NYK @ PHO Betting Analysis
Friday, January 9, 2026 | 9:00 PM ET | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix
Key Information
From Preview Articles & Analysis:
- Suns on a heater at home: Phoenix has won 4 straight at home and is 12-5 at the Mortgage Matchup Center this season. They’re also 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.
- Knicks road struggles exposed: NYK is 8-9 on the road (7-9 per some sources) and just snapped a 4-game losing streak with a win over LAC. They’re 5-5 in their last 10.
- Injury impact significant: Josh Hart (ankle) OUT for Knicks - a major loss for hustle plays, rebounding, and intangibles. Landry Shamet (shoulder) also OUT. Suns missing Jalen Green (hamstring) and Grayson Allen (knee) has been managed well.
- Booker heating up: Devin Booker averaging 26.0 PPG over last 10 games with Suns finding offensive rhythm (116.5 PPG L10).
- Historical dominance: Knicks lead recent H2H 6-4, won last meeting 112-98 (April 2025), but this was at MSG.
Matchup Overview
| Team | Record | L6 | Home/Away | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK | 25-13 | 2-4 | 8-9 road | 1 day |
| PHO | 22-15 | 4-2 | 12-5 home | 1 day |
| Line: NYK -1.5 to -2.5 | Total: 230.5-231.5 | ML: NYK -125 / PHO +105 |
L6 Statistical Profile
New York Knicks (2-4 L6)
| Metric | Value | Rank Context |
|---|---|---|
| Off Rtg | 116.5 | Slightly above avg |
| Def Rtg | 123.0 | ALARMING - hemorrhaging points |
| Net Rtg | -6.6 | Negative trajectory |
| Pace | 99.2 | Moderate |
| eFG% | 53.3% | Solid |
| TOV% | 12.1% | Clean ball handling |
| ORB% | 25.0% | Average |
| FT Rate | 0.199 | Moderate |
Recent Results:
- Jan 7: W 123-111 vs LAC (snapped 4-game skid)
- Jan 5: L 90-121 @ DET (blowout)
- Jan 3: L 119-130 vs PHI
- Jan 2: L 99-111 vs ATL
- Dec 31: L 132-134 @ SAS
- Dec 29: W 130-125 @ NOP
Key Concern: Defense has completely collapsed - allowing 57.4% opp eFG% and 123.0 Def Rtg over L6. This is unsustainable and points to either fatigue, injury impact (Hart missing), or systemic issues.
Phoenix Suns (4-2 L6)
| Metric | Value | Rank Context |
|---|---|---|
| Off Rtg | 115.6 | Above average |
| Def Rtg | 108.1 | ELITE recent stretch |
| Net Rtg | +7.5 | Dominant |
| Pace | 97.9 | Slightly slower |
| eFG% | 53.3% | Identical to NYK |
| TOV% | 12.1% | Identical |
| ORB% | 29.2% | Strong glass work |
| FT Rate | 0.163 | Low - not hunting FTs |
Recent Results:
- Jan 7: W 117-98 @ MEM (dominant road W)
- Jan 5: L 97-100 @ HOU (close road loss)
- Jan 4: W 108-105 vs OKC (signature win)
- Jan 2: W 129-102 vs SAC (blowout)
- Dec 31: L 113-129 @ CLE
- Dec 29: W 115-101 @ WAS
Key Strength: Defense has tightened significantly - holding opponents to 51.8% eFG% and forcing 14.1% TOV%. This is a complete flip from their early-season defensive struggles.
L6 Comparison: Critical Differentials
| Metric | NYK | PHO | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off Rating | 116.5 | 115.6 | NYK +0.9 |
| Def Rating | 123.0 | 108.1 | PHO +14.9 |
| Net Rating | -6.6 | +7.5 | PHO +14.1 |
| PPG | 115.5 | 113.2 | NYK +2.3 |
| Opp PPG | 122.0 | 105.8 | PHO +16.2 |
The Story: Nearly identical offensive efficiency (0.9 difference), but a MASSIVE 14.9-point defensive rating gap in Phoenix’s favor. The Knicks are leaking points at an alarming rate while the Suns have locked in defensively.
Situational Analysis
Home/Away Splits
NYK Road Performance:
- Record: 8-9 (47.1%)
-
PPG: 117.4 Opp PPG: 118.1 -
Off Rtg: 118.6 Def Rtg: 119.3 - Net: -0.7
PHO Home Performance:
- Record: 12-5 (70.6%)
-
PPG: 116.6 Opp PPG: 109.1 -
Off Rtg: 118.6 Def Rtg: 110.9 - Net: +7.7
Home/Away Edge: Phoenix is a completely different team at home (+7.7 net vs +0.5 road). NYK’s road struggles (8-9, negative net) align with concerns.
Rest Performance
| Rest Days | NYK Record | PHO Record |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (B2B) | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| 1 day | 19-7 | 14-8 |
| 2+ days | 3-3 | 5-3 |
Both teams on 1 day rest - NYK historically elite (19-7), PHO solid (14-8). Neutral factor.
Schedule Density
- NYK: 3 games in 7 days - manageable
- PHO: 3 games in 7 days, flagged 4-in-6 recently - some fatigue possible but playing at home mitigates
Injury Report
NYK Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | OUT (Ankle) | HIGH - 9.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, hustle, intangibles |
| Landry Shamet | OUT (Shoulder) | Low - depth piece |
| Kevin McCullar Jr. | GTD | Minimal |
| Trey Jemison | OUT (G-League) | None |
Hart absence is critical. He’s their best perimeter defender, leading rebounder among guards, and sets the tone. Defense has cratered since he’s been out.
PHO Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green | OUT (Hamstring) | Moderate - but team adjusted |
| Grayson Allen | OUT (Knee) | Moderate - but Suns 4-2 without him |
| Jamaree Bouyea | OUT (Concussion) | Low |
| Koby Brea | OUT (G-League) | None |
Suns have been managing injuries well - 4-2 L6 despite absences. Devin Booker carrying the scoring load effectively.
Common Opponent Analysis
| Metric | NYK | PHO |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-3 | 14-5 |
| PPG | 123.1 | 117.9 |
| Opp PPG | 116.1 | 110.7 |
| Net | +7.0 | +7.2 |
Against 11 common opponents, nearly identical performance with slight edge to PHO on defense (5.4 fewer points allowed).
Pace & Scoring Projections
Expected Pace: ~98.5 (average of 99.2 and 97.9) Possessions: ~98-99 per team
Scoring Projection Models
Model 1: L6 Efficiency
- NYK: 98.5 poss × 1.165 ORtg = 114.8 pts
- PHO: 98.5 poss × 1.156 ORtg = 113.9 pts
- Projected Total: 228.7
Model 2: Home/Away Adjusted
- NYK (road): 98.5 × 1.186 = 116.8 pts
- PHO (home): 98.5 × 1.186 = 116.8 pts
- Projected Total: 233.6
Model 3: Recent Form Weighted
- NYK L6 PPG: 115.5 (road adjustment -2.1) = 113.4
- PHO L6 PPG: 113.2 (home boost +3.4) = 116.6
- Projected Total: 230.0
Composite Projection: 230.8 points (essentially on the number)
Betting Analysis
Spread: NYK -1.5 to -2.5
Case for PHO +2.5:
- 12-5 at home with +7.7 net rating
- L6 net rating advantage of +14.1
- Defensive improvement dramatic (108.1 Def Rtg L6)
- NYK missing Josh Hart (defensive anchor)
- NYK road record mediocre (8-9)
- 4-game home win streak, confident at Mortgage Matchup Center
- Booker in rhythm (26.0 PPG L10)
Case for NYK -2.5:
- Better overall record (25-13 vs 22-15)
- Elite on 1-day rest (19-7)
- Won last H2H 112-98
- Brunson elite (29.1 PPG season)
- Just snapped losing streak with convincing LAC win
- Better offensive talent on paper
Verdict: The line feels backwards. PHO should be small favorites at home given recent form. PHO +2.5 is the sharp side.
Total: 230.5-231.5
Over Factors:
- Both teams scoring 113+ L6
- NYK’s defense leaking badly (123.0 Def Rtg)
- Combined 228.7+ in multiple projection models
- NYK-PHI went 249, NYK-SAS went 266 recently
Under Factors:
- PHO defense tightened (108.1 Def Rtg L6)
- PHO’s pace slower (97.9)
- Projection models averaging 230.8
- PHO limiting opponents to 105.8 PPG L6
Verdict: This is a true toss-up. NYK’s defensive collapse vs PHO’s defensive improvement creates uncertainty. Slight lean UNDER 231.5 due to Phoenix’s home defense and slower pace.
Moneyline: NYK -125 / PHO +105
PHO +105 offers value given:
- Home-court advantage (12-5, 70.6%)
- Superior L6 form (4-2 vs 2-4)
- +14.1 net rating differential L6
- Injuries favor PHO (Hart > combined Suns injuries)
Fair Odds & Edge Calculation
Power Rating Analysis:
- NYK neutral: ~+3.5 pts vs average team
- PHO neutral: ~+2.0 pts vs average team
- Home court: +3.0 pts to PHO
- L6 form adjustment: +2.0 pts to PHO
- Injury adjustment: +1.5 pts to PHO (Hart out)
Fair Line: PHO -1.5 (not NYK -2.5)
| Market | Current | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NYK -2.5 | PHO -1.5 | PHO +2.5 = 4 pts value |
| Total | 231 | 230.5 | Minimal |
| ML NYK | -125 | -105 | 20 cent edge |
| ML PHO | +105 | -115 | PHO +105 = 5-6% edge |
Recommended Plays
Primary Play
PHO +2.5 (-110) | 2.5 units | Edge: ~4 points
- Rationale: Market hasn’t adjusted to NYK’s defensive collapse and PHO’s home dominance
Secondary Play
PHO ML +105 | 1.5 units | Edge: ~5%
- Rationale: Plus money on home team with better recent form is value
Total Lean
Under 231.5 (-110) | 0.5 units | Edge: ~1 point
- Rationale: PHO’s defense + slower pace should keep this closer to 228-230
Player Props to Monitor
- Devin Booker Over 25.5 pts - Carrying scoring load, averaging 26.0 L10
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 10.5 reb - NYK needs him on the glass without Hart
- Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 assists - Will need to facilitate more with reduced supporting cast
Market Strategy
Entry Points:
- PHO +2.5 or better: Full position
- PHO +1.5: Half position
- PHO PK or -1: Small position
Key Number: 3 - If line moves to NYK -3, PHO becomes even more attractive
Steam Watch: Sharp money likely on PHO. Watch for reverse line movement (line moving toward NYK despite PHO money).
Live Betting Approach:
- If NYK jumps ahead early, look to buy PHO at +5 or better
- Suns typically strong in 3rd quarters at home
Summary
This line is mispriced. The market is respecting NYK’s overall record (25-13) and historical H2H dominance, but ignoring:
- NYK’s 4-game losing streak before LAC (2-4 L6)
- Catastrophic defensive regression (123.0 Def Rtg L6)
- Josh Hart’s absence (major impact)
- PHO’s home dominance (12-5, +7.7 net)
- PHO’s defensive transformation (108.1 Def Rtg L6)
Phoenix at +2.5 with plus-money ML is the sharp side of this game.
Analysis generated: January 9, 2026 Data sources: Basketball Reference, NBA.com, ESPN, Action Network, Covers.com