Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

January 8, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET | Target Center, Minneapolis

Key Information

Minnesota enters as a complete team firing on all cylinders: The Timberwolves rank top-6 in offensive, defensive, AND net rating - one of only three NBA teams that can claim that distinction. They’ve won their last three games by double digits (vs MIA 122-94, @ WAS 141-115, @ MIA 125-115) and have rediscovered the defensive identity that made them contenders. After an embarrassing late-December stretch including losses to Brooklyn and Atlanta, Minnesota has responded with purpose and intensity.

Cleveland’s defense has quietly stabilized: After a rough first-half sample (negative net rating), the Cavaliers have flipped to a +6.4 net rating over their last 5 games, driven primarily by defensive improvement (DRtg dropped 15.3 points from 123.2 to 107.9). They’ve beaten quality opponents recently (DEN 113-108, PHO 129-113) but also lost to Detroit at home.

Max Strus out, Larry Nance questionable for Cleveland: Max Strus remains OUT (Jones fracture surgery), Dean Wade OUT (knee contusion), and Larry Nance Jr. QUESTIONABLE (calf strain). This depletes Cleveland’s bench depth and perimeter shooting. Minnesota is close to full strength with only Terrence Shannon Jr. OUT (foot).

This is Game 1 of a home-and-home series: Both teams will see each other again soon, adding a layer of scouting and adjustment to consider. Minnesota has the home advantage tonight.

Betting Lines

Opening Line: MIN -3 ESPN Matchup Predictor: MIN 56.5% / CLE 43.5%

Team Profiles

Cleveland Cavaliers (21-17)

Four Factors (L6):

• eFG%: 54.8%

  Opp eFG%: 50.5%

• TOV%: 14.1%

  Forced TOV%: 12.8%

• ORB%: 28.2%

  DRB%: 75.0%

• FT Rate: 0.173

  Opp FT Rate: 0.192

Last 6 Games:

Splits:

• Home: 13-9, Off 116.7 / Def 114.0
• Away: 8-8, Off 117.2 / Def 115.7
• On 1 day rest: 14-11

Key Players:

• Donovan Mitchell: 29.8 PPG (4th in NBA), 49.7 FG%, 83.7 FT%
• Darius Garland: Exploded for 14 Q4 points in recent Pacers win
• Evan Mobley & Jarrett Allen: Twin towers provide length

Minnesota Timberwolves (24-13)

Four Factors (L6):

• eFG%: 56.7%

  Opp eFG%: 53.1%

• TOV%: 10.5% (excellent)

  Forced TOV%: 14.2%

• ORB%: 26.2%

  DRB%: 76.0%

• FT Rate: 0.208

  Opp FT Rate: 0.163

Last 6 Games:

Splits:

• Home: 13-6, Off 115.9 / Def 109.7 (elite defense at home)
• Away: 11-7, Off 120.2 / Def 116.1
• On 1 day rest: 15-9

Key Players:

• Anthony Edwards: 26.0 PPG (L20), 29.3 season, 4.6 RPG, 3.2 APG
• Julius Randle: 20.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.7 APG
• Rudy Gobert: 11.9 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG - anchoring renewed defense
• Naz Reid: 15.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG off bench

Matchup Analysis

Pace & Style Projection

Both teams play at moderate pace (~101.3-101.7), suggesting a controlled, half-court oriented game. Minnesota’s recent 122+ PPG output has come against weaker defenses (MIA twice, WAS). Cleveland will attempt to slow this down with their twin towers.

Projected Pace: ~100-102

Efficiency Edge: Minnesota

Minnesota’s offensive efficiency advantage is substantial. Their 56.7% eFG% in the L6 sample dwarfs Cleveland’s 54.8%. The Wolves are taking care of the ball (10.5% TOV%) while Cleveland turns it over at 14.1%.

Frontcourt Battle

This is the game’s most intriguing matchup:

• MIN: Gobert (rim protection) + Randle (scoring/playmaking)
• CLE: Allen + Mobley (elite defensive length)

Cleveland’s twin towers can disrupt Minnesota’s paint game, but Gobert is on a hot stretch and Randle has been facilitating well. Edge goes to MIN for overall offensive versatility.

Perimeter Scoring

• Mitchell (29.8 PPG) vs Edwards (29.3 PPG)
• Both can take over games, but Mitchell is playing without Max Strus’s floor spacing
• Edwards has looked MVP-caliber in January with renewed focus

Home Court

Minnesota is 13-6 at Target Center with a +6.2 net rating at home (Off 115.9 / Def 109.7). Their defense particularly tightens at home.

Injury Impact Assessment

Cleveland Missing:

• Max Strus (OUT) - Major loss of perimeter shooting and bench scoring
• Dean Wade (OUT) - Veteran depth
• Larry Nance Jr. (Questionable) - Energy and small-ball versatility
• Impact: Reduces Cleveland’s shooting and bench quality significantly

Minnesota Missing:

• Terrence Shannon Jr. (OUT) - Rotation player but not critical
• Impact: Minimal - nearly full strength

Edge: Minnesota (+1.5 to +2 points equivalent)

Situational Factors

Minnesota has played 4 games in 6 days but has handled it well with three straight dominant wins. Both teams are rested.

Trends & ATS Data

Cleveland:

• 8-8 straight up on the road
• Defense improving (DRtg dropped 15.3 pts over L10)
• Recent quality wins vs DEN, PHO suggest capable of upset

Minnesota:

• 13-6 at home (68.4% win rate)
• Won 3 straight by double digits
• 7-3 in L10 overall
• Top-6 in all three major ratings - elite profile

Betting Analysis

Fair Lines Calculation

Power Rating Approach:

• Minnesota Net Rating (L6): +9.0
• Cleveland Net Rating (L6): +2.3
• Differential: 6.7 points
• Home Court Adjustment: +2.5 to +3.5 for MIN
• Injury Adjustment: +1.5 for MIN (Strus out)

Fair Spread: MIN -4.5 to -5.5

Current Market: MIN -2.5 to -3

Edge Identification

The market appears to be undervaluing Minnesota’s current form and Cleveland’s injury situation.

Total Analysis

• Combined L6 PPG: CLE 114.2 + MIN 122.2 = 236.4
• But this overstates - MIN’s 122 PPG came vs weak defenses
• Cleveland’s defense has tightened significantly
• MIN defense at home: 109.7 DRtg (excellent)
• Pace projection: ~101 (controlled)

Fair Total: 234-238 Market: 240 Edge: UNDER 240.5

Recommended Plays

Primary Play: Minnesota -3 (-110)

Confidence: Medium-High

Minnesota is playing elite basketball with top-6 rankings in offensive, defensive, and net rating. They’ve won 3 straight by double digits and are dominant at home (13-6, +6.2 net). Cleveland is without Max Strus and facing a team that matches up well against their twin towers. The 2-point edge vs fair line is significant.

Key factors:

• MIN’s complete team profile (one of 3 teams top-6 all three ratings)
• CLE missing Strus (shooting/spacing)
• MIN home defense elite (109.7 DRtg)
• Minnesota’s renewed focus since New Year

Secondary Play: UNDER 240.5 (-110)

Confidence: Medium

Both teams play controlled pace. Minnesota’s gaudy scoring numbers came against Washington and Miami. Cleveland has a legitimate frontcourt defense with Allen and Mobley. Minnesota’s home defense has been excellent. Fair total projects 234-238.

Key factors:

• Both teams at ~101 pace
• Cleveland’s defensive improvement (L5 DRtg: 107.9)
• Minnesota’s home DRtg: 109.7
• Quality defenses tend to produce lower-scoring affairs

Situational Lean: Mitchell Under Points (if available)

Without Strus’s floor spacing and facing Minnesota’s renewed defensive intensity with Gobert protecting the rim, Mitchell may face tougher scoring conditions than usual.

Game Projection

Projected Final: Minnesota 117, Cleveland 111

Minnesota’s superior efficiency, home court, and nearly full health should carry them to a comfortable victory. Cleveland has enough talent to keep it competitive, but the Strus absence and Minnesota’s dominant January form are significant factors.

Spread Pick: Minnesota -3 Total Pick: Under 240.5

Summary

Minnesota is one of the league’s most complete teams and has rediscovered their defensive identity since the New Year. Cleveland is capable but diminished by injuries. The market is offering Minnesota at a discount to fair value.

Report generated January 8, 2026