ATL @ DEN Betting Analysis
Friday, January 9, 2026 | Ball Arena, Denver, CO | 9:00 PM ET
Key Information
CRITICAL GAME-CHANGING FACTORS
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TRAE YOUNG TRADED TO WIZARDS (Jan 7-8): Atlanta’s franchise star was dealt to Washington for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. This is the Hawks’ FIRST game post-trade. McCollum and Kispert are listed OUT (haven’t joined team yet). Hawks are in massive roster flux.
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NIKOLA JOKIC OUT (hyperextended knee): The 3x MVP has been out since Dec 29 and will miss at least 4 weeks. Denver is 3-3 without him. This is their biggest loss, but Jamal Murray has stepped up monumentally.
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JAMAL MURRAY PLAYING AT MVP LEVEL: Back-to-back games with 20+ pts and 15+ assists. Career-high 17 assists vs. Celtics (Jan 7). Averaging 26 pts, 11.5 ast, 6.8 reb in 4 games without Jokic.
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DENVER JUST BEAT BOSTON WITHOUT JOKIC: Nuggets won 114-110 at TD Garden on Jan 7, showing they can compete at the highest level minus their star.
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ALTITUDE FACTOR: Denver’s home court advantage at 5,280 feet is significant. The Hawks just finished a road trip to Toronto and are on extended travel.
Matchup Overview
| Team | Record | L6 | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Net | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 18-21 | 3-3 | 111.4 | 110.1 | +1.3 | 104.8 |
| DEN | 25-12 | 3-3 | 118.6 | 124.1 | -5.5 | 95.6 |
Spread: DEN -1.5 to -2
Total: 235.5-237.5
Moneyline: DEN -125 / ATL +105
Situation Analysis
Atlanta Hawks
- Post-Trade Chaos: First game after trading their best player and offensive engine
- Roster Uncertainty: McCollum/Kispert OUT (new acquisitions not available)
- Travel: Coming off Toronto back-to-back losses (Jan 3 & 5), played at home Jan 7
- Rest: 1 day rest (played Jan 7 vs NOP - W 117-100)
- Key Players Available: Jalen Johnson (23.7 PPG leader), Dyson Daniels (DPOY candidate), Risacher
Denver Nuggets
- Without Jokic (4th straight game): Adjusting to non-Jokic offense
- Murray Carrying Load: Career-best playmaking stretch
- End of Road Trip: Final game of 7-game road trip - beat Celtics Jan 7
- Schedule Density: 4 games in 6 days (schedule flag)
- Rest: 1 day rest
- Home Record: 10-5 (126.1 PPG at home!)
Statistical Breakdown
Four Factors L6
| Factor | ATL Off | ATL Def | DEN Off | DEN Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | .548 | .534 | .558 | .558 |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 10.6% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 22.0% | 19.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | .144 | .192 | .229 | .187 |
Key Insight: Denver’s DRB% of just 65.7% is ALARMING without Jokic - they’re getting killed on the defensive glass. Atlanta’s 21.3% ORB% could exploit this.
Home/Away Splits
| Team | Home PPG | Home Opp PPG | Away PPG | Away Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 117.4 | 119.8 | 119.3 | 119.0 |
| DEN | 126.1 | 118.1 | 122.7 | 118.0 |
Denver is +8 PPG at home vs away. The altitude effect is real.
Rest Performance
| Team | 1 Day Rest Record | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 12-11 | 120.1 | 117.7 |
| DEN | 15-8 | 121.9 | 117.0 |
Both on 1-day rest. Denver significantly better in this spot.
Recent Form & Trends
ATL Last 6 Games (3-3)
| Date | Opp | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7 | NOP (H) | W | 117-100 |
| Jan 5 | @TOR | L | 100-118 |
| Jan 3 | @TOR | L | 117-134 |
| Jan 2 | @NYK | W | 111-99 |
| Dec 31 | MIN (H) | W | 126-102 |
| Dec 29 | @OKC | L | 129-140 |
Note: Trae Young played in all these games. This is the first WITHOUT him.
DEN Last 6 Games (3-3) - All WITHOUT Jokic
| Date | Opp | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7 | @BOS | W | 114-110 |
| Jan 5 | @PHI | W | 125-124 (OT) |
| Jan 4 | @BRK | L | 115-127 |
| Jan 2 | @CLE | L | 108-113 |
| Dec 31 | @TOR | W | 106-103 |
| Dec 29 | @MIA | L | 123-147 |
Pattern: Denver is 3-3 without Jokic but beating quality opponents (BOS, PHI).
Head-to-Head
Season Series: DEN leads 1-0
| Date | Visitor | Home | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5 | DEN | ATL | 134-133 (DEN wins) |
That game featured Jokic (40 pts) AND Trae Young. Neither plays tonight.
Historical Dominance
Denver has won 9 of last 10 meetings vs Atlanta.
Injury Report
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | TRADED | Franchise-altering |
| CJ McCollum | OUT (new acquisition) | Not available yet |
| Corey Kispert | OUT (new acquisition) | Not available yet |
| Kobe Bufkin | OUT (shoulder) | Season |
| Clint Capela | OUT (hand) | Through April |
| Kristaps Porzingis | OUT (illness) | Multi-week testing |
| Onyeka Okongwu | OUT (illness) | Game-time |
Devastating injury/trade list for Atlanta
Denver Nuggets
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | OUT (knee) | MVP-level loss, ~late Jan return |
| Aaron Gordon | PROBABLE | Back from hamstring |
| Christian Braun | PROBABLE | Back from ankle |
| Jamal Murray | Available | Healthy and dominant |
| Spencer Jones | GTD (foot) | Depth piece |
Betting Analysis
Fair Value Assessment
Power Rating Adjustment:
- Base spread would favor DEN -4 to -5 at home with altitude
- Jokic out: +4 to +5 points for ATL
- Trae Young traded: +3 to +4 points for DEN
- Gordon/Braun returning: +1 to +1.5 for DEN
- Roster chaos factor: +1 to +2 for DEN
Fair Line: DEN -1.5 to -2.5
Current market: DEN -1.5 to -2
Total Analysis
Pace Mismatch: ATL plays fast (104.8), DEN plays slow (95.6) - 9.2 pace differential
- Without Trae, ATL’s pace should drop
- Denver home games average 244.2 combined (126.1 + 118.1)
- But without Jokic, offense drops 5-8 PPG
- ATL without Trae likely loses 8-10 PPG of creation
Fair Total: 228-232
Market at 235.5-237.5 appears HIGH.
Situational Edges
Factors Favoring Denver
- Home court + altitude (Hawks just traveled)
- Murray playing at career-best level
- Gordon and Braun returning from injuries
- ATL in complete roster disarray post-trade
- Historical H2H dominance (9-1 last 10)
- Better rest performance metrics
Factors Favoring Atlanta
- Denver’s defensive rebounding catastrophic without Jokic (65.7% DRB%)
- Jalen Johnson as #1 option may thrive with more touches
- Denver on 4-in-6 schedule density
- Market may overreact to Trae trade (his efficiency was declining)
- Dyson Daniels elite perimeter defense vs Murray
Recommended Plays
Primary Plays
UNDER 235.5 (-110)
- Fair total: ~230
- ATL loses their primary offensive creator (Trae)
- DEN plays slowest pace in league (95.6)
- Both teams on 1-day rest = lower energy
- Denver D improving in L5 (120.7 DRTG vs BOS)
- Edge: ~2.5-3 points
DENVER -1.5 (-110)
- Fair line: DEN -2 to -2.5
- Small edge on spread but situational factors overwhelmingly favor DEN
- ATL in complete transition mode
- Murray’s playmaking + home court
Secondary Plays
DENVER ML (-125)
- If uncomfortable laying points with a Jokic-less team
- Still 3-3 without him against good competition
- Win probability: ~54-56%
1H UNDER
- Both teams may start slow on B2B
- Feel-out period for post-trade Hawks
Player Props to Monitor
Jamal Murray
- O/U Assists likely 9.5-10.5 (career-high 17 vs BOS)
- OVER looks compelling given usage spike
- Points + Assists combo: OVER
Jalen Johnson
- Now THE man in Atlanta
- Usage should spike significantly
- Points O/U: Look for value on OVER
Dyson Daniels
- DPOY candidate will likely guard Murray
- Steals prop: OVER (2.4 SPG leader)
Risk Assessment
Low Confidence Factors:
- First post-trade game is inherently unpredictable
- Atlanta could rally around adversity (emotional play)
- Denver fatigue after 7-game road trip
- Gordon/Braun may be rusty returning from injury
High Confidence Factors:
- Pace/total mismatch strongly supports UNDER
- Denver home court + altitude is real
- Murray’s form is undeniable
- Atlanta’s talent deficit is severe tonight
Final Recommendations
| Play | Line | Confidence | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNDER 235.5 | -110 | HIGH | 1.5 |
| DEN -1.5 | -110 | MEDIUM | 1.0 |
| Jamal Murray O10.5 Ast | +120* | MEDIUM | 0.5 |
*Check live lines for Murray assists prop
Game Projection: DEN 116, ATL 108
Summary
This is a fascinating spot with massive situational factors on both sides. The Trae Young trade completely changes Atlanta’s identity overnight, while Denver continues to prove they can survive without Jokic. The UNDER is the highest-conviction play given the pace mismatch and offensive disruption to both teams. Denver should win at home, but the margin is tighter than usual given their own absences.
Bet responsibly. These are opinions, not guarantees.