New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards
Friday, January 10, 2026 | 7:00 PM ET | Capital One Arena
Key Information
Game Context:
- The Pelicans enter on a brutal 9-game losing streak, their scoring declining sharply from 116.8 PPG to 107.2 PPG over the last 10 games
- Washington has won 3 of their last 6 including quality wins over Milwaukee and Brooklyn; Alex Sarr had a standout game vs Orlando with 120 pts allowed
- MAJOR NEWS: The Wizards reportedly acquired Trae Young from Atlanta - this could dramatically shift the matchup dynamics if he’s available
- New Orleans has significant injuries: Dejounte Murray (OUT - leg), Jose Alvarado (OUT - oblique), Herbert Jones (DTD - ankle), Saddiq Bey (OUT - hip), Trey Murphy III (Questionable - back)
Market Setup:
- Spread: NOP -2.5 (-105) / WAS +2.5 (-115)
- Total: 241.5 (o-115 / u-108)
- Moneyline: NOP -134 / WAS +114
- Line opened NOP -1, moved to NOP -2.5 indicating sharp money on Pelicans
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | NOP | WAS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season Record | 8-31 (.205) | 10-26 (.278) | WAS |
| L6 Record | 0-6 | 3-3 | WAS |
| L6 Net Rating | -12.5 | -5.4 | WAS (+7.1) |
| L6 Off Rating | 108.0 | 112.9 | WAS (+4.9) |
| L6 Def Rating | 120.5 | 118.3 | WAS (-2.2) |
| L6 Pace | 102.5 | 100.2 | NOP (+2.3) |
| L6 PPG | 110.2 | 113.2 | WAS |
| L6 Opp PPG | 123.2 | 118.5 | WAS |
Situational Analysis
Schedule & Rest
| Factor | NOP | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Rest Days | 2 | 2 |
| Back-to-Back | No | No |
| Schedule Density | Normal | Normal |
| Travel | @ATL (Jan 7) | @PHI (Jan 7) |
Rest Performance:
- NOP on 2+ days rest: 3-4 (114.7 PPG, 117.0 opp PPG) - their best split
- WAS on 2+ days rest: 3-5 (115.0 PPG, 121.6 opp PPG)
Both teams are rested. New Orleans performs significantly better with rest, but still under .500.
Home/Away Splits
| Team | Home Record | Away Record | Home ORtg | Away ORtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOP | 6-17 | 2-14 | 115.4 | 108.3 |
| WAS | 6-12 | 4-14 | 112.8 | 110.5 |
New Orleans is a dreadful 2-14 on the road with a 108.3 offensive rating. Washington is significantly better at home (6-12) than away (4-14).
Four Factors (L6)
| Factor | NOP | WAS | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.9% | WAS |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 14.9% | NOP |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 26.2% | Push |
| FT Rate | 0.165 | 0.196 | WAS |
Washington has been shooting markedly better (54.9% eFG vs 50.8%) and getting to the line more often. New Orleans’ only advantage is turnover avoidance, but their shooting struggles have reached critical levels.
Recent Form (Last 6 Games)
New Orleans Pelicans (0-6 L6)
| Date | Opp | Result | Pts | Opp Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7 | @ATL | L | 100 | 117 |
| Jan 6 | LAL | L | 103 | 111 |
| Jan 4 | @MIA | L | 106 | 125 |
| Jan 2 | POR | L | 109 | 122 |
| Dec 31 | @CHI | L | 118 | 134 |
| Dec 29 | NYK | L | 125 | 130 |
Trend: Scoring has declined from 125 (Dec 29) to 100 (Jan 7) - a 25-point collapse over 6 games. The Pelicans’ offense has cratered, posting a 92.0 ORtg in their most recent game.
Washington Wizards (3-3 L6)
| Date | Opp | Result | Pts | Opp Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7 | @PHI | L | 110 | 131 |
| Jan 6 | ORL | W | 120 | 112 |
| Jan 4 | MIN | L | 115 | 141 |
| Jan 2 | BRK | W | 119 | 99 |
| Dec 31 | @MIL | W | 114 | 113 |
| Dec 29 | PHO | L | 101 | 115 |
Trend: Inconsistent but showing flashes. Quality road win at Milwaukee, blowout home win vs Brooklyn. Got crushed by good teams (MIN, PHI) but competitive otherwise.
Injury Impact Assessment
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | OUT (leg) | Massive - lead guard, playmaker |
| Jose Alvarado | OUT (oblique) | Significant - backup PG, defensive pest |
| Herbert Jones | DTD (ankle) | Major - elite wing defender |
| Saddiq Bey | OUT (hip) | Moderate - rotation forward |
| Trey Murphy III | QUES (back) | Critical - leading scorer (21.3 PPG) |
Assessment: New Orleans is devastated by injuries. If Trey Murphy (their best healthy player) sits, this becomes essentially a G-League squad. The Pelicans have been relying heavily on Zion Williamson and rookie Jeremiah Fears.
Washington Wizards
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Kyshawn George | OUT (hip) | Minor - rotation wing |
| Cam Whitmore | OUT (?) | Minor - rotation forward |
Assessment: Washington is relatively healthy. If the Trae Young trade has been finalized, his availability is uncertain for this game.
Common Opponents Analysis
| Team | vs Common Opponents | PPG | Opp PPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOP | 7-20 | 115.9 | 123.3 |
| WAS | 6-19 | 111.2 | 123.1 |
Against 15 common opponents, the records are nearly identical (NOP 7-20 vs WAS 6-19). New Orleans scores more but allows similar points. The margin between these teams is razor thin.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
Offensive Rating Trend (L10)
| Team | First 5 Games | Last 5 Games | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOP | 114.0 | 104.6 | -9.4 |
| WAS | 114.8 | 113.8 | -1.0 |
New Orleans’ offense has collapsed - their offensive rating dropped nearly 10 points over their last 5 games. Washington has maintained stable production.
Scoring Trend (L10)
- NOP: DECLINING - 116.8 PPG (first 5) to 107.2 PPG (last 5) = -9.6 PPG
- WAS: STABLE - 115.4 PPG (first 5) to 115.6 PPG (last 5) = +0.2 PPG
Fair Price Calculation
Spread Analysis
L6 Net Rating Differential: WAS +7.1 points better per 100 possessions Home Court: +3 points for WAS Rest: Even Injuries: NOP significantly more impacted (-2 to -3 adjustment)
Raw Fair Line: Based on L6 performance, WAS should be favored by approximately 2-3 points Market Line: NOP -2.5
Fair Spread: WAS +1 to PICK
The market has NOP as 2.5-point favorites despite:
- 0-6 in L6 vs WAS’s 3-3
- Worse net rating by 7.1 points
- More significant injuries
- Dreadful road record (2-14)
Edge: WAS +2.5 shows 3.5-4.5 points of value
Total Analysis
Combined L6 PPG: 110.2 + 113.2 = 223.4 Combined L6 Opp PPG: 123.2 + 118.5 = 241.7 Pace Adjustment: Both teams around 101 possessions, neutral Defense Adjustment: Both teams playing poor defense, expect some points
Raw Fair Total: 234-238 points Market Total: 241.5
Edge: Slight UNDER lean (3-7 points of theoretical value), but both defenses are porous and pace could push it over.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Play: Washington Wizards +2.5 (-115)
Confidence: HIGH Reasoning:
- Market is overvaluing NOP’s “talent” despite 9-game losing streak
- WAS has been significantly better in L6 metrics (Net Rating +7.1)
- NOP’s road woes (2-14) in favorable spot for WAS home
- Pelicans’ injuries compound an already struggling offense
- Sharp money opened line at NOP -1, but fundamentals favor WAS
Secondary Play: Washington ML +114
Confidence: MEDIUM-HIGH Reasoning:
- If WAS covers +2.5, they’re likely winning outright
- Plus-money value on a team with better recent form
- Pelicans showing zero signs of life
Lean: UNDER 241.5 (-108)
Confidence: LOW-MEDIUM Reasoning:
- Combined L6 PPG only 223.4
- NOP’s scoring collapse (107.2 PPG in last 5)
- Pace slightly below league average for both
- However, both defenses leak points, creating variance
Props to Watch
- Alex Sarr Over Points: With NOP’s depleted frontcourt, Sarr should feast
- Zion Williamson Over Rebounds: May need to carry scoring load
- Game 1H Under: NOP often starts slow on road
Model Projection
Projected Score: WAS 114, NOP 111 Win Probability: WAS 54%, NOP 46% Projected Total: 225
| Market | Selection | Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | WAS +2.5 | +4 pts |
| Moneyline | WAS +114 | 8% edge |
| Total | Under 241.5 | +6 pts |
Risk Factors
Against WAS +2.5:
- If Trey Young debuts and plays well, completely changes outlook
- Zion Williamson could dominate WAS interior
- WAS just got blown out 110-131 by PHI
- Pelicans could snap losing streak eventually (regression)
Against UNDER:
- Both defenses are bottom-10 in the league
- Garbage time scoring in blowouts
- Neither team has incentive to slow pace
Summary
This line makes no sense. The Pelicans are on a 9-game losing streak with their offense in complete freefall (92.0 ORtg in their last game), missing most of their key players, and sporting a 2-14 road record. Meanwhile, Washington has won 3 of 6, beaten Milwaukee on the road, and has their core healthy.
The market is pricing NOP as favorites based on perceived talent differential, but talent doesn’t play when it’s injured. Washington offers significant value at +2.5 with upside on the moneyline.
BEST BET: WAS +2.5 (-115) VALUE PLAY: WAS ML +114
Analysis generated: January 9, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, Covers.com, Action Network, Team Reports