Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics

January 7, 2026 | 7:00 PM ET | TD Garden

Key Information

Critical Storylines

• Nuggets Missing Multiple Starters: Denver is decimated by injuries. Nikola Jokic (knee hyperextension, out since Dec 30), Aaron Gordon (hamstring, out since Nov 21), Christian Braun (ankle, out since Nov 12), and Cam Johnson (knee bone bruise, Dec 23) are all OUT. Jamal Murray (questionable) is the lone healthy starter - if he plays.
• Celtics Without Tatum, But Rolling: Jayson Tatum (torn Achilles, May 2025) remains out for the season. However, Jaylen Brown has elevated to superstar level (28.2 PPG over last 20 games), and Boston is on a 4-game win streak with a 5-1 L6 record.
• Massive Schedule Disparity: Denver is on a grueling East Coast road trip (3rd game in 4 nights, 4th in 6 nights). Boston plays at home with 1 day rest and no schedule flags.
• Trend Divergence: Boston’s offense is surging (+7.1 ORtg improvement over L10), while Denver’s has cratered (-5.8 ORtg) and their defense has collapsed (+3.5 DRtg, worse).

Injury Report

Market Analysis

Current Lines

Line Movement

• Opened: BOS -10
• Current: BOS -9.5 (-108)
• Movement indicates slight respect for Nuggets despite injuries

Statistical Comparison

Season Overview

Last 6 Games Performance

Four Factors (L6)

Rating Trends (L10)

Rest & Schedule Analysis

Rest Days Performance

Current Situation

Analysis: Denver is in the middle of an exhausting East Coast road trip, playing their 4th game in 6 days. Boston is well-rested at home. This is a massive situational advantage for Boston.

Recent Results

Denver Nuggets (2-4 L6)

Boston Celtics (5-1 L6)

Head-to-Head

• Season Series: 0-0 (First meeting)
• Context: This would normally be an elite matchup between the last two NBA champions. However, with Jokic out, this is not a fair fight.

Roster Context

Denver Nuggets (Depleted)

Available Starters: Jamal Murray (questionable) Key Available: Tim Hardaway Jr., Julian Strawther, Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, DaRon Holmes II, Bruce Brown OUT: Jokic, Gordon, Braun, Cam Johnson, Valanciunas

Without Jokic, Denver loses their playmaking hub, rim protection, and the player who makes their entire system function. Murray has been carrying a massive load as “the last starter standing.”

Boston Celtics (Nearly Full Strength)

Core Available: Jaylen Brown (28.2 PPG L20), Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Anfernee Simons OUT: Jayson Tatum (season), Josh Minott

Brown has been an MVP-caliber player in Tatum’s absence. White and Pritchard have stepped up as elite complementary pieces.

Betting Analysis

The Case for Boston -9.5

• Denver without Jokic is a different team entirely (2-4 L6, -6.4 Net Rating)
• Boston is scorching hot (5-1 L6, +14.3 Net Rating) with improving offense
• Massive schedule/rest advantage (BOS at home, DEN on brutal road trip)
• L6 stats show 20.7 net rating differential favoring Boston
• Boston is 11-5 at home; Denver’s road efficiency drops

The Case for Denver +9.5

• Denver still has Murray, who’s playing at All-Star level
• Road team getting nearly double digits against a team also missing a star
• Nuggets OT win at Philly (Jan 5) shows fight
• Line has ticked down from -10 to -9.5

The Case for UNDER 230.5

• Both teams’ defensive ratings trending worse, but…
• Denver without Jokic averaging 117.2 PPG (L6), not their usual high-scoring selves
• Denver’s pace is controlled (96.9)
• Fatigued teams often play slower
• Projected total: 222-226 based on recent performance

The Case for OVER 230.5

• Boston averaging 126.3 PPG (L6) with elite offensive rating
• Denver’s defense has cratered (125.3 DRtg L6 = 123.5 Opp PPG)
• Boston could exploit Jokic’s absence with interior scoring

Fair Lines & Edges

Spread

Total

Recommendations

Primary Play: UNDER 230.5

Confidence: 7/10

The total feels inflated. Denver is averaging 117.2 PPG over their last 6 without their offensive engine. Their pace is controlled, and fatigue from a grueling road trip should dampen their output. While Boston’s offense has been prolific, a fatigued Denver team may slow the game down and grind.

Secondary Play: Boston -9.5

Confidence: 6/10

The matchup disparity is extreme. Boston has a +20.7 net rating advantage over the L6. However, 9.5 is a lot of points to lay, and Murray could keep this respectable if he plays. The total feels like the sharper angle.

Props to Watch

• Jaylen Brown Over Points: Likely 28.5 or so. He’s been averaging 28.2 over L20 and should feast against a depleted Denver defense
• Jamal Murray Over Points (if active): He’s been carrying massive usage with all starters out

Game Projection

Summary

This game features a severely compromised Denver squad missing 4-5 starters (including MVP Nikola Jokic) traveling to face a hot Boston team at home. The Celtics, despite missing Tatum, have found their stride behind Jaylen Brown’s superstar play and are 5-1 in their last 6 with elite offensive numbers.

Key Factors:

1. Jokic’s absence is crippling - Denver’s net rating is -6.4 without him
2. Celtics’ offense is surging (+7.1 ORtg improvement L10)
3. Massive schedule advantage for Boston (Denver on 3rd game in 4 nights)
4. Total seems inflated given Denver’s diminished scoring ability

Sharp Angle: The UNDER 230.5 offers the best value. Denver simply can’t score like they do with Jokic, and fatigue should compound their offensive struggles.