Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers
January 9, 2026 | 10:00 PM ET | Moda Center, Portland OR
Key Information
Context: This is the third of four meetings this season. Portland won 103-102 just two days ago (Jan 7) - their first win against Houston after getting demolished 140-116 in November.
Critical Storylines:
- Rockets’ Scoring Drought: Houston’s offense has fallen off a cliff - down 6.2 PPG over their last 10 games (116.6 → 110.4). They’ve scored 100-104 in three straight road games.
- Portland’s Hot Streak: Blazers are 5-1 L6 with improving scoring (+4.4 PPG trend). Just beat HOU without Henderson, Holiday still questionable.
- Sengun OUT for Houston: The Rockets’ hub of their offense is sidelined ~2 weeks with ankle injury. They looked lost offensively in Wednesday’s loss (41.4% eFG, 104.4 ORtg).
- Portland’s Injury MAS*H Unit: Scoot Henderson (hamstring), Jrue Holiday (calf), Damian Lillard (Achilles), Jerami Grant (Achilles), Thybulle (thumb surgery) all OUT. Yet they keep winning.
Injury Report
Houston Rockets
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun | OUT (Ankle, ~2 weeks) | MASSIVE - Team’s offensive engine, best playmaking big |
| Fred VanVleet | OUT (Season - ACL) | Already adjusted |
| Isaiah Crawford | Day-to-Day (Illness) | Minimal rotation impact |
Portland Trail Blazers
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | OUT (Season - Achilles) | Already adjusted |
| Scoot Henderson | OUT (Hamstring, re-eval 2 weeks) | Major - Starting PG, playmaking |
| Jrue Holiday | OUT (Calf strain) | Major - Vet leadership, defense |
| Jerami Grant | OUT (Achilles) | Major - Scoring option |
| Matisse Thybulle | OUT (Thumb surgery) | Defensive specialist |
| Blake Wesley | OUT (Foot fracture) | Depth piece |
Net Impact: Both teams severely depleted, but Houston losing Sengun is a bigger single-player blow. Portland has adjusted to playing without their injured pieces over multiple weeks.
Statistical Profile
Season Records
| Team | Record | L6 | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 22-12 | 4-2 | 11-2 H / 11-10 A |
| Portland | 18-20 | 5-1 | 9-9 H / 9-11 A |
L6 Metrics Comparison
| Metric | Houston | Portland | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 95.7 | 99.1 | POR +3.4 |
| Off Rating | 116.9 | 117.8 | POR +0.9 |
| Def Rating | 108.8 | 115.1 | HOU -6.3 |
| Net Rating | +8.1 | +2.7 | HOU +5.4 |
| PPG | 111.5 | 116.2 | POR +4.7 |
| Opp PPG | 104.2 | 114.0 | HOU -9.8 |
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.9% | Even |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 12.7% | POR |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 30.6% | HOU +7.2 |
| FT Rate | .174 | .201 | POR |
Rest & Schedule
| Team | Rest Days | Schedule Density (7 days) | B2B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 2 days | 3 games | No |
| Portland | 2 days | 3 games | No |
Rest Performance
| Team | 0 Days | 1 Day | 2+ Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 0-3 (126.7 opp PPG) | 14-5 | 8-3 |
| Portland | 5-2 | 11-12 | 2-5 (129.7 opp PPG) |
Key Insight: Portland is actually WORSE on 2+ days rest (2-5, allowing 129.7 PPG), while Houston thrives (8-3). This contradicts the fatigue narrative.
Head-to-Head History
| Date | Location | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14 | Houston | HOU 140-116 | Rockets blowout |
| Jan 7 | Portland | POR 103-102 | Blazers squeaker, HOU shot 41.4% eFG |
Series: 1-1 this season
Jan 7 Game Analysis
- Houston struggled offensively without Sengun (104.4 ORtg, 41.4% eFG)
- Portland won despite only 50.6% eFG - won with FT rate and avoiding turnovers
- Houston’s 42.9% offensive rebounding rate couldn’t save them
- One-possession game that could have gone either way
Common Opponents Analysis
| Metric | Houston | Portland |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-11 | 17-16 |
| PPG | 117.2 | 116.4 |
| Opp PPG | 111.1 | 118.4 |
| Net | +6.1 | -2.0 |
Houston has been significantly better against shared opponents (+8.1 differential).
Betting Market Analysis
Current Lines (Action Network)
| Market | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -6.5 | HOU -6.5 |
| Total | O/U 220.5 | O/U 220 |
| Moneyline | HOU -254 / POR +207 |
Market Lean Analysis
The market has Houston as a moderate road favorite despite:
- Losing to Portland 48 hours ago
- Missing their best player (Sengun)
- Declining offensive trajectory
This suggests either:
- Market overcorrecting on Portland’s injury-depleted roster
- Respect for Houston’s superior overall metrics
- Regression expected from Portland’s hot streak
Four Factors Deep Dive
Houston (L6)
| Factor | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.4% (opp) |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 12.5% (forced) |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 80.7% (DRB) |
| FT Rate | .174 | .161 (opp) |
Strengths: Elite offensive rebounding, solid defense, don’t foul Weaknesses: Turnover-prone, low FT generation
Portland (L6)
| Factor | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.5% (opp) |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 10.9% (forced) |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 71.3% (DRB) |
| FT Rate | .201 | .189 (opp) |
Strengths: Efficient shooting, ball security, get to the line Weaknesses: Don’t force turnovers, give up offensive boards, leaky defense
Situational Edges
Houston
- Superior defense (6.3 rating better L6)
- Elite offensive rebounding (37.8% vs 30.6%)
- Better record vs common opponents
- 8-3 on 2+ days rest
- Better overall team (22-12 vs 18-20)
Portland
- Home court (9-9, neutral)
- Just beat Houston 2 days ago (confidence)
- Faster pace (99.1 vs 95.7) - controls tempo
- Hot streak (5-1 L6)
- Adjusted to injuries over time
- Get to the FT line more
Projection Model
Pace-Adjusted Scoring Projection
- Expected pace: ~97.5 (average of both)
- Houston projected ORtg: 112-115 (without Sengun, road regression)
- Portland projected ORtg: 114-116 (home, confidence from W)
- Houston projected DRtg: 111-114
- Portland projected DRtg: 116-118
Projected Score Range:
- Houston: 108-114
- Portland: 110-116
Model Lean: Portland +3 to -1 (essentially a toss-up)
Fair Price Assessment
Side
| Market | Fair Line | Current | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | POR +3.5 | POR +6.5 | +3 pts of value |
| ML | POR +145 | POR +207 | 62 cents of value |
Assessment: The market is overvaluing Houston. Without Sengun and fresh off a loss to this same team, laying 6.5 on the road is aggressive. Portland has value.
Total
| Metric | Analysis |
|---|---|
| Combined L6 PPG | 227.7 |
| Last meeting | 205 total |
| Pace projection | 97.5 (slower) |
| HOU scoring trend | Declining (-6.2 PPG) |
| POR defensive issues | Leaky (115.1 DRtg) |
Fair Total: 218-222 Current Line: 220 Assessment: Total is properly priced. Slight lean under given Houston’s offensive struggles without Sengun.
Recommended Plays
Primary Play: Portland +6.5 (-105)
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Rationale:
- 3+ points of line value vs fair price
- Home team that just proved they can beat HOU
- Houston missing Sengun is huge
- Portland has been playing through injuries all season
- Market overcorrecting on season record differential
Risk Factors:
- Houston’s defense is legitimately elite
- Portland 2-5 on 2+ days rest (concerning)
- Revenge spot for HOU
Secondary Play: Portland ML +207
Rating: 3/5 stars
Rationale:
- 62 cents of value vs fair price
- If you believe POR covers +6.5, they likely win outright
- Last game was 103-102 - these teams are evenly matched right now
Lean: Under 220 (-110)
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Rationale:
- Houston’s scoring has cratered (declining trend)
- Without Sengun, offensive flow disrupted
- Last game totaled 205
- Both teams on 2 days rest (typically lower scoring)
Risk Assessment
Confidence Level: MEDIUM
What Could Go Wrong:
- Houston’s defense dominates (they’re elite)
- Durant/Thompson take over scoring load
- Portland’s injuries finally catch up to them
- Rockets treat this as must-win after Wednesday’s loss
- Portland’s poor 2+ rest day record manifests
What Needs to Happen for POR:
- Shaedon Sharpe continues stellar play (he’s been the engine)
- Anfernee Simons provides secondary scoring
- Control pace above 98
- Win the FT battle
- Limit HOU second-chance points
Final Verdict
This line is too high for a road favorite who just lost to this team, is missing their best player, and faces a Portland squad that has found a way to win despite massive injury adversity.
The 6.5-point spread doesn’t reflect the reality that these teams split two very different games - a Houston blowout win when healthy, and a Portland squeaker when HOU was without Sengun. The current situation more closely mirrors the second game.
Best Bet: Portland +6.5 Sprinkle: Portland ML +207 Pass: Total (fairly priced)
Analysis generated: January 9, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, Action Network, Covers
REPORT_FILE: data/reports/HOU_at_POR.md