Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
January 8, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET | United Center, Chicago
Key Information
From Preview Articles:
- Miami’s rim pressure vs Chicago’s interior defense will be a pivotal matchup; Bulls’ defensive versatility noted as potential disruptor
- Tyler Herro returned Jan 6 after missing 30 of first 36 games with injuries - in reacclimation phase, played limited minutes in blowout loss to MIN
- Norman Powell pushing through hamstring soreness - exited early vs MIN on Jan 3 but returned and finished with 21 points; continues playing through pain
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. day-to-day (ankle) - headlines Heat injury report
- Bulls sitting Coby White on back-to-backs - rested vs DET on Jan 7, could return vs MIA
- Josh Giddey OUT (hamstring) for Bulls - significant playmaking loss
- Expert consensus split: Some favor Heat ATS given Bulls’ 3-game losing streak, others like Bulls getting 7 points at home
- Bulls’ offense in freefall: Scoring declined 11.2% over last 10 games (125.2 to 111.2 PPG)
Game Overview
| Team | Record | L6 | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA Heat | 20-17 | 4-2 | -7 | 241.5 |
| CHI Bulls | 17-19 | 2-4 | +7 | 241.5 |
Rest Situation:
- MIA: 1 day rest (played Jan 6) - Note: Some sources indicate 4-in-6 schedule density
- CHI: 2 days rest (played Jan 5)
| Venue: United Center, Chicago, IL | TV: NBA TV, FDSSUN, CHSN |
Injury Report
Miami Heat
| Player | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | ACTIVE | Returned Jan 6 after missing 30 of 36 games; in reacclimation |
| Norman Powell | Probable | Pushing through hamstring soreness |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | Day-to-Day | Ankle - listed on injury report |
| Terry Rozier | OUT | On leave from team |
Chicago Bulls
| Player | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Coby White | Probable | Rested Jan 7 B2B, expected to return |
| Josh Giddey | OUT | Hamstring - significant playmaking loss |
| Zach Collins | OUT | Wrist |
| Matas Buzelis | Day-to-Day | Listed on injury report |
Statistical Comparison (L6 Games)
| Metric | MIA | CHI | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 2-4 | MIA |
| Pace | 105.9 | 99.4 | MIA +6.5 |
| Off Rating | 117.0 | 110.3 | MIA +6.7 |
| Def Rating | 111.2 | 118.5 | MIA -7.3 |
| Net Rating | +5.8 | -8.2 | MIA +14.0 |
| PPG | 123.5 | 109.8 | MIA +13.7 |
| Opp PPG | 117.3 | 117.8 | Even |
Four Factors (L6)
| Factor | MIA | CHI | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.1% | MIA |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 11.7% | CHI |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 20.2% | MIA |
| FT Rate | 0.172 | 0.157 | MIA |
Defensive Four Factors:
| Factor | MIA | CHI | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 54.0% | CHI |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 8.6% | MIA |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 77.4% | MIA |
| Opp FT Rate | 0.197 | 0.187 | CHI |
Trends & Splits
Home/Away Performance
Miami (Road): 7-11, 118.2 PPG, 117.9 Opp PPG, Off Rtg 113.2, Def Rtg 113.1 Chicago (Home): 10-9, 113.6 PPG, 118.0 Opp PPG, Off Rtg 112.6, Def Rtg 117.0
Rest Performance
Miami on 1 day rest: 11-10, 121.1 PPG, 117.5 Opp PPG Chicago on 2+ days rest: 4-3, 121.1 PPG, 119.4 Opp PPG
Scoring Trends (Last 10)
Miami: Stable (-0.2%) - 120.0 first half, 119.8 second half Chicago: DECLINING (-11.2%) - 125.2 first half, 111.2 second half (major red flag)
Head-to-Head
Season Series: MIA leads 1-0
Nov 21, 2025: MIA 143 @ CHI 107 (+36)
- Miami dominated with 130.9 offensive rating
- Chicago struggled with 15.0% turnover rate
- Key absences that game:
- MIA: Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, Terry Rozier, Andrew Wiggins
- CHI: Coby White, Zach Collins
Four Factors from H2H:
| Team | Pace | eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FT Rate | ORtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 109.2 | 54.0% | 7.7% | 32.6% | 0.350 | 130.9 |
| CHI | 109.2 | 47.8% | 15.0% | 17.4% | 0.233 | 98.0 |
Common Opponents Analysis
| Team | Record vs Common | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 15-13 | 120.5 | 118.3 |
| CHI | 16-17 | 117.1 | 120.1 |
Advantage: MIA - Better point differential vs shared opponents (+2.2 vs -3.0)
Last 6 Games Detail
Miami Heat (4-2)
| Date | Opp | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6 | @MIN | L | 94-122 |
| Jan 4 | NOP | W | 125-106 |
| Jan 3 | MIN | L | 115-125 |
| Jan 1 | @DET | W | 118-112 |
| Dec 29 | DEN | W | 147-123 |
| Dec 27 | IND | W | 142-116 |
Note: Massive variance - 3 games scoring 140+ but got crushed by MIN twice
Chicago Bulls (2-4)
| Date | Opp | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5 | @BOS | L | 101-115 |
| Jan 3 | CHO | L | 99-112 |
| Jan 2 | ORL | W | 121-114 |
| Dec 31 | NOP | W | 134-118 |
| Dec 29 | MIN | L | 101-136 |
| Dec 27 | MIL | L | 103-112 |
Note: Lost to CHO at home - concerning. Only wins vs lottery teams (ORL, NOP)
Projected Totals Analysis
Pace Projection: ~102.5 (compromise between MIA 105.9, CHI 99.4) Combined L6 PPG: 233.3 (MIA 123.5 + CHI 109.8) Line: 241.5
Factors Pushing Under:
- Chicago’s pace is very slow (99.4)
- Bulls’ offense collapsing (111.2 PPG in last 5 games of L10)
- Miami coming off brutal 94-point performance
- Herro/Jaquez not fully healthy for Heat
Factors Pushing Over:
- Miami’s L6 average is 123.5 PPG
- H2H game went 250 total
- Both teams poor defensively recently
Lean: UNDER 241.5 - Chicago’s pace will slow this down, their offense is broken
Fair Lines & Edge Analysis
Power Rating Model
Miami True Rating: Based on L6 net rating of +5.8 and season 20-17 Chicago True Rating: Based on L6 net rating of -8.2 and season 17-19
Neutral Court Spread: MIA -6.5 Home Court Adjustment: CHI +3.0 Fair Line: MIA -3.5 to -4.5
Market Line: MIA -7.0 Edge: +2.5 to +3.5 points on CHI
Moneyline Value
| Side | Market | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA ML | -265 | -190 | No value |
| CHI ML | +215 | +160 | No value |
| CHI +7 | -115 | +100 | 2-3% edge |
Sharp Angles
Fade the Blowout
Miami destroyed Chicago 143-107 on Nov 21. These blowouts rarely repeat - expect regression. Chicago will be motivated, home crowd engaged.
Chicago’s Declining Offense Trap
Yes, Bulls’ offense is collapsing (-11.2% trend), but:
- Coby White returns (was out for CHO loss)
- Giddey out but was inconsistent anyway
- Buzelis had 26 points in recent start
Miami’s Schedule Density
Playing 4-in-6 games with Herro just returning and Jaquez banged up. Fatigue factor is real.
Bulls Home Edge
Chicago is 10-9 at home (52.6%) vs 7-10 away. They’re a different team at United Center.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Play: CHI +7 (-115)
Confidence: 7/10
Seven points is too many for a home team that:
- Has extra rest (2 days vs 1)
- Gets Coby White back
- Faces fatigued opponent on 4-in-6
- Lost by 36 in H2H (regression due)
Risk: If Miami comes out angry after MIN blowout and shoots lights out, Bulls can still lose big.
Secondary Play: UNDER 241.5 (-115)
Confidence: 6/10
Chicago’s 99.4 pace will control tempo. Their offense is in freefall (111.2 PPG recent). Miami just scored 94.
Risk: Both teams have shown they can explode (MIA had 147, 142 recently; CHI had 136, 134).
Avoid: MIA ML (-265)
No value at this price. If you like Heat, take them to cover.
Roster Notes
Miami Heat Key Players
- Bam Adebayo - Anchor, 21.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG
- Norman Powell - Hot hand, 21 pts last game, playing through injury
- Tyler Herro - Just returned, limited but dangerous
- Kel’el Ware - Emerging big man contributor
Chicago Bulls Key Players
- Coby White - 24.0 PPG season avg, expected back
- Nikola Vucevic - Interior presence, double-double threat
- Matas Buzelis - Rookie showing flashes, 26 pts recently
- Ayo Dosunmu - Solid two-way guard
Final Projection
Projected Score: MIA 115, CHI 111 Projected Total: 226
This projects Miami covering but suggests the Under and Bulls +7 both have value.
Summary
| Market | Recommendation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | CHI +7 | 7/10 |
| Total | Under 241.5 | 6/10 |
| Moneyline | Pass | - |
| Live Bet | CHI if down 10+ | - |
Key Narrative: Chicago gets too many points at home with rest advantage against a fatigued Miami team still integrating Herro. The 36-point H2H blowout won’t repeat. Bulls’ offense is in freefall but 7 points provides enough cushion.
Report generated: January 8, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, NBA.com, ESPN, Action Network, Covers.com