium |
| Turnover differential | ORL | Medium |
*L6 net rating is misleading due to strength of schedule and small sample variance
BOTTOM LINE: Washington’s L6 improvement is a mirage against weak competition. Their catastrophic home defense (126.2 PPG allowed, 5-12 record) and the 31-point beatdown in November reveal the true class gap. Orlando has proven they can win without Franz Wagner. Lay the points with ORL -6.5 and take the Over 231.5 given Washington’s porous home defense.