San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies
January 6, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET | FedExForum
Key Information
Critical Injury Context
SAN ANTONIO SPURS:
- Victor Wembanyama (F) - QUESTIONABLE (knee) - Franchise centerpiece, if out fundamentally changes game
- Devin Vassell (G) - OUT (left adductor strain) - Key secondary scorer/defender
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES:
- Ja Morant (G) - QUESTIONABLE (calf) - All-NBA point guard, game-altering absence if out
- Zach Edey (C) - OUT (ankle, 4 weeks) - Interior presence and rebounding anchor
- Brandon Clarke (F) - OUT (Grade 2 calf strain)
- Ty Jerome (G) - OUT (calf, 6-9 weeks)
- Scotty Pippen Jr. (G) - OUT (toe surgery)
- John Konchar (G) - OUT (thumb)
- Cedric Coward (F) - OUT (left ankle sprain)
- Vince Williams Jr. (G) - QUESTIONABLE (knee)
Bottom Line: Memphis is decimated by injuries. If both Wembanyama and Morant sit, this becomes a battle of depleted rosters with SAS having the edge due to De’Aaron Fox leadership. If Wemby plays and Morant doesn’t, Spurs have significant advantage.
Season Series
Spurs lead 2-0 (both in San Antonio)
- Nov 18: SAS 111, MEM 101 (Wemby OUT, Morant OUT)
- Dec 2: SAS 126, MEM 119 (Wemby OUT, Morant OUT)
Key Insight: Spurs have beaten Memphis twice without their franchise player, suggesting strong depth. However, both games were at home - this is the first road meeting.
Team Profiles
San Antonio Spurs (25-11, 1st Southwest)
| Metric | L6 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 25-11 |
| PPG | 116.5 | 119.5 |
| Opp PPG | 117.0 | 114.3 |
| Pace | 100.9 | - |
| Off Rtg | 115.6 | - |
| Def Rtg | 116.0 | - |
| Net Rtg | -0.4 | - |
Recent Form:
- Jan 3: L vs POR 110-115 (upset loss)
- Jan 2: W @ IND 123-113
- Dec 31: W vs NYK 134-132
- Dec 29: L vs CLE 101-113
- Dec 27: L vs UTA 114-127
- Dec 25: W @ OKC 117-102
Trend Alert: Spurs have gone 3-3 in last 6 after a dominant mid-December stretch. Defense has cratered (-23.8 net rating swing from first 5 to last 5 of last 10 games). Scoring declining ~7 PPG.
Rest: 2 days rest (played Jan 3)
Road Performance: 13-6 (.684), 120.0 PPG, 115.7 Opp PPG
Memphis Grizzlies (15-20, 3rd Southwest)
| Metric | L6 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 15-20 |
| PPG | 124.2 | 116.2 |
| Opp PPG | 122.5 | 116.9 |
| Pace | 104.3 | - |
| Off Rtg | 117.3 | - |
| Def Rtg | 115.5 | - |
| Net Rtg | +1.7 | - |
Recent Form:
- Jan 4: L @ LAL 114-120
- Jan 2: L @ LAL 121-128
- Dec 30: L vs PHI 136-139 OT
- Dec 28: L @ WAS 112-116
- Dec 26: W vs MIL 125-104
- Dec 23: W @ UTA 137-128
Trend Alert: Lost 4 straight. High-scoring games but defensive woes. Lost to WASHINGTON at their nadir. Injuries have ravaged depth.
Rest: 1 day rest (played Jan 4)
Home Performance: 7-9 (.438), 118.9 PPG, 116.4 Opp PPG
Four Factors Analysis (L6)
| Factor | SAS | MEM | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 51.4% | 55.7% | MEM +4.3% |
| TOV% | 10.5% | 12.4% | SAS (lower is better) |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 22.3% | SAS +3.4% |
| FT Rate | 0.255 | 0.217 | SAS +0.038 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 54.0% | MEM (lower is better) |
| Opp TOV% | 10.7% | 13.3% | MEM (higher is better) |
Analysis: Memphis shoots it better, but San Antonio is more disciplined with the ball, crashes the offensive glass harder, and gets to the line more. Memphis forces more turnovers but allows similar shooting efficiency.
Head-to-Head Deep Dive
Game 1: Nov 18 - SAS 111, MEM 101
- Context: Neither Wembanyama nor Morant played
- Key Stats: SAS shot 57.5% eFG, MEM 46.2% eFG; SAS dominated TOV (8.8% vs 11.5%)
- Pace: 96.4 (slow grinder)
Game 2: Dec 2 - SAS 126, MEM 119
- Context: Neither Wembanyama nor Morant played; Castle OUT for SAS
- Key Stats: Similar eFG (55.4% vs 55.0%); SAS won turnover battle decisively (6.2% vs 13.0%)
- Pace: 101.6 (up-tempo)
Pattern: San Antonio’s ball security is the differentiator. De’Aaron Fox running the show has been excellent. Harrison Barnes consistent in both (24, 31 pts).
Situational Factors
Rest Advantage
- SAS: 2 days rest
- MEM: 1 day rest
- Edge: SAS (+1 day)
SAS on 2+ Days Rest: 4-4, 114.6 PPG MEM on 1 Day Rest: 9-13, 115.5 PPG
Schedule Context
- SAS just completed a road trip (won @ IND), returned home (lost to POR), now travels again
- MEM just lost 2 straight @ LAL, returns home
Home/Away Splits
- SAS Road: 13-6 (.684) - Elite road team
- MEM Home: 7-9 (.438) - Struggling at home
Common Opponents Analysis
Against 18 shared opponents:
- SAS: 18-11 (.621), +3.9 point differential
- MEM: 11-15 (.423), -0.9 point differential
Notable common opponent results:
- vs UTA: SAS lost 114-127 (Dec 27), MEM won 137-128 (Dec 23)
- vs OKC: SAS won 130-110 (Dec 23), MEM lost 103-119 (Dec 22)
- vs WAS: SAS won 119-94 (Dec 18), MEM lost 112-116 (Dec 28)
Projected Totals Analysis
Pace Projection:
- SAS L6 Pace: 100.9
- MEM L6 Pace: 104.3
- Combined/2: 102.6
Offensive Efficiency:
- SAS Off Rtg vs MEM Def Rtg: 115.6 vs 115.5 → ~115.5
- MEM Off Rtg vs SAS Def Rtg: 117.3 vs 116.0 → ~116.5
Raw Total Projection:
- Possessions: ~102.6
- Combined efficiency: ~232 per 100
- Raw Total: (102.6 × 232) / 100 = 238 points
Adjustments:
- MEM injuries (Edey, Coward out; Morant questionable): -4 to -8 points
- SAS injuries (Vassell out; Wemby questionable): -3 to -6 points
- H2H history (avg total: 218.5): Suggests lower-scoring games between these teams
- MEM home games averaging 235.3 combined
Adjusted Total Range: 224-232
Fair Lines & Market Assessment
Spread Analysis
Power Rating Approach:
- SAS Season Net Rtg: +5.2 (elite)
- MEM Season Net Rtg: -0.7 (below average)
- Raw Spread: SAS -5.9 (neutral)
- Home Court Adjustment: +3 MEM → SAS -2.9
Injury Adjustments (estimated): If Wemby OUT + Vassell OUT: SAS -3 to -4 If Morant OUT + Edey OUT + depth: MEM +3 to +4 Net injury impact: Push to slight SAS advantage
H2H Adjustment: SAS 2-0 this season, averaging +8.5 margin
Fair Spread: SAS -3.5 to -4.5
Total Analysis
Fair Total: 226-230
Given H2H totals (218.5 avg) and Memphis defensive struggles but injury-depleted offense, project toward lower end.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Play: SAN ANTONIO -3.5 (if available)
Confidence: Medium-High
Rationale:
- Spurs 2-0 in season series with decisive wins
- SAS elite road team (13-6) vs MEM struggling at home (7-9)
- Rest advantage (2 days vs 1)
- MEM injury list is catastrophic - missing 6+ rotation players
- De’Aaron Fox has been phenomenal running this team
- Ball security edge (SAS L6 TOV% 10.5% vs MEM 12.4%)
Concerns:
- Wembanyama questionable (but Spurs won both H2H without him)
- Vassell out
- MEM desperate at home
- Spurs recent form slipping (3-3 L6)
Secondary Play: UNDER 230
Confidence: Medium
Rationale:
- H2H games averaged 218.5 total
- Memphis missing Edey (paint presence), Coward, potentially Morant
- SAS plays at slower pace (100.9 L6)
- First H2H was 212 total, second was 245 (outlier)
Concerns:
- MEM home games averaging high totals
- If Morant plays, pace increases
- Both teams can score in bunches
Avoid: Player Props
Too much injury uncertainty. Wait for official injury reports.
Game Script Scenarios
Scenario 1: Wembanyama PLAYS, Morant OUT
Most Likely Outcome: SAS wins by 6-10 points
- Wemby dominates interior vs Edey-less Memphis
- Fox + Wemby PnR unstoppable without Morant backcourt pressure
- Play: SAS -4.5, Under 228
Scenario 2: Both Stars OUT
Expected Outcome: Close game, SAS wins by 3-6
- Similar to prior H2H matchups
- Depth battle favors healthier SAS rotation
- Play: SAS -3, Under 224
Scenario 3: Both Stars PLAY
Expected Outcome: High-scoring affair, SAS by 1-5
- Morant vs Castle matchup fascinating
- Wemby vs Aldama/JJJ battle
- Pace increases significantly
- Play: SAS -2.5, Over 234
Scenario 4: Morant PLAYS, Wembanyama OUT (Unlikely)
Expected Outcome: Coin flip, slight MEM edge
- Morant can take over without Wemby interior presence
- Play: MEM +1, Over 232
Summary
| Bet | Line | Rating | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAS Spread | -3.5 | ★★★★☆ | 72% |
| Under | 230 | ★★★☆☆ | 64% |
| SAS ML | -160 | ★★★☆☆ | 68% |
Key Number Alert: 3 and 3.5 are critical NBA numbers. SAS -3 significantly better than -4.5.
WAIT FOR: Official injury reports before placing bets. Wembanyama and Morant status will swing these lines 2-3 points.
Report generated: January 6, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference via MCP, ESPN, team injury reports