Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder

January 7, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET | Paycom Center

Key Information

Critical Insights from Preview Analysis:

OKC Bounce-Back Spot After Embarrassment: Thunder were humiliated by Charlotte 124-97 on Jan 5 - their worst home loss of the season. Elite teams typically respond emphatically after such defeats, and OKC’s home record (17-3) suggests they’ll be highly motivated.
Jazz in Free-Fall: Utah has lost 8 of their last 10 games and is on a 4-game losing streak. Their road record (4-12) is among the league’s worst, and they’ve been outscored by an average of 12.4 PPG on the road.
Season Series Dominance: OKC has dominated this matchup twice already - 144-112 and 131-101 - winning by an average of 31 points. The Thunder’s defensive intensity has completely stifled Utah’s offense in these meetings.
Key Absences Favor Thunder: Utah is without Walker Kessler, Kevin Love, Ace Bailey, and Georges Niang. OKC is missing Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, and Jaylin Williams, but their depth is far superior.
Rest Day Anomaly: Utah is 0-16 when playing on 1 day of rest this season - a stunning trend. While this game has 2 days rest, their inability to perform on normal rest underscores their struggles.

Game Overview

	Utah Jazz	Oklahoma City Thunder
Record	12-23	30-7
Standing	13th West	1st West
L6 Record	2-4	4-2
Home/Away	4-12 (Away)	17-3 (Home)

Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Rest: Both teams on 2 days rest

Team Profiles

Utah Jazz (12-23)

Last Game: L 117-137 @ POR (Jan 5)

Metric	L6 Average
Pace	99.5
Off Rating	118.7
Def Rating	125.7
Net Rating	-7.1
PPG	118.2
Opp PPG	125.0

Recent Results (L6):

Jan 5: L 117-137 @ POR
Jan 3: L 114-123 @ GSW
Jan 1: L 101-118 @ LAC
Dec 30: L 119-129 vs BOS
Dec 27: W 127-114 @ SAS
Dec 26: W 131-129 vs DET

Key Stats:

eFG%: 57.6% (L6) Opp eFG%: 57.6%
TOV%: 14.1% Opp TOV%: 11.4%
ORB%: 23.8%
FT Rate: 0.222

Injuries/Out:

Walker Kessler (Out - consistent)
Georges Niang (Out - consistent)
Kevin Love (Out)
Ace Bailey (Out - hip flexor)
Elijah Harkless (Out)

Oklahoma City Thunder (30-7)

Last Game: L 97-124 vs CHO (Jan 5)

Metric	L6 Average
Pace	100.9
Off Rating	119.6
Def Rating	108.4
Net Rating	+11.2
PPG	121.0
Opp PPG	109.0

Recent Results (L6):

Jan 5: L 97-124 vs CHO
Jan 4: L 105-108 @ PHO
Jan 2: W 131-94 @ GSW
Dec 31: W 124-95 vs POR
Dec 29: W 140-129 vs ATL
Dec 28: W 129-104 vs PHI

Key Stats:

eFG%: 56.4% (L6) Opp eFG%: 53.9%
TOV%: 10.9% Opp TOV%: 17.1% (elite turnover creation)
ORB%: 19.6%
FT Rate: 0.212

Injuries/Out:

Isaiah Hartenstein (Out - calf)
Alex Caruso (Out - back)
Jaylin Williams (Out - heel)
Nikola Topic (Out - groin)
Ousmane Dieng (Out - calf)

Four Factors Comparison (L6)

Factor	Utah	OKC	Edge
eFG%	57.6%	56.4%	UTA +1.2%
TOV%	14.1%	10.9%	OKC (lower better)
ORB%	23.8%	19.6%	UTA +4.2%
FT Rate	0.222	0.212	Even
Opp eFG%	57.6%	53.9%	OKC +3.7%
Opp TOV%	11.4%	17.1%	OKC +5.7%

Analysis: Oklahoma City’s elite defense is the separator. They force 5.7% more turnovers and hold opponents to 3.7% lower eFG%. Utah’s offensive efficiency (57.6% eFG) evaporates against OKC’s pressure - in two prior meetings, Utah shot poorly and turned it over repeatedly.

Head-to-Head (Season Series: OKC 2-0)

Date	Location	Score	Margin
Nov 21	@ Utah	OKC 144-112	OKC +32
Dec 7	@ Utah	OKC 131-101	OKC +30

Average Margin: OKC +31 points

Pattern: OKC has dominated at the Delta Center. At Paycom Center, expect even stronger defensive intensity.

Situational Analysis

Rest Performance

Utah by Rest Days:

Rest	Record	PPG	Opp PPG
0 days	4-3	124.9	126.7
1 day	0-16	110.3	126.1
2+ days	7-4	129.0	130.4

OKC by Rest Days:

Rest	Record	PPG	Opp PPG
0 days	3-4	114.4	115.6
1 day	18-2	122.6	106.2
2+ days	8-1	123.1	102.9

Analysis: Both teams have 2 days rest. OKC is 8-1 in this scenario (holding opponents to 102.9 PPG). Utah is 7-4, but their 0-16 on 1-day rest shows fundamental issues beyond scheduling.

Home/Away Splits

Utah Road: 4-12, 111.7 PPG, 124.1 Opp PPG (Off Rtg: 110.7, Def Rtg: 122.9)
OKC Home: 17-3, 121.3 PPG, 106.8 Opp PPG (Off Rtg: 119.8, Def Rtg: 105.5)

Net Rating Differential: OKC (+14.3) vs Utah (-12.2) = 26.5 point advantage for OKC

Schedule Density

OKC: 3-in-4 nights, 4-in-6 nights (slight fatigue factor)
Utah: No schedule flags

Common Opponents Analysis

Teams have played 14 common opponents.

Team	Record	PPG	Opp PPG
Utah	8-16	120.5	126.3
OKC	24-7	119.1	107.8

Differential: Against the same opponents, OKC’s defense allows 18.5 fewer PPG than Utah while scoring nearly the same. This is a massive quality gap.

Scoring Trends (Last 10 Games)

Utah: Declining (-8.7%)

First 5: 126.6 PPG
Last 5: 115.6 PPG
Change: -11.0 PPG

OKC: Improving (+5.3%)

First 5: 113.4 PPG
Last 5: 119.4 PPG
Change: +6.0 PPG

Analysis: Utah’s offense has cratered while OKC’s is trending up (despite the Charlotte loss).

Market Analysis

Current Lines

Spread: OKC -17.5 to -18.5
Total: 241.5 to 242.5
Moneyline: OKC -1293 / Utah +747

Fair Value Calculations

Spread Analysis: Using L6 net rating differential: OKC +11.2 vs Utah -7.1 = 18.3 points Adjusted for home court (+3 OKC) = 21.3 points Adjusted for H2H dominance (+31 avg margin) = suggests 22-24 point fair value

Total Analysis: Combined L6 pace: 100.2 possessions OKC home Off Rtg: 119.8 | Utah road Def Rtg: 122.9 Utah road Off Rtg: 110.7 | OKC home Def Rtg: 105.5 Projected: OKC ~121, Utah ~108 = 229 total

Sharp Angles

Why the Under (241.5) Has Value

OKC’s Elite Home Defense: 105.5 Def Rating at home, holding opponents to 106.8 PPG
H2H Pattern: Prior games totaled 256 and 232 (avg 244), but both were at Utah where pace is faster
Utah’s Road Offense Collapses: 111.7 PPG on road vs 126.3 at home
OKC Controls Pace: Thunder dictate tempo and will slow things down with lead
Garbage Time Risk: If OKC leads big, bench units may depress scoring

Why OKC -17.5 Is Playable

Bounce-Back Narrative: Elite teams respond after embarrassing losses
H2H Dominance: +31 average margin in two prior meetings
Home Court: 17-3 record, +14.3 net rating at Paycom Center
Jazz in Spiral: 4-game losing streak, 8 losses in last 10
Depth Advantage: OKC’s bench far superior despite injuries

Caution Flags

Large Spread Variance: 17.5+ point spreads historically cover at ~50%
OKC Schedule Density: 3-in-4, potential fatigue
Letdown Risk: After embarrassing Charlotte loss, team focus unknown
SGA Usage: May rest in blowout, limiting margin

Betting Recommendations

Primary Play: UNDER 241.5 (-110)

Edge: ~4-5% | Confidence: Medium-High

Utah’s road offense (110.7 Off Rtg) meets OKC’s home defense (105.5)
Prior meetings at faster pace still only averaged 244 total
Control game with early Thunder lead reduces possessions
Fair value projection: 229

Secondary Play: OKC -17.5 (-110)

Edge: ~3% | Confidence: Medium

Fair value suggests 21-24 point spread
Bounce-back game after embarrassment
Season series margins: +32, +30
Risk: Garbage time scoring, early rest for starters

Value Lean: OKC 1H Spread (if available ~-9.5)

Thunder typically jump on inferior opponents early
Jazz defensive issues manifest immediately
Avoid full game variance from garbage time

Final Projections

Metric	Utah	OKC
Projected Score	108	127
Win Probability	5%	95%
ATS Probability	40%	60%
Over/Under	235 projected	Under

Summary

This is a massive mismatch between the league’s best team at home against one of the worst road teams. OKC’s defensive identity (forcing turnovers, limiting efficient looks) has dominated Utah twice already by an average of 31 points. The Thunder are coming off an embarrassing loss and will be motivated.

The sharper play is the Under 241.5, as Utah’s road offense craters and OKC’s home defense suffocates. The spread is justified but carries typical large-spread variance risk.

Report generated: January 7, 2026 Data sources: MCP Stats Server, ESPN, Action Network, Sports Chat Place