OKC Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
January 9, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET | FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Key Information
Critical Context:
- Thunder’s 15-game win streak vs Grizzlies - OKC has dominated this matchup for nearly two years, winning by an average of 13+ points
- Memphis injury crisis deepens - Ja Morant (calf), Zach Edey (ankle), Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe), Brandon Clarke (calf), and Ty Jerome (calf) ALL OUT; roster instability has forced 12+ different starting lineups this season
- OKC coming off needed OT win - SGA dropped 46 points to escape Utah; Thunder (7-6 L13) have shown vulnerability after 24-1 start
- Grizzlies on back-to-back - Memphis lost to Phoenix 117-98 last night in a listless performance, committing 18 turnovers
- Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. carrying massive load - With Morant out, both are logging 35+ minutes nightly against increased defensive pressure
Matchup Overview
| Team | Record | L6 Record | L6 Net Rating | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 31-7 | 4-2 | +7.6 | 1 day |
| MEM | 16-21 | 1-5 | -6.2 | 0 days (B2B) |
Venue: FedExForum (Memphis home: 8-10, 113.7 ORtg / 112.4 DRtg)
Statistical Comparison (L6)
| Metric | OKC | MEM | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 102.1 | 104.4 | MEM +2.3 |
| Offensive Rating | 116.3 | 107.8 | OKC +8.5 |
| Defensive Rating | 108.7 | 113.9 | OKC +5.2 |
| Net Rating | +7.6 | -6.2 | OKC +13.8 |
| PPG | 121.0 | 114.5 | OKC +6.5 |
| Opp PPG | 112.5 | 120.8 | OKC +8.3 |
Four Factors (L6)
| Factor | OKC Off | OKC Def | MEM Off | MEM Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 53.7% | 53.3% | 51.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 13.7% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 18.7% | 28.6% | 25.8% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 0.232 | 0.195 | 0.160 | 0.234 |
Analysis: OKC’s elite turnover differential (+6%) is the most significant edge. Thunder force turnovers at 16.2% while protecting the ball at 10.2%. Memphis has been turnover-prone (13.7%) with a depleted backcourt. The Grizzlies’ offensive rebounding (25.8%) is their lone statistical advantage.
Injury Report
OKC Thunder (6 players listed)
| Player | Position | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Topic | G | OUT (Groin) | Low (rookie, limited role) |
| Thomas Sorber | C | OUT (Season - Knee) | Low |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | C | DAY-TO-DAY (Calf) | HIGH - Key rim protector, rebounder |
| Alex Caruso | G | DAY-TO-DAY (Back) | HIGH - Elite defender, playmaker |
| Jaylin Williams | F | DAY-TO-DAY (Heel) | Medium - Rotation big |
| Ousmane Dieng | F | DAY-TO-DAY (Calf) | Low |
Memphis Grizzlies (8+ players listed)
| Player | Position | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant | G | OUT (Calf) | CRITICAL - Franchise player, 23.5 PPG |
| Zach Edey | C | OUT (Ankle) | CRITICAL - Starting center, rim protection |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | G | OUT (Toe) | HIGH - Primary backup PG |
| Brandon Clarke | F | OUT (Calf) | HIGH - Key rotation big |
| Ty Jerome | G | OUT (Calf) | HIGH - Floor general, playmaking |
| Vince Williams Jr. | G | DAY-TO-DAY (Ankle) | Medium |
| Cedric Coward | F | DAY-TO-DAY (Ankle) | Medium - Rookie has been solid |
Injury Edge: OKC +3 (significant) - Memphis missing their two best players plus 4 rotation pieces. OKC’s injuries are concerning but their stars (SGA, Chet, J-Will) are available.
Head-to-Head (Season Series: OKC 2-0)
Game 1: November 9, 2025 @ Memphis
OKC 114, MEM 100 | OKC -14 (covered ~9.5)
| Metric | OKC | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 5.3% | 12.4% |
| Pace | 100.2 | 100.2 |
| ORtg | 113.8 | 99.8 |
Notable: OKC held MEM to 99.8 ORtg despite missing Jalen Williams
Game 2: December 22, 2025 @ OKC
OKC 119, MEM 103 | OKC -16 (covered ~10.5)
| Metric | OKC | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 56.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 19.8% |
| Pace | 103.2 | 103.2 |
| ORtg | 115.3 | 99.8 |
Notable: Memphis committed turnovers on nearly 20% of possessions; OKC was missing Chet Holmgren, Hartenstein, Caruso
Pattern: OKC has dominated through turnover differential. Memphis limited to 99.8 ORtg in both meetings. Thunder have covered comfortably in both games.
Rest & Schedule Analysis
OKC Thunder
- Rest: 1 day
- Recent Schedule: 4 games in 6 days
- Travel: Coming from home (OKC → Memphis, ~450 miles)
- Rest Performance: 19-2 (122.9 PPG, 107.0 Opp PPG) on 1 day rest
Memphis Grizzlies
- Rest: 0 days (BACK-TO-BACK)
- Recent Schedule: 3 games in 4 days, 4 games in 6 days
- B2B Performance: 2-3 (112.8 PPG, 118.6 Opp PPG) on 0 days rest
- Last Game: Lost 117-98 to PHO, looked fatigued
Schedule Edge: OKC +2 (significant) - Memphis on grueling B2B after being routed; OKC well-rested comparatively.
Common Opponents Analysis
| Metric | OKC | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Record vs Common | 26-6 | 15-12 |
| PPG vs Common | 122.5 | 117.8 |
| Opp PPG vs Common | 108.0 | 115.0 |
15 Common Opponents: DAL, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MIN, NOP, PHI, PHO, POR, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS
OKC has been elite against shared opponents (+14.5 per game differential vs +2.8 for MEM).
Recent Form (Last 6 Games)
OKC Thunder (4-2)
| Date | Opponent | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/7 | vs UTA | W 129-125 OT | SGA 46 pts, needed OT to beat rebuilding Jazz |
| 1/5 | vs CHO | L 97-124 | Blowout loss, worst game of season |
| 1/4 | @ PHO | L 105-108 | Close road loss |
| 1/2 | @ GSW | W 131-94 | Dominant road win |
| 12/31 | vs POR | W 124-95 | Handled weak opponent |
| 12/29 | vs ATL | W 140-129 | Offensive explosion |
Memphis Grizzlies (1-5)
| Date | Opponent | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/7 | vs PHO | L 98-117 | Listless B2B loss, 18 turnovers |
| 1/6 | vs SAS | W 106-105 | Squeaked by Spurs |
| 1/4 | @ LAL | L 114-120 | Road loss |
| 1/2 | @ LAL | L 121-128 | Road loss |
| 12/30 | vs PHI | L 136-139 OT | Heartbreaker at home |
| 12/28 | @ WAS | L 112-116 | Lost to worst team in NBA |
Form Edge: OKC +2 - Thunder have been inconsistent but still capable of blowouts. Memphis in complete freefall (1-5), lost to Wizards, and looks spent.
Betting Analysis
Current Lines (Consensus)
| Market | Line | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | OKC -4.5 | Seems light given matchup history |
| Total | 226.5 | Reasonable for pace/efficiency |
| Moneyline | OKC -185 / MEM +155 | Implied prob: OKC 65% |
Fair Value Calculation
Baseline Projection:
- OKC L6 Net Rating: +7.6
- MEM L6 Net Rating: -6.2
- Neutral Court Spread: OKC -6.9
Adjustments:
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Home Court (MEM) | -3.0 |
| B2B Fatigue (MEM) | +2.5 |
| Injury Differential | +2.0 |
| Matchup History (15-0) | +1.5 |
| Travel (OKC road) | -0.5 |
| Total Adjustment | +2.5 |
Fair Value Spread: OKC -9.4
Total Projection
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| OKC Projected ORtg | 114.0 |
| MEM Projected ORtg | 106.0 |
| Expected Pace | 102.5 |
| OKC Projected Score | 116.9 |
| MEM Projected Score | 108.6 |
| Fair Total | 225.5 |
Recommended Plays
Primary Play: OKC -4.5 (-110)
Edge: +4.9 points | Rating: 4.5/5 stars
Rationale:
- OKC has covered by 14 and 16 points in two meetings this season
- 15-game win streak in series shows systematic dominance
- Memphis on B2B, completely depleted roster (8 players out)
- Grizzlies have lost 5 of 6 and showed nothing vs Phoenix last night
- OKC’s turnover-forcing defense preys on inexperienced, tired guards
- Fair value is -9.4, getting nearly 5 points of edge
Risk Factors:
- OKC inconsistent recently (7-6 L13, lost to Charlotte by 27)
- Hartenstein/Caruso game-time decisions could limit rotation
- Memphis desperate at home, could get hot shooting night
Secondary Play: 1H OKC -2.5 (-110)
Edge: +2.0 points | Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Rationale:
- OKC has outscored MEM 51-61 and 67-54 in first halves this season
- Memphis B2B fatigue typically shows most in 1H
- Thunder start games strong (elite execution early)
- Gets you out before any garbage time variance
Lean: UNDER 226.5 (-110)
Edge: +1.0 point | Rating: 3/5 stars
Rationale:
- H2H games this season: 214 total and 222 total
- OKC’s half-court defense limits Memphis’ pace preference
- Grizzlies shot 38.5% from field last night, may still be cold
- Both teams’ recent games have trended under
Avoid: Grizzlies ML at +155 - Despite being at home, Memphis has no realistic path to victory without Morant/Edey against a fully healthy Thunder squad.
Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Line | Lean | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGA | Points | 30.5 | OVER | 46 vs Utah, averages 32.6, MEM can’t guard him |
| Desmond Bane | Points | 24.5 | UNDER | Heavy workload, B2B fatigue, 22.3 PPG L6 |
| Chet Holmgren | Rebounds | 8.5 | OVER | No Edey means no rim protection, Chet feasts |
| JJJ | Points+Rebounds | 28.5 | UNDER | Will draw Chet, efficiency drops vs length |
| Jalen Williams | Assists | 5.5 | OVER | Playmaking increased with Caruso potentially out |
Summary
Game Projection: OKC 117, MEM 108
This is a clear situational mismatch. Memphis is playing their 4th game in 6 days, on the second night of a B2B, missing their two best players and several rotation pieces, against a Thunder team that has dominated them for two years. OKC has covered comfortably in both meetings this season despite missing key players themselves.
The 4.5-point spread doesn’t adequately account for Memphis’ injury crisis and schedule fatigue. While OKC has shown vulnerability recently, they’ve been elite against the Grizzlies specifically, and there’s no reason to expect that to change with Memphis at their weakest point of the season.
Best Bet: OKC -4.5
Report generated: January 9, 2026 Data sources: Basketball-Reference, ESPN, NBA.com, Vegas consensus lines