Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics

January 10, 2026 | 7:00 PM ET | TD Garden, Boston

Key Information

Injury Watch - CRITICAL:

TOR: Scottie Barnes (knee) and Brandon Ingram (thumb sprain) listed questionable. Both have started all 38 games this season. Ingram left last game early, X-rays negative but day-to-day. Jakob Poeltl consistently inactive.
BOS: Jayson Tatum OUT (Achilles - season-long). Josh Minott (ankle) out. No other key injuries reported.

Situational Factors:

Toronto enters on a 3-game win streak despite Quickley needing a buzzer-beating 3 to beat Charlotte 97-96
Boston just snapped a 5-game win streak with 114-110 loss to shorthanded Denver
Both teams on 2 days rest - neutral fatigue factor
Third meeting this season - Boston won both prior matchups (121-113, 112-96 - both in Toronto)

Market Snapshot:

Spread: BOS -8.5 (-110)
Total: 223.5 (opened 223.5)
Moneyline: BOS -340 / TOR +270
ESPN Win Probability: BOS 69.6% / TOR 30.4%

Statistical Profile

Season Records

Team	Record	Home/Away	L6	ATS Season
TOR	23-15	11-7 away	5-1	17-21
BOS	23-13	11-6 home	4-2	21-15

L6 Performance Metrics

Metric	TOR	BOS	Edge
Net Rating	+7.5	+10.6	BOS +3.1
Off Rating	116.8	127.5	BOS +10.7
Def Rating	109.3	117.0	TOR +7.7
Pace	97.8	95.5	TOR +2.3
PPG	116.7	121.3	BOS +4.6
Opp PPG	108.7	111.5	TOR +2.8

Four Factors (L6)

Factor	TOR	BOS	Advantage
eFG%	51.2%	56.7%	BOS
TOV%	9.0%	10.0%	TOR
ORB%	29.7%	31.7%	BOS
FT Rate	0.179	0.153	TOR
Opp eFG%	49.5%	56.1%	TOR

Trends Analysis

Toronto Raptors

Recent Form: 5-1 L6 with hot offense (116.7 PPG) but uneven performance

Blew out GSW 141-127 (OT), ATL twice (134-117, 118-100)
Struggled against quality: Lost to DEN 103-106, needed buzzer-beater vs CHO
Trend: Off rating jumped from 109.2 to 114.7 (last 5 vs first 5 of L10) - improving
Trend: Def rating improved from 112.9 to 108.2 - improving

Rest Performance:

0 days rest: 2-5, 100.1 PPG (catastrophic)
1 day rest: 15-8, 116.8 PPG
2+ days rest: 5-2, 115.3 PPG (favorable for tonight)

Road Splits: 11-7 away, 113.1 PPG, 113.5 ORtg

Boston Celtics

Recent Form: 4-2 L6 with elite offense (127.5 ORtg) but leaky defense

Dominated LAC 146-115, SAC 120-106
Lost to POR 108-114, DEN 110-114 (both at home)
Trend: Off rating surged from 121.0 to 131.8 - improving significantly
Trend: Def rating deteriorated from 110.8 to 118.0 - declining

Rest Performance:

0 days rest: 5-1, 118.2 PPG (elite)
1 day rest: 14-7, 117.8 PPG
2+ days rest: 4-4, 116.6 PPG (mediocre for tonight)

Home Splits: 11-6 home, 117.9 PPG, 123.4 ORtg, 116.5 DRtg

The Jayson Tatum Effect: Boston is 23-13 without their All-NBA star (Achilles tear since playoffs). Jaylen Brown has elevated to MVP-caliber (29.7 PPG L20), Anfernee Simons (acquired via trade) averaging 13.4 PPG with shooting streaks (27 pts, 8 3PM vs CHI).

Head-to-Head Analysis

Season Series: BOS leads 2-0

Date	Location	Result	TOR ORtg	BOS ORtg
Dec 7	Toronto	BOS 121-113	113	121
Dec 20	Toronto	BOS 112-96	104.2	121.5

Pattern: Boston has dominated Toronto in both meetings this season, winning by 8 and 16. Toronto shot poorly (104.2, 113 ORtg) while Boston’s offense hummed. Toronto 0-2 ATS in the series.

Common Opponents (14 shared)

Team	vs Common	PPG	Opp PPG
TOR	16-9	113.9	110.6
BOS	14-9	117.1	111.0

Boston slightly better against shared opponents, though Toronto has played more games.

Projection & Fair Lines

Pace & Scoring Projection

Expected Pace: 96.5 (TOR 97.8, BOS 95.5 average, slight visitor adjustment)
Possessions: ~98

Projected Efficiency:

TOR ORtg: 113.0 (regression from 116.8 L6 against elite BOS offense, Barnes/Ingram concerns)
BOS ORtg: 122.0 (slight regression from 127.5 L6, strong home performance expected)
TOR DRtg: 120.0 (BOS averages 123.4 ORtg at home)
BOS DRtg: 114.0 (regression toward season mean, TOR road offense solid)

Score Projection:

Toronto: 111
Boston: 120
Projected Spread: BOS -9
Projected Total: 231

Fair Value Assessment

Market	Line	Fair Value	Edge
Spread	BOS -8.5	BOS -9	No edge (fair)
Total	O/U 223.5	231	OVER +7.5 pts
Moneyline	BOS -340	~-360	Slight lean BOS

Betting Analysis

The Case for OVER 223.5

Both teams trending up offensively: BOS 127.5 ORtg L6, TOR 116.8 ORtg L6
Defensive slippage: BOS allowing 117.0 DRtg L6, TOR meetings this year averaged 221 total
Pace push: Toronto’s 97.8 pace will slightly elevate possessions
Both teams shooting well: BOS 56.7% eFG L6 (elite), TOR 51.2% eFG L6
Home court scoring boost: BOS averaging 117.9 PPG at home
Recent H2H: Games totaled 234 and 208 (avg 221 with one blowout)

Counter-argument: Toronto’s defense has been excellent lately (108.2 DRtg last 5 games), could slow pace. Ingram/Barnes injuries could limit TOR scoring.

The Case for Toronto +8.5

3-game win streak, 5-1 L6 - team playing with confidence
Improving trends: TOR net rating jumped +10.2 from first half to second half of L10
2+ days rest favors TOR (5-2) while BOS is just 4-4 on similar rest
Public likely heavy on BOS at home after Celtics covered in both prior meetings
Barnes/Ingram questionable but if they play, TOR has full firepower

Counter-argument: BOS 21-15 ATS this season (profitable), dominated TOR in both matchups. Without Tatum, Celtics still elite. Toronto 17-21 ATS shows struggle to cover.

The Case for Boston -8.5

2-0 straight up AND ATS vs Toronto this season (+8, +16)
Home court dominance: 11-6, 123.4 ORtg at TD Garden
Elite ATS record: 21-15 on the season
Raptors injury concerns: Barnes (knee) and Ingram (thumb) questionable
Jaylen Brown revenge tour: 29.7 PPG L20, MVP-level performance

Counter-argument: 8.5 points is a lot for a team that just lost at home to Denver. Toronto has been feisty lately.

Best Bets

Primary Play: OVER 223.5 (-110)

Confidence: Medium-High (3.5/5)

Rationale: Both offenses are clicking (combined 244 ORtg L6). Boston’s defense has regressed (117.0 DRtg L6), and their recent games have been shootouts. Toronto’s offense is improving despite personnel concerns. The prior meetings averaged 221 total with one blowout - expect this to be closer to the 234-point shootout from December 7th. Fair value projects 231 total.

Risk: If Barnes AND Ingram sit, Toronto’s offense could crater. Boston could lock down defensively after embarrassing loss to Denver.

Secondary Play: Boston -8.5 (-110)

Confidence: Medium (3/5)

Rationale: Boston has dominated this matchup (2-0 ATS, +24 margin). Home court bumps their already elite offense. Raptors have injury uncertainty with their two most important players questionable. Toronto’s 17-21 ATS record suggests they struggle to cover, even when winning.

Risk: 8.5 is a key number - many NBA games land between 7-10. Toronto playing with house money if stars are out, could catch a random hot shooting night from role players.

Lean: Pass on Moneyline (-340)

Not enough value laying -340 for a team that just lost at home to a depleted Nuggets squad.

Game Script Scenarios

Scenario 1 - Blowout (30%): Barnes/Ingram both sit or are limited. Boston dominates early, leads by 15+ at half, coasts to 12-15 point win. OVER likely, BOS covers easily.

Scenario 2 - Competitive Loss (40%): Toronto fights hard with full rotation, stays within 6-8 points most of game, loses 115-121 type score. OVER hits, spread is a sweat.

Scenario 3 - Toronto Upset (15%): Quickley/Barrett carry load, Toronto catches Boston flat after road trip. TOR wins or loses by 3 or less. OVER still likely, TOR covers.

Scenario 4 - Defensive Slugfest (15%): Both teams lock in defensively, slower pace, 105-98 type game. UNDER, spread unclear.

Summary

Bet	Line	Rating	Edge
OVER 223.5	-110	3.5/5	+7.5 pts
BOS -8.5	-110	3/5	Slight
BOS ML	-340	2/5	No edge
TOR +8.5	-110	2.5/5	Slight

Key Watch: Monitor Barnes/Ingram status before tip. If both OUT, hammer Boston -8.5 and OVER. If both IN, lean OVER only.

Analysis generated January 9, 2026. Lines from DraftKings. Always verify current odds before placing bets.