NOP @ ATL - January 8, 2026

Game Information

Key Information

Injury Impact Assessment

New Orleans Pelicans - CRITICAL ABSENCES:

• Dejounte Murray (PG) - OUT - Right Achilles Rupture - Expected to be out until at least January 13
• Herbert Jones (F) - OUT - Right Ankle Sprain - Key defensive anchor missing
• Saddiq Bey (G) - QUESTIONABLE - Right Hip Soreness
• Derik Queen (PF) - QUESTIONABLE - Left Quad Contusion
• Zion Williamson - AVAILABLE but on minutes restriction (~28 min)

Atlanta Hawks - SIGNIFICANT ABSENCES:

• Trae Young (PG) - QUESTIONABLE - Right Quad Contusion (missed 4 straight games)
• Kristaps Porzingis (C) - OUT - Return-to-competition reconditioning (missed 10+ games with illness)
• Clint Capela (C) - OUT FOR SEASON - Hand surgery (expected back April 15)
• Kobe Bufkin (G) - OUT FOR SEASON - Shoulder
• N’Faly Dante (C) - OUT FOR SEASON - Torn ACL

Narrative Summary

The Pelicans enter as one of the NBA’s worst teams at 8-29, losers of their last 6 games, and traveling with a skeleton crew. Dejounte Murray’s Achilles rupture and Herbert Jones’ ankle sprain leave them without their two best defenders and primary playmakers. Zion Williamson is available but on a minutes restriction.

The Hawks (17-21) have also struggled, going 2-4 in their last 6 games including back-to-back losses in Toronto. However, Trae Young is questionable to return from a quad contusion that kept him out 4 straight games. Without Young, Atlanta relies heavily on Jalen Johnson (23.7 PPG) and Dyson Daniels as primary facilitators.

Key Matchup Factors

1. Pelicans’ Road Woes: NOP is 2-13 on the road (worst in NBA) with a -12.6 point differential away from home
2. Hawks Home Struggles: ATL is just 6-11 at home this season, underperforming expectations
3. Injury Disparity: While both teams are banged up, NOP’s absences are more impactful to their core rotation
4. Defensive Collapse: NOP’s L6 defensive rating of 123.6 is among the worst in the league

Statistical Comparison

Season Records

Last 6 Games Performance

Four Factors (L6)

Home/Away Splits

Rest Performance

NOP has 3 days rest. ATL has 2 days rest.

Trend Analysis

Scoring Trends (L10)

Both teams show declining scoring trends, with NOP’s decline more pronounced.

Rating Trends (L10)

NOP: Offensive rating stable (114.0 → 113.5), but defensive rating collapsing (114.2 → 125.7) ATL: Defensive rating improving (123.7 → 113.7), offense slightly declining (114.1 → 112.1)

NOP Last 6 Games

ATL Last 6 Games

Head-to-Head

Season Series: ATL leads 1-0

Key Takeaway: ATL dominated by 17 points in New Orleans, and this game is in Atlanta.

Common Opponents Performance

Atlanta significantly outperformed New Orleans against their 14 common opponents.

Betting Analysis

Market Assessment

Spread Analysis

Raw Numbers Support: ATL -10.5

• ATL’s L6 net rating (-1.8) vs NOP’s (-11.2) = 9.4 point differential
• Home/Away adjustment: ATL home (+3.5) vs NOP away (-6.4) = ~10 point swing
• Head-to-head: ATL won by 17 in New Orleans

Key Concerns:

• ATL is just 6-11 at home (poor cover rate)
• Trae Young questionable - his absence makes spread less reliable
• NOP gets 3 days rest, ATL has 2 days
• Both teams trending down offensively

Verdict: Line is efficient. NOP +10.5 has marginal value if Young sits.

Total Analysis

Pace Projection:

• NOP L6 pace: 101.3
• ATL L6 pace: 103.5
• Expected pace: ~102.4

Scoring Environment:

• Combined L6 scoring: 228.0 PPG
• NOP road PPG: 109.8, ATL home PPG: 117.5 = 227.3 combined
• NOP defensive collapse allows 123.6 L6 → inflates total
• ATL defense improving (113.7 L6)

Weather/Rest: Both teams have adequate rest. Indoor arena, no weather factors.

Verdict: UNDER 245.5 is the sharp play. The 245.5 number is inflated by NOP’s recent high-scoring losses but fails to account for:

1. NOP’s declining offense (121.2 → 114.4 PPG L10)
2. ATL’s improving defense (123.7 → 113.7 def rating L10)
3. Both teams in scoring slumps
4. Potential low-energy affair with nothing to play for (NOP) and coming off losses (ATL)

Key Player Props to Consider

If Trae Young PLAYS:

• Trae Young assists O/U - lean over on return game vs weak backcourt
• Jalen Johnson rebounds - should maintain 8+ with Porzingis out

If Trae Young SITS:

• Jalen Johnson points - becomes primary option, look for 25+
• Dyson Daniels steals - defensive specialist gets more minutes

NOP:

• Zion Williamson points - minutes-capped (~28 min), likely 18-22 point range
• Trey Murphy III points - becomes primary scorer, look for 22+ if healthy

Recommended Plays

Primary Play

Rationale: The total is inflated by NOP’s blowout losses. Both teams’ recent scoring trends are declining, ATL’s defense is improving, and this projects to a pace around 102 with both teams in the 112-118 scoring range. Fair total projects to 228-235.

Secondary Play

Rationale: Double-digit spreads are historically profitable to fade. ATL is just 6-11 at home, and without Trae Young (if he sits), their offense becomes predictable. The Pelicans have nothing to lose and occasionally show fight. Value improves if Young is ruled out closer to game time.

Conditional Play

If NOP falls behind early and line moves to -7.5 or better, consider Hawks at reduced spread.

Situational Summary

Bottom Line: Atlanta should win comfortably, but the 10.5-point spread and 245.5 total feel inflated. The Under is the strongest play, with NOP +10.5 as a secondary value spot.

Report generated: January 7, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, Covers, OddsShark, TeamRankings