Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers

January 7, 2026 | 7:00 PM ET | Xfinity Mobile Arena

Key Information

CRITICAL SCHEDULE FACTOR: Washington played Orlando on January 6 (won 120-112), making this a BACK-TO-BACK for the Wizards. Washington is 0-5 on zero days rest this season, averaging only 108.2 PPG while allowing 118.4 PPG. This is the single most important factor in this game.

76ers Home Struggles: Philadelphia is just 9-9 at home despite having a loaded roster. They just suffered an embarrassing overtime home loss to a Denver team missing Jokic and their entire starting lineup (125-124).

Wizards Recent Form: Despite their 9-25 record, WAS has won 5 of their last 7 games and carries a +0.8 net rating over their L6 (better than PHI’s -0.9). CJ McCollum dropped 27 points against Orlando last night.

76ers Road Trip Success: Philadelphia closed a 5-game road trip with 3 straight wins (at MEM, at DAL, at NYK), but came home and immediately stumbled against Denver.

Betting Lines

Team Profiles

Washington Wizards (9-25, 4-13 Away)

Rest Performance:

• 0 days rest: 0-5 (108.2 ppg, 118.4 opp ppg)
• 1 day rest: 6-14 (113.8 ppg, 126.6 opp ppg)
• 2+ days rest: 3-5 (115.0 ppg, 121.6 opp ppg)

Last 6 Games:

Philadelphia 76ers (19-15, 9-8 Home)

Rest Performance:

• 0 days rest: 4-2 (121.3 ppg, 117.7 opp ppg)
• 1 day rest: 8-8 (118.3 ppg, 118.6 opp ppg)
• 2+ days rest: 6-5 (113.5 ppg, 112.5 opp ppg)

Last 6 Games:

Head-to-Head

Season Series: PHI leads 2-0

PHI has won both meetings but the first went to overtime. In the December meeting at this venue, Philadelphia won comfortably by 19.

Injury Report

Washington Wizards

Philadelphia 76ers

Situational Analysis

Back-to-Back Devastation for Washington

This is the dominant factor. Washington:

• Played last night (Jan 6 vs ORL, W 120-112)
• Is 0-5 on zero rest this season
• Averages 10.2 fewer PPG on B2B (108.2 vs 118.4 with rest)
• Traveling to Philadelphia after a home game

The Wizards’ B2B performance this season is catastrophic. Their offense completely disappears (108.2 PPG) while their already-poor defense gets worse (118.4 opp PPG).

76ers Home Letdown Spot

Philadelphia:

• Just returned from a successful 3-1 road trip
• Lost embarrassingly to a depleted Denver team at home
• Big 3 only 2-4 when all playing together
• Home record (9-9) doesn’t inspire confidence

This is a classic letdown spot for Philly after emotional road wins, but they’re also coming off a loss which should provide motivation.

Pace Mismatch

• WAS L6 Pace: 102.3
• PHI L6 Pace: 99.4
• Differential: +2.9 (WAS plays faster)

Philly tends to control pace at home. Expect this game closer to 99-100 possessions.

Fair Price Calculation

Spread Analysis

Base Projection Inputs:

• PHI home offensive efficiency: 114.6
• PHI home defensive efficiency: 115.5
• WAS away offensive efficiency: 110.5
• WAS away defensive efficiency: 122.3
• Expected pace: ~100 possessions

B2B Adjustment for WAS:

• Historical WAS B2B: -10.2 PPG differential
• Apply -5 pts to WAS expected score (conservative estimate)

Home Court: ~3 points built into PHI offensive/defensive splits

Raw Calculation:

• PHI Expected: (114.6 + 122.3) / 2 * 1.00 = 118.5
• WAS Expected: (110.5 + 115.5) / 2 * 1.00 = 113.0
• Raw Margin: PHI -5.5
• B2B Adjustment: +5 pts to PHI margin
• Adjusted Margin: PHI -10.5

Fair Spread: PHI -10.5

Market at -12.5 implies ~2 points of edge on WAS +12.5.

Total Analysis

Expected Combined Score:

• PHI at home: 115.5 PPG (season)
• WAS on B2B: 108.2 PPG (season)
• Combined raw: 223.7

Pace Adjustment:

• Game pace likely ~99 (PHI controls at home)
• Slight uptick for PHI offensive push

L6 Context:

• PHI L6 PPG: 120.3

  Opp PPG: 121.0 (241.3 combined)

• WAS L6 PPG: 117.2

  Opp PPG: 116.2 (233.4 combined)

B2B Impact: Historically drives totals DOWN as fatigued team struggles

Fair Total: 227-230

Market at 234.5 implies 4.5-7.5 points of edge on UNDER.

Edge Identification

Primary Play: UNDER 234.5

Rationale:

1. WAS on B2B historically produces 108.2 PPG (vs 234.5/2 = 117.25 implied)
2. PHI home games average 232 combined (under market)
3. PHI plays slower pace (99.4) which limits possessions
4. WAS B2B fatigue suppresses both teams’ scoring
5. 6.5-point edge is substantial

Risk Factors:

• PHI shootout potential if Maxey gets hot
• Garbage time scoring if blowout

Secondary Play: WAS +12.5

Rationale:

1. 12.5 is a large spread even for this talent differential
2. WAS has covered as road dogs recently (beat MIL on road)
3. Season series shows competitive games (first was OT)
4. PHI home struggles (9-9) and letdown potential
5. 2-point edge on fair value

Risk Factors:

• WAS 0-5 on B2B could mean total collapse
• PHI motivated after embarrassing Denver loss
• Embiid availability could push blowout

Market Execution Plan

Pre-Game

1. UNDER 234.5 at -110 (1.5 units)
   • Shop for 235 or better if available
   • Key number: 234 (monitor for steam)
2. WAS +12.5 at -110 (1 unit)
   • Shop for +13 if available
   • May live bet if line moves to +14

Live Betting Triggers

• ADD to UNDER if total goes to 237+
• ADD to WAS + if spread hits 15+
• HEDGE PHI if WAS leads at half (unlikely but profitable)

Avoid

• WAS ML (+455): Risk/reward not favorable given B2B history
• 1H bets: B2B fatigue often shows more in 2H
• Alt spreads: Standard line offers best value

Final Recommendations

Summary

The market is pricing this game as a routine 12+ point blowout, but the B2B factor creates significant UNDER value. Washington’s 0-5 record and 108.2 PPG on zero rest is the key data point driving our projections.

The spread play on Washington is more speculative - the Wizards could absolutely collapse on the second night of a B2B. However, 12.5 points is a lot of margin, and Philadelphia’s home struggles suggest they may not run away with this one.

Primary edge is UNDER. This game projects closer to 228 than 235.

Report Generated: January 7, 2026 Data Sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, NBA.com, MCP Box Score Database