Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
| **January 8, 2026 | 9:00 PM ET | Delta Center, Salt Lake City** |
Key Information
- Jazz on 5-game losing streak with defensive woes (125.7 DRtg L6) but return home where they’re 8-11 with stronger offense (120.3 ORtg)
- Kyrie Irving OUT indefinitely for Mavericks; D’Angelo Russell also out (illness); Cooper Flagg emerging as primary playmaker with 20/8/6 in last game
- Dereck Lively II OUT (foot surgery Dec 21) - major rim protection loss for Dallas
- Walker Kessler OUT (season-ending shoulder surgery), Ace Bailey GTD (hip flexor), Georges Niang OUT (foot) for Jazz
- Mavs won at SAC on Jan 6 (100-98) despite shooting 41% - Anthony Davis had 19/16/2blk
- Previous meeting (Dec 15): Jazz won 140-133 OT at Delta Center - high-scoring affair
Situational Profile
| Factor | Dallas | Utah | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-23 | 12-24 | DAL |
| L6 Record | 2-4 | 2-4 | Even |
| Rest Days | 1 | 2 | UTA |
| Back-to-Back | No | No | Even |
| Streak | W2 | L5 | DAL |
Road/Home Splits:
- DAL Away: 4-13 (112.1 PPG, 118.5 OPP)
- UTA Home: 8-11 (126.3 PPG, 129.5 OPP)
Statistical Comparison (L6 Games)
| Metric | Dallas | Utah | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 103.2 | 99.5 | +3.7 DAL |
| Off Rating | 107.1 | 118.7 | +11.6 UTA |
| Def Rating | 111.2 | 125.7 | +14.5 DAL |
| Net Rating | -4.1 | -7.1 | +3.0 DAL |
| PPG | 110.5 | 118.2 | +7.7 UTA |
| Opp PPG | 114.8 | 125.0 | +10.2 DAL |
Four Factors (L6):
| Factor | DAL Off | DAL Def | UTA Off | UTA Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.7% | 57.6% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 11.4% |
| ORB% | 17.2% | 24.2% | 23.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 14.4% | 22.2% | 20.5% |
Injury Report
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | OUT (indefinite) | All-Star guard, major offensive loss - no timetable |
| D’Angelo Russell | OUT (illness) | Backup PG, recent acquisition |
| Dereck Lively II | OUT (foot surgery) | Starting center, rim protection - surgery Dec 21 |
| Dante Exum | OUT (season) | Backup guard - season-ending knee surgery |
| Anthony Davis | GTD | Starting forward - listed on injury report |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | GTD | Reserve forward |
Utah Jazz
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Walker Kessler | OUT (season) | Rim protection anchor - torn labrum surgery |
| Ace Bailey | GTD (hip flexor) | Rookie forward, #5 pick - game-time decision |
| Georges Niang | OUT (foot) | Bench scoring - out until Jan 12+ |
| Kevin Love | OUT (rest) | Veteran big rotation minutes |
| Jusuf Nurkic | DTD (toe) | Starting center depth |
Trends & Context
Dallas Mavericks:
- Scoring trend: DECLINING (-7.3% over last 10 games: 118 PPG first 5 → 109.4 PPG last 5)
- Lost 6 of last 9 overall before current 2-game win streak
- Road struggles: 4-13 with -6.4 point differential
- Anthony Davis averaging 19 PPG/16 RPG as anchor
- Cooper Flagg breakout: Career-high 29 points recently
Utah Jazz:
- Scoring trend: DECLINING (-8.7% over last 10 games: 126.6 → 115.6)
- Lost at OKC 123-127 OT (Jan 7), at POR 117-137 (Jan 5), at GSW 114-123 (Jan 3), at LAC 101-118 (Jan 1)
- Home scoring explodes: 126.3 PPG at Delta Center
- Lauri Markkanen: Trade chatter continues but unlikely to move per SI reports
- Keyonte George developing as primary ball handler
- Defensive disaster on road trip: allowed 118-137 in last 4 losses
Common Opponents Performance:
- DAL: 10-15, scoring 112.4 PPG, allowing 117.1 PPG
- UTA: 9-19, scoring 118.6 PPG, allowing 126.7 PPG
Head-to-Head
Season Series: UTA leads 1-0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15 | DAL @ UTA | 133-140 OT | High-scoring OT affair, Jazz won by 7 |
Series Context:
- First of 3 remaining meetings (Jan 15, Jan 17 at Dallas)
- Combined 273 points in first meeting - both offenses clicking
- OT suggests teams were evenly matched despite records
Market Analysis
Current Lines:
- Spread: DAL -7.5 (-110)
- Total: 241.5 (o-115/u-110)
- Moneyline: DAL -265 / UTA +210
Line Movement:
- Opened: DAL -5.5, O/U 237.5
- Current: DAL -7.5 to -8.0, O/U 241.5
- Movement: 2-2.5 points toward DAL, 4 points on total
- Sharp action appears on Jazz based on spread movement
Model Projections
Pace-Adjusted Projection:
- Expected pace: ~101 possessions (avg of both teams)
- DAL implied points: 108-112
- UTA implied points: 115-120
Projected Final: DAL 111, UTA 118
Based on L6 efficiency metrics applied to expected pace
Fair Value Assessment
| Bet | Market Price | Fair Value | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL -7.5 | -110 | DAL -3 | -4.5 pts (fade) |
| UTA +7.5 | -110 | UTA +3 | +4.5 pts (value) |
| Over 241.5 | -115 | 229 | -12.5 pts (fade) |
| Under 241.5 | -110 | 229 | +12.5 pts (value) |
| DAL ML | -265 | ~-140 | No value |
| UTA ML | +210 | ~+140 | Value |
Edge Calculation Notes:
- Jazz significantly better offensively L6 (118.7 vs 107.1 ORtg)
- Previous meeting went 273 total, but both teams trending DOWN offensively
- Utah’s home offensive boost (+10 PPG) partially offset by Mavs’ tightening defense
- Kyrie Irving absence (-20+ PPG normally) not fully priced into spread
Best Bets
Primary Plays
1. Utah Jazz +7.5 (-110)
- Rating: A-
- Edge: +4.5 points
Jazz won the first meeting by 7, have offensive weapons (Markkanen, George) to exploit Dallas’ mediocre road defense (115.8 DRtg away), and the Mavs are missing Kyrie. The spread has moved too far - Dallas’ recent wins were ugly grind-it-out affairs (100-98, 110-104) not 8-point blowouts.
2. Under 241.5 (-110)
- Rating: B+
- Edge: +12.5 points
Both teams trending down offensively (DAL: -8.6 PPG, UTA: -11 PPG over last 10). Dallas’ last game was 198 total. Utah has scored 101, 114, 117 in last 3 (avg 110.7). The 241.5 is priced for the high-scoring first meeting, but recent form suggests 225-230 range.
Secondary Play
3. Lauri Markkanen Over Points (check prop)
- Jazz will lean on their star at home
- Markkanen had 27+ in both wins after returning from injury
- Dallas lacks interior presence with Lively out
Risk Factors
For Jazz +7.5:
- 4-game losing streak, confidence shaken
- Could get blown out if Mavs defense travels
- Ace Bailey/depth questions
For Under:
- Previous meeting was 273 total
- Jazz home games average 255.8 combined points
- Pace could elevate if Jazz get comfortable
Game Script Scenarios
Most Likely (55%): Competitive game, Jazz keep it within 5. Markkanen/George lead balanced attack while Davis-Flagg carry Dallas. Final: DAL 112, UTA 109.
Mavs Cover (25%): Dallas defense travels, Cooper Flagg erupts for 25+, Jazz continue road trip hangover despite being home. Final: DAL 118, UTA 106.
Jazz Win Outright (20%): Home crowd energizes team, Mavs road woes continue, Markkanen drops 30+. Final: UTA 124, DAL 115.
Final Recommendation
| Bet | Stake | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| UTA +7.5 | 2u | High |
| Under 241.5 | 1.5u | Medium-High |
| UTA ML +210 | 0.5u | Speculative |
Total Risk: 4u
The market has overcorrected on Dallas after two grind-out wins. Utah is bad but not 8-point worse than a Kyrie-less Mavs team on the road. The total is inflated based on the December meeting; both teams’ recent scoring suggests this stays closer to 225-230.
Report generated: January 8, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, MCP Box Score Database, Sports Reference
Roster Notes
Dallas Mavericks Key Players:
- Cooper Flagg (R) - #1 overall pick, 6’9” forward, emerging star
- Anthony Davis - Acquired offseason, 20.4 PPG/10.8 RPG anchor
- Daniel Gafford - Starting C with Lively out
- Max Christie - Trade acquisition from LAL
- Naji Marshall - Key rotation wing
Utah Jazz Key Players:
- Lauri Markkanen - Franchise star, 7’0” forward, trade speculation
- Keyonte George - 2nd year PG, primary ball handler
- Collin Sexton - Scoring guard off bench
- Jordan Clarkson - 6th man type scoring
- John Collins - PF presence
- Kyle Filipowski (R) - 2024 #32 pick, center depth