Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies
January 7, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET | FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Key Information
| Factor | Insight |
|---|---|
| Line Movement | PHO opened -4.5, holding steady. Market respects Suns’ superior road performance vs. struggling home Grizzlies |
| Injury Impact | Memphis missing Zach Edey (crucial rim protector), Ja Morant questionable (calf). PHO missing Jalen Green (hamstring), Grayson Allen back from knee |
| Schedule Spot | PHO on 3-in-4 night but only 1 rest day; MEM has 2 rest days but just dropped 4 of L6. Classic “schedule vs. form” spot |
| KD Revenge Factor | Kevin Durant hit game-winner vs PHO 2 days ago for Houston. Booker (27 pts) may come out firing after that heartbreaker |
| Pace Clash | PHO plays slow (97.6 pace L6) vs MEM’s high pace (104.3). Total at 230.5 reflects expectation that PHO controls tempo |
Matchup Overview
| Phoenix Suns | Memphis Grizzlies | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-15 (7th West) | 15-20 (12th West) |
| L6 Record | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Home/Away | 9-10 Away | 7-9 Home |
| Rest Days | 1 day | 2 days |
| Back-to-Back | No | No |
| Schedule Flags | 3-in-4, 4-in-6 | None |
Season Series
- Oct 29, 2025 - MEM 114 @ PHO 113 (Memphis won in Phoenix)
Statistical Comparison (L6 Games)
| Metric | Phoenix | Memphis | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Rating | +5.9 | +1.7 | PHO +4.2 |
| Off Rating | 117.0 | 117.3 | EVEN |
| Def Rating | 111.1 | 115.5 | PHO +4.4 |
| Pace | 97.6 | 104.3 | MEM +6.7 |
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.7% | MEM +2.7% |
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 54.0% | PHO +2.2% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 12.4% | PHO |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 22.3% | PHO +8.8% |
| FT Rate | 0.176 | 0.217 | MEM |
Four Factors Analysis
Phoenix Strengths:
- Elite offensive rebounding (31.1% ORB rate L6)
- Strong defense (111.1 DRtg L6)
- Low turnover rate (11.9%)
- Forces turnovers (13.4% opponent TOV)
Memphis Strengths:
- Higher effective field goal percentage (55.7%)
- Better free throw rate (0.217)
- Faster pace creates more possessions
Recent Form
Phoenix Suns (4-2 L6)
| Date | Opp | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5 | @HOU | L | 97-100 |
| Jan 4 | OKC | W | 108-105 |
| Jan 2 | SAC | W | 129-102 |
| Dec 31 | @CLE | L | 113-129 |
| Dec 29 | @WAS | W | 115-101 |
| Dec 27 | @NOP | W | 123-114 |
Trend: Scoring declining (-3.9% L5 vs first 5). Struggled with 97 pts at Houston in last game.
Memphis Grizzlies (2-4 L6)
| Date | Opp | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4 | @LAL | L | 114-120 |
| Jan 2 | @LAL | L | 121-128 |
| Dec 30 | PHI | L (OT) | 136-139 |
| Dec 28 | @WAS | L | 112-116 |
| Dec 26 | MIL | W | 125-104 |
| Dec 23 | @UTA | W | 137-128 |
Trend: Lost 4 straight, but scoring is stable (120.8 PPG L6). Defense is the issue (allowing 122.5 PPG).
Injury Report
Phoenix Suns
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green | OUT (Hamstring) | Key scorer missing - limits depth |
| Jamaree Bouyea | OUT (Concussion) | Backup guard unavailable |
| Grayson Allen | Available | Returned from knee issue |
| Jordan Goodwin | Available (Mask) | Playing through jaw sprain |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Edey | OUT | MAJOR - Rim protection, rebounding anchor gone |
| Ja Morant | Questionable (Calf) | Missed Jan 4; was 40 pts vs PHI before injury |
| Brandon Clarke | OUT | Rotation big unavailable |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | OUT | Backup PG missing |
| Ty Jerome | OUT | Guard depth depleted |
Injury Edge: Phoenix - Losing Edey is devastating for Memphis rim protection. If Morant sits, advantage expands significantly.
Home/Away Splits
| Team | Location | Record | PPG | Opp PPG | Off Rtg | Def Rtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHO | Home | 12-5 | 116.6 | 109.1 | 118.6 | 110.9 |
| PHO | Away | 9-10 | 113.1 | 116.2 | 113.6 | 116.5 |
| MEM | Home | 7-9 | 118.9 | 116.4 | 115.6 | 113.0 |
| MEM | Away | 8-11 | 113.5 | 117.5 | 111.7 | 115.6 |
Note: Phoenix struggles on the road (9-10), but Memphis is actually WORSE at home (7-9) than away (8-11). Unusual.
Rest Performance
Phoenix by Rest Days
| Rest | Record | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 days (B2B) | 2-4 | 111.3 | 114.8 |
| 1 day | 13-8 | 116.2 | 112.7 |
| 2+ days | 5-3 | 112.8 | 111.1 |
Memphis by Rest Days
| Rest | Record | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 days (B2B) | 2-2 | 116.5 | 119.0 |
| 1 day | 9-13 | 115.5 | 117.5 |
| 2+ days | 3-5 | 115.4 | 114.0 |
Phoenix excels with 1 rest day (13-8). Memphis struggles with 2+ rest (3-5).
Common Opponents Analysis
Both teams have played 16 common opponents:
| Team | Record vs Common | PPG | Opp PPG | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHO | 21-13 | 114.6 | 112.4 | +2.2 |
| MEM | 13-14 | 116.5 | 114.7 | +1.8 |
Phoenix +8 wins better vs common opponents. Strong indicator.
Betting Analysis
Current Lines
| Book | Spread | Total | ML |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | PHO -4.5 (-110) | 230.5 | PHO -185 / MEM +153 |
Fair Value Projections
Power Rating Method:
- PHO efficiency: +5.9 net rating (L6)
- MEM efficiency: +1.7 net rating (L6)
- Home court adjustment: +3.0 for MEM
- Rest adjustment: +0.5 for MEM (2 vs 1 day)
- Injury adjustment: -2.0 for MEM (Edey out, Morant questionable)
Projected Spread: PHO -3.5 to -4.0
Edge Analysis
| Bet | Line | Fair Value | Edge | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHO -4.5 | -110 | -3.5 | -1.0 | LEAN PASS |
| MEM +4.5 | -110 | +3.5 | +1.0 | SLIGHT LEAN |
| Over 230.5 | -110 | 228 | -2.5 | LEAN UNDER |
| Under 230.5 | -110 | 228 | +2.5 | PLAY |
Recommended Plays
Primary Play: UNDER 230.5 (-110)
Rationale:
- Pace mismatch - Phoenix plays at 97.6 pace (slow), Memphis at 104.3. Phoenix typically controls tempo as better team. Expect ~100 possessions, not 108+
- Phoenix defensive strength - 111.1 DRtg L6 is elite. Should limit Memphis’ high-powered offense
- Memphis missing Edey - No rim protection means Phoenix will attack inside, eat clock, reduce Memphis fastbreak opportunities
- Suns scoring slump - PHO scored just 97 last game vs Houston. Trending down (-3.9% L5)
- Fatigue factor - PHO on 3-in-4 may conserve energy, play slower
Target: 224-228 total
Secondary Lean: MEM +4.5 (Small)
Rationale:
- Season series: MEM won in Phoenix by 1
- Home court matters even for bad home teams
- If Morant plays, spread too wide
- Public heavy on Suns; line may be inflated
Risk: If Morant OUT, fade this completely.
Game Script Projections
Most Likely (45%): Phoenix controls pace, leads by 4-8 throughout, wins 112-105. UNDER hits, spread pushes/covers.
Memphis Upset (25%): Morant plays, Memphis gets hot from 3, wins outright 118-114. UNDER still possible.
Suns Blowout (20%): Without Morant, Phoenix dominates, wins 120-106. OVER at risk.
High-Scoring Shootout (10%): Pace pushes up, both teams hot, 125-121 type game. OVER hits.
Betting Card Summary
| Play | Stake | Line | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 230.5 | 1.5 units | -110 | HIGH |
| MEM +4.5 | 0.5 units | -110 | LOW (contingent on Morant playing) |
Final Notes
- Monitor Ja Morant status pregame. If OUT, shift to PHO -4.5 and increase Under confidence
- Line opened PHO -4.5 and hasn’t moved despite MEM injuries - suggests sharp money may be on Memphis
- Revenge narrative for Booker after Durant’s game-winner could mean aggressive early scoring
- FedExForum has been hostile environment but Grizzlies just 7-9 at home
Bottom Line: The total is the cleaner play. Phoenix’s pace control and defensive prowess should keep this under 230 unless Memphis gets an unexpected offensive explosion. Spread is a coin flip at -4.5 given home court and potential Morant return.
Report generated: January 7, 2026 Data sources: MCP stats database, ESPN, NBA.com, Action Network