Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
January 10, 2026 | Chase Center, San Francisco
Key Information
- De’Aaron Fox is no longer on the Kings - Traded to San Antonio ~11 months ago for Zach LaVine. This fundamentally changed Sacramento’s identity from a fast-paced, transition-heavy team to one still searching for its identity.
- Kings in catastrophic freefall - Sacramento has lost 6 straight and is 8-29, the worst record in the West. Their L6 net rating of -21.3 is historically bad.
- Sabonis and Murray both OUT - Domantas Sabonis (knee) is out 4-5 more weeks. Keegan Murray (ankle) is out several weeks. LaVine (ankle) also questionable. Sacramento is essentially a G-League roster.
- Warriors 12-5 at home - GSW is a completely different team at Chase Center (12-5, +5.5 net) vs. on the road (8-13, -1.7 net).
- Curry averaging 28.7 PPG - Steph is playing at MVP level and just dropped 33 in a win over Milwaukee. He dominates the Kings historically.
- Line opened at -13.5 - Books are respecting the complete talent disparity despite SAC having 3 days rest vs. GSW’s 2.
Matchup Overview
| SAC | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-29 | 20-18 |
| L6 Record | 0-6 | 4-2 |
| L6 Net Rating | -21.3 | 0.0 |
| Home/Away | 3-16 (Away) | 12-5 (Home) |
| Rest Days | 3 | 2 |
Statistical Profile (L6 Games)
Pace & Efficiency
| Metric | SAC | GSW | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 98.7 | 97.8 | +0.9 SAC |
| Off Rating | 100.6 | 117.9 | +17.3 GSW |
| Def Rating | 121.9 | 118.0 | +3.9 SAC |
| Net Rating | -21.3 | -0.1 | +21.2 GSW |
| PPG | 99.2 | 115.2 | +16.0 GSW |
| Opp PPG | 120.0 | 115.5 | +4.5 SAC |
Four Factors (L6)
| Factor | SAC | GSW | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 48.9% | 56.0% | +7.1% GSW |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 12.4% | +1.3% GSW |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 24.6% | +3.3% GSW |
| FT Rate | 0.195 | 0.225 | +0.030 GSW |
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 59.0% | +2.9% SAC |
| Opp TOV% | 11.0% | 14.0% | +3.0% GSW |
Injury Report
Sacramento Kings
| Player | Status | Injury | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | OUT | Knee | 4-5 weeks - All-Star center, averaging double-double |
| Keegan Murray | OUT | Ankle | Several weeks - Starting SF, key two-way player |
| Zach LaVine | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle | Leading scorer, 20.2 PPG |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | Status | Injury | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Curry | OUT | Thigh/Sciatic | Reserve guard |
| Gary Payton II | DAY-TO-DAY | Ankle | Key defensive guard |
| Al Horford | PROBABLE | Sciatica | Veteran big man |
Injury Impact Summary: Sacramento’s injury situation is devastating. Without Sabonis (their offensive hub), Murray (spacing/defense), and potentially LaVine (scoring), they’re running out a roster that struggles to compete with bottom-tier teams. GSW is relatively healthy with all key pieces (Curry, Butler, Draymond, Kuminga) available.
Trend Analysis
Sacramento Scoring Trend (L10)
- First 5 games: 111.8 PPG
- Last 5 games: 98.8 PPG
- Change: -13.0 PPG (-11.6%)
- Assessment: Severe decline as injuries mount and morale craters
Golden State Scoring Trend (L10)
- First 5 games: 122.4 PPG
- Last 5 games: 114.2 PPG
- Change: -8.2 PPG (-6.7%)
- Assessment: Some regression but still scoring efficiently at home
Rating Trends
SAC L10 Net Rating:
- First half: -6.2
- Second half: -20.8
- Change: -14.6 (massive decline)
GSW L10 Net Rating:
- First half: +7.4
- Second half: -2.8
- Change: -10.2 (some regression, but still competent)
Rest & Schedule Analysis
| Team | Rest Days | B2B | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 3 | No | Extra rest hasn’t helped (3-5 on 2+ days rest) |
| GSW | 2 | No | Strong on 2+ days rest (5-4) |
Sacramento Rest Performance:
- 0 days: 1-5, allowing 129 PPG
- 1 day: 4-18
- 2+ days: 3-5
Golden State Rest Performance:
- 0 days: 5-3, only allowing 110 PPG
- 1 day: 9-11
- 2+ days: 5-4
Home/Away Splits
| Team | Location | Record | Off Rating | Def Rating | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | Home | 5-13 | 107.4 | 117.9 | -10.5 |
| SAC | Away | 3-16 | 109.3 | 122.0 | -12.7 |
| GSW | Home | 12-5 | 118.3 | 112.7 | +5.6 |
| GSW | Away | 8-13 | 112.2 | 113.9 | -1.7 |
Key Insight: Golden State is a completely different team at Chase Center. Their +5.6 net rating at home vs. -1.7 on the road is significant. Sacramento is bad everywhere but slightly worse on the road.
Head-to-Head
Season Series: Sacramento leads 1-0
- Nov 5, 2025 @ SAC: Kings 121, Warriors 116
Context: This was early season when SAC still had Fox (no, wait - Fox was already traded). Actually, at that point the Kings were healthier and caught GSW on the road. The Warriors are a different team at home with Jimmy Butler now integrated.
Common Opponents
| SAC | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-26 | 14-14 |
| PPG | 109.5 | 114.9 |
| Opp PPG | 121.1 | 114.7 |
| Net | -11.6 | +0.2 |
Analysis: Against 16 common opponents, GSW is 14-14 while SAC is a miserable 7-26. The +11.8 differential in record against common foes confirms the massive talent gap.
Betting Lines
| Market | Line | Movement |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | GSW -13.5 | Opened -13.5, holding |
| Total | 229.5-230.5 | Slight movement up |
| Moneyline | SAC +495 / GSW -694 | Heavy favorite |
ATS Records:
- SAC: 13-24 ATS
- GSW: 17-21 ATS
Fair Price Calculation
Spread Analysis
Base projection:
- GSW home efficiency: 118.3 ORtg, 112.7 DRtg (+5.6 net)
- SAC away efficiency: 109.3 ORtg, 122.0 DRtg (-12.7 net)
- Combined differential: 18.3 points
Adjustments:
- SAC injuries (Sabonis, Murray, LaVine?): -3 to -5 points for SAC
- GSW home court: Already baked into splits
- Rest advantage SAC (+1 day): +0.5 points for SAC
- Rivalry/motivation: Slight push (SAC won first meeting)
Fair spread projection: GSW -15 to -17
Market spread: GSW -13.5
Total Analysis
Base projection:
- SAC L6 pace: 98.7
- GSW L6 pace: 97.8
- Expected pace: ~98.2 possessions
SAC projected offense: 100-105 points (devastated by injuries) GSW projected offense: 115-120 points (home efficiency) Total projection: 215-225
Market total: 229.5-230.5
Edge Assessment
Spread Edge
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Fair value | GSW -15.5 |
| Market | GSW -13.5 |
| Edge | +2.0 points on GSW |
| Confidence | Medium-High |
Analysis: The market is showing some respect for the Kings getting rest and having won the first meeting. However, that win came with a healthier roster. With Sabonis out for weeks, Murray out, and LaVine questionable, Sacramento simply doesn’t have the talent to stay competitive. GSW at home with Curry averaging nearly 29 PPG is a buzzsaw.
Total Edge
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Fair value | 219-223 |
| Market | 229.5-230.5 |
| Edge | Under 229.5 |
| Confidence | Medium |
Analysis: The total feels inflated. Sacramento’s offense has cratered to under 100 PPG in their last 6. Even against GSW’s mediocre defense, they’ll struggle to generate quality shots without Sabonis as the hub. GSW doesn’t need to score 120+ to cover this spread - a workmanlike 110-115 performance gets it done.
Recommended Plays
Primary Play: GSW -13.5 (-110)
Rationale:
- Sacramento is fielding a skeleton crew against a home team that’s 12-5 at Chase
- The 21.3-point L6 net rating differential is massive
- Curry has been in MVP form and historically destroys the Kings
- Market is underpricing GSW due to the early season loss and SAC’s rest advantage
- Fair value is GSW -15.5, providing +2 points of edge
Risk: Blowout leads to early garbage time where backups close the gap. GSW rest starters in 4th quarter.
Sizing: 1.5 units
Secondary Play: Under 230.5 (-110)
Rationale:
- SAC’s offense is in freefall (98.8 PPG last 5 games)
- Without Sabonis to anchor the offense, they’ll struggle to crack 100
- Both teams play at moderate pace (97.8-98.7)
- GSW can win comfortably scoring 110-115
- Projected total: 215-220
Risk: Garbage time scoring if blowout. GSW’s defense has been porous at times.
Sizing: 1 unit
Speculative Play: GSW -6.5 1H (-110)
Rationale:
- Warriors typically build early leads at home
- SAC starts slow, especially on the road (122 DRtg away)
- Curry tends to heat up early in home games
- Half-point less risk of garbage time erosion
Sizing: 0.5 units
Market Plan
| Time | Action | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Now | Bet GSW -13.5 | Take current number |
| Pre-game | Monitor LaVine status | If OUT, add to spread position |
| Pre-game | Bet Under if 230+ | Line moving in wrong direction |
| Live | GSW ML if down early | +120 or better |
Final Projection
| Team | Score |
|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 103 |
| Golden State Warriors | 118 |
| Final Margin | GSW -15 |
| Projected Total | 221 |
Summary
This is a mismatch on paper and in practice. Sacramento is:
- Missing their All-Star center for 4-5 more weeks
- Missing their starting SF for several weeks
- Possibly missing their leading scorer
- On a 6-game losing streak with a -21.3 L6 net rating
- Just 3-16 on the road
Golden State is:
- 12-5 at Chase Center with a +5.6 home net rating
- Featuring Curry averaging 28.7 PPG in MVP form
- Relatively healthy with their big 3 (Curry/Butler/Draymond) available
- Coming off a solid win over Milwaukee
The line at -13.5 feels short given the circumstances. The total at 230 feels high given Sacramento’s offensive struggles. Both sides offer value.
Best Bet: GSW -13.5 (1.5u) Secondary: Under 230.5 (1u)
Report generated: January 9, 2026