Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets
January 7, 2026 | 7:00 PM ET | Spectrum Center
Key Information
Charlotte has won 2 of 3 meetings this season, including a stunning 86-111 blowout win at Toronto on Dec 5. The Hornets have found a formula against Toronto despite their overall poor record.
Hornets shock the world: Charlotte just crushed league-leading OKC 124-97 on the road (Jan 5), their most impressive win of the season. Miles Bridges had 26/14 vs Chicago (Jan 3), and the team is 3-3 in L6 with a +6.5 net rating during this stretch.
Toronto rolling at home, vulnerable on the road: The Raptors are 4-2 in L6 but their away record (10-7) masks inconsistency. They lost 117-138 at Washington (Dec 26) - a game they had no business losing. Jakob Poeltl (back) is OUT, weakening interior defense against Bridges/Miller.
Schedule disparity: Charlotte playing 4-in-6 days but THRIVING - they’re 5-2 on back-to-backs this season. Toronto has 2 rest days but has struggled (2-5) on zero rest; they perform best with 1 day rest (14-8).
The line doesn’t respect Charlotte’s recent form: TOR -2.5 with a 229.5 total suggests books expect a close game, but haven’t fully adjusted for Charlotte’s hot streak or their season series dominance.
Matchup Overview
| Toronto Raptors | Charlotte Hornets | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-15 (4th East) | 13-23 (12th East) |
| L6 Record | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| L6 Net Rating | +4.0 | +6.5 |
| Rest Days | 2 | 2 |
| Schedule Flags | None | 4-in-6 days |
Season Series: Charlotte leads 2-1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17 | CHO @ TOR | 108-110 TOR | Raptors survive at home |
| Nov 29 | TOR @ CHO | 111-118 CHO | LaMelo 22/5/14, Hornets win |
| Dec 5 | CHO @ TOR | 86-111 CHO | Charlotte blowout in Toronto |
Statistical Comparison (L6 Games)
| Metric | Toronto | Charlotte | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 100.4 | 95.9 | TOR +4.5 |
| Off Rating | 117.2 | 124.3 | CHO +7.1 |
| Def Rating | 113.2 | 117.8 | TOR +4.6 |
| eFG% | 52.1% | 57.8% | CHO +5.7% |
| TOV% | 9.7% | 13.4% | TOR +3.7% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 32.0% | CHO +4.6% |
| FT Rate | 0.199 | 0.220 | CHO +0.021 |
| PPG | 120.0 | 119.2 | TOR +0.8 |
| Opp PPG | 115.7 | 113.0 | CHO +2.7 |
Four Factors Analysis
Charlotte’s Edge: Elite offensive efficiency (57.8% eFG, 124.3 ORtg) with dominant offensive rebounding (32%). Their 13.4% turnover rate is the concern.
Toronto’s Edge: Ball security (9.7% TOV) and forcing turnovers (12.2% opponent TOV%). Better pace control and defensive rebounding.
Recent Form
Toronto Raptors (L6)
| Date | Opp | Result | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5 | ATL | W 118-100 | Barnes 20/9/6 |
| Jan 3 | ATL | W 134-117 | Ingram 29, Barrett 27 |
| Dec 31 | DEN | L 103-106 | Jokic too much |
| Dec 29 | ORL | W 107-106 | Clutch home win |
| Dec 28 | GSW | W 141-127 OT | Shootout |
| Dec 26 | @WAS | L 117-138 | Embarrassing road loss |
Trend: Scoring trending UP (+17.2 PPG, first 5 vs last 5 of L10). Dominant at home but just lost big on the road.
Charlotte Hornets (L6)
| Date | Opp | Result | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5 | @OKC | W 124-97 | Statement win vs best team |
| Jan 3 | @CHI | W 112-99 | Bridges 26/14 |
| Jan 2 | @MIL | L 121-122 | Giannis buzzer-beater |
| Dec 31 | GSW | L 125-132 | High-scoring affair |
| Dec 29 | MIL | L 113-123 | Home loss |
| Dec 26 | @ORL | W 120-105 | Road W |
Trend: Scoring stable at 119 PPG. Won last 2, both on the road. Showing life after rough December stretch.
Home/Away Splits
| Toronto (Away) | Charlotte (Home) | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-7 | 7-10 |
| PPG | 114.0 | 116.4 |
| Opp PPG | 112.4 | 118.6 |
| Off Rating | 113.8 | 118.9 |
| Def Rating | 112.2 | 121.2 |
Charlotte’s home defense has been porous (121.2 DRtg), but their offense can make up for it.
Rest Performance
| Rest Days | Toronto | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| 0 days | 2-5 (100.1 PPG) | 5-2 (118.1 PPG) |
| 1 day | 14-8 (117.7 PPG) | 5-14 (114.0 PPG) |
| 2+ days | 5-2 (115.3 PPG) | 2-7 (116.6 PPG) |
Both teams have 2 rest days. Charlotte is 2-7 with 2+ rest, Toronto is 5-2. Edge: Toronto.
Injury Report
Toronto Raptors
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jakob Poeltl | OUT (Back) | Starting C, rim protection |
Impact: Significant. Poeltl’s absence hurts Toronto’s interior defense and rebounding. Mamukelashvili likely starts but gives up size to Bridges/Miller.
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mason Plumlee | OUT (Groin surgery) | Backup C |
| Grant Williams | OUT (Knee) | Key rotation |
| Josh Green | OUT (Shoulder) | Depth wing |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | OUT (Elbow) | Rookie C |
| Moussa Diabate | Questionable (Wrist) | Rotation big |
| Tidjane Salaun | Questionable (Ankle) | Rookie wing |
| Brandon Miller | Probable (Knee) | Likely plays |
Impact: Charlotte short-handed but core intact. LaMelo, Bridges, Miller all expected to play.
Top Performers
Toronto
| Player | L20 PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram | 23.5 | 6.4 | 3.4 |
| Scottie Barnes | 19.0 | 9.4 | 5.7 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 15.8 | 3.6 | 6.0 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 10.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 |
| Jamal Shead | 7.1 | 2.0 | 5.1 |
Charlotte
| Player | Recent | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Miles Bridges | 20.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG | 26/14 vs CHI |
| LaMelo Ball | 19.9 PPG, 8.9 APG | Playmaking engine |
| Brandon Miller | ~18 PPG | Probable, 22 vs CHI |
| Tre Mann | Key scorer | Bench spark |
Betting Analysis
Current Lines
| Market | Line | Movement |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TOR -2.5 (-110) | Opened -2 |
| Total | 229.5 (-110) | Opened 231.5 |
| Moneyline | TOR -137 / CHO +117 |
ATS Records
- Toronto: 17-20 ATS
- Charlotte: 21-15 ATS
Head-to-Head Betting Context
| Date | Fav | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5 | TOR -6.5 | CHO +6.5 | CHO covers (+25) |
| Nov 29 | TOR -7.5 | CHO +7.5 | CHO covers (+7) |
| Nov 17 | TOR -8.5 | TOR -8.5 | CHO covers (+6) |
Charlotte is 3-0 ATS vs Toronto this season.
Fair Odds & Edge Calculation
Model Projection
Based on L6 performance, home/away splits, rest factors, and season series:
| Factor | Weight | TOR Edge | CHO Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| L6 Net Rating | 25% | +2.5 | |
| Home/Away Performance | 20% | +2.0 | |
| Rest Performance (2+ days) | 15% | +2.5 | |
| Season Series (2-1 CHO) | 15% | +3.0 | |
| Injuries (Poeltl OUT) | 15% | +2.0 | |
| Recent Momentum | 10% | +2.0 |
Weighted Edge Calculation:
- Toronto factors: +2.0 (H/A) * 0.20 + 2.5 (rest) * 0.15 = +0.775
- Charlotte factors: +2.5 (net) * 0.25 + 3.0 (H2H) * 0.15 + 2.0 (inj) * 0.15 + 2.0 (momentum) * 0.10 = +1.575
Net Edge: Charlotte +0.8
Fair Lines
| Market | Fair Line | Book Line | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CHO +1.5 | CHO +2.5 | CHO +1.0 |
| Total | 232 | 229.5 | Over 2.5 |
| Moneyline | TOR -115 | TOR -137 | CHO +22 vig |
Recommended Plays
Primary Play: Charlotte +2.5 (-110)
Confidence: 7/10
Rationale:
- Charlotte 3-0 ATS vs Toronto this season
- Hornets coming off monster upset of OKC
- Poeltl absence hurts Toronto’s interior D
- Charlotte’s 21-15 ATS record vs Toronto’s 17-20
- Getting points at home with momentum
Risk: Toronto’s 2-day rest advantage; Charlotte 2-7 with 2+ rest
Secondary Play: Over 229.5 (-110)
Confidence: 6/10
Rationale:
- Combined L6 avg: 120 + 119.2 = 239.2 PPG
- Both teams score 115+ on the road
- Season series average: 115-113 = 228 (total moved down from 231.5)
- No Poeltl = worse Toronto rim protection
- Charlotte’s 57.8% eFG suggests scoring upside
Risk: Pace differential (TOR wants fast, CHO slower at 95.9)
Avoid: Toronto ML (-137)
Rationale: Laying -137 for 2.5 points against a team that’s beaten you twice and covered three times is poor value. If you like Toronto, take the spread.
Game Script Scenarios
Scenario 1: Charlotte Covers (55%)
LaMelo controls pace, Bridges attacks without Poeltl protecting rim. Charlotte’s offensive rebounding (32% ORB) creates second chances. Hornets keep it within 2 or win outright.
Scenario 2: Toronto Covers (45%)
Barnes/Ingram dominate perimeter, force Charlotte into turnovers (13.4% TOV rate). Toronto’s pace pushes Charlotte out of comfort zone. Raptors win by 5+.
Market Plan
Pre-Game
- CHO +2.5 (-110) - 1.5 units
- Over 229.5 (-110) - 1.0 unit
Live Betting Triggers
- If CHO falls behind 8+ in Q1: Look for CHO spread at +6 or better
- If game stays within 4 at half: Hold position
- If TOR leads by 10+ at half: Consider small CHO ML for value
Props to Monitor
- Miles Bridges O19.5 points (attacks without Poeltl)
- LaMelo Ball O8.5 assists (facilitate against Toronto’s switching D)
- Scottie Barnes O9.5 rebounds (fills Poeltl void)
Summary
This is a spot to back Charlotte. The Hornets have owned this matchup (2-1, 3-0 ATS), are coming off a signature win, and catch Toronto without their starting center. The line hasn’t moved despite Charlotte’s momentum because their season record is ugly, but they’re a different team in this specific matchup. Take the points.
Final Verdict: Charlotte +2.5, lean Over 229.5
Report generated: January 7, 2026 Data sources: MCP bball-stats, ESPN, NBA.com, Action Network